(8.1.19) UEFA Europa League Qualifying: Picks + Betting Trends

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Image result for Riga FC Piast Gliwice 2019
In Europa League action today, the road team in the short favorite position (-143 to -101) have gone 7-1, +4.62u’s so far in 2019.

An ROI of +1.44% per wager and $100 bettors have netted +$58 per bet win or lose.
However, overall in 2018, the same parameter finished 8-8, -3.95u, a loss of -$25 per wager win or lose.

Due to the obvious signs that this trend is going to regress, I recommend only staking about 1% on the short road favorite on today’s Europa card.


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Image result for Brondby/Lechia 2019

The draw in matches where the home team is the short favorite has been a decent investment make in the 2019 Europa Qualifying matches.

When the home team is the short favorite, the draw has gone 4-5, +5.07u, an ROI of +1.41% and $100 bettors have netted +$56 per bet win or lose backing the draw in this scenario.

Not only that, but going back to 2018 – the same parameter was profitable going 11-17, +9.1u’s an ROI of +0.81% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$33 per bet win or lose.

So in comparison to last year, you have a smaller win percentage but a higher unit count, meaning there is some room for progress with the 2019 trend.

Back the draw vs the short home favorite in 2019, I have no problem with a solid 3.5% stake in this scenario.

 

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Home teams in 2018 Europa Qualifying matches went 154-157, +11.16u, an ROI of +0.09% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$4 per bet win or lose.

However the home teams have not been profitable so far in 2019, going 74-85, -30.98u an ROI of -0.49% and $100 bettors have lost -$19 per wager win or lose.

This seems like a prime spot to capture some positive regression, however the volume is so high that there is no value in taking a chance at the home teams at high stakes here, this play is only worth a 1% stake across the board.

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Spark Sports: Plays Of The Day

Europa League
3.52% – K. Almaty/H. Beer Sheva (Draw) +269
3.52% – Brondby/Lechia Gdansk (Draw) +276
3.52% – Gzira/Ventspils (Draw) +282
3.52% – Osijek/CSKA Sofia (Draw) +230
1.03% – Piast Gliwice -105
1.03% – IFK Norrkoping -126
1% – Astana, Jablonec, Ludogorets, Eintracht Frankfurt, Guimaraes, Partizan Belgrade, FCSB (Parlay) -105
1% – Zorya, Aberdeen, Apollon Limassol (Parlay) +129
1% – Malmo, Sheriff Tiraspol (Parlay) +105
1% – CS U Craiova, Dinamo Tbilisi (Parlay) +126
1% – Ordabasy +130
1% – Levski Sofia +107
1% – Atromitos +105
1% – Maccabi Haifa +208
1% – Neftci Baku +177
1% – Esbjerg -102
1% – O. Ljubljana +114
1% – Linfield +118
1% – Trnava +104
1% – Viitorul Constanta +198
1% – KuPS +409
1% – Debrecen +492
1% – Hacken +220
1% – AEL Limassol +209
1% – Klaksvik +741
1% – Vaduz +238
1% – Zrinjski +421
1% – Niedercorn +1045
1% – Crusaders +2046
1% – Stjarnan +1041


SparkSportsBestBets
Europa League
$175 – K. Almaty/H. Beer Sheva (Draw) +260
$175 – Brondby/Lechia Gdansk (Draw) +250
$175 – Gzira/Ventspils (Draw) +260
$175 – Osijek/CSKA Sofia (Draw) +240


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