(8.6.19) UEFA Qualifying: Picks + Betting Trends

In 9 games during last year’s Champions League qualifying, the draw hit in 44% of matches in which the home team was a short favorite between -143 and -101.

Image result for Apoel/Qarabag 2019

Backing the draw last year in this scenario bettors went: 4-5, +5.06u an ROI of +1.41% per wager and +$56 per bet win or lose. Backing the draw in this scenario in 2019 has been profitable so far but with a small sample size going 3-1 so far. There should be no hesitation staking at 3.5% on the draw in the same scenario in 2019.


Image result for Brugge/Dyn. Kiev 2019

Betting the Draw in Champions League qualifying has been a profitable venture for many years. Last year, backing the draw in every match during UCL qualifying.
Bettors went 32-55, +25.47u, an ROI of +0.73% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$29 per bet win or lose.

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Image result for Din. Zagreb/Ferencvarosi 2019

As we are about 67% of the way through the qualifying stages and the draw is only sitting at 15-44, +0.45u in 2019. Expect some serious positive progress and profits to come in the coming ties ahead. Last year, from the semi-finals of qualification onto the start of group stage. The draw hit at 50% in the 32 games played. Bettors backing the draw from the semi-finals on went 16-16, +26.19u.

Image result for Red Star/FC Copenhagen 2019
So it is in your best interest to anticipate this trend to become exponentially profitable over the next 4 sets of matches in the next month. But do not over invest on this angle until we you see substantial proof that the draw is on the rise. The most appropriate stake to ride the draws in UCL is at about 1.8% stake. Now load up and let’s chase those draws!


Image result for Sutjeska Niksic europa league 2019

In Europa League qualifying, one of the biggest money making trends last year was the home team. In 2018 qualifying the home team won 49% of the matches, bettors backing the home side went 154-157, +11.16u, an ROI of +0.09% per wager and $100 bettors were netting +$4 per bet win or lose. However, the same can not be said about 2019. Through 64% of the qualification round, the home team has won 47% of the matches, but it looks like the secret is out. Bettors backing the home side this year have went 95-105, -32.48u, $100 bettors are losing $16 per bet win or lose backing the home side. A losing side to be on overall, but there is some progress to be expected as we approach the final legs of qualifying and reach the group stage. Just to try and catch this trend on the upside of things, a simple 1% stake on the home side in Europa is worth a shot across the board.

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Spark Sports: Plays Of The Day

Champions League Qualifying
3.51% – Apoel/Qarabag (Draw) +203
3.51% – Brugge/Dyn. Kiev (Draw) +235
1.83% – Din. Zagreb/Ferencvarosi (Draw) +333
1.83% – PAOK/Ajax (Draw) +233
1.83% – Red Star/FC Copenhagen (Draw) +218

Europa League Qualifying
2% – Sutjeska Niksic, Ararat Armenia +0.5, Riga FC +1 (Parlay) -121
1% – Ararat Armenia +102
1% – Riga FC +149

Champions League Qualifying
$145 – Apoel/Qarabag (Draw) +200
$145 – Brugge/Dyn. Kiev (Draw) +240

Europa League Qualifying
$100 – Sutjeska Niksic, Ararat Armenia +0.5, Riga FC +1 (Parlay) +112

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