AlMac’s 2018 CFB Record: 190-111, +29.71u
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Northern Iowa at (24) Iowa State
(Iowa St -18.5, +20.37 ATS EV)
FBS vs FCS in this one as Northern Iowa travels to Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, IA to take on the Cylones of Iowa State. On the opening full week of college football in the 150th anniversary season – We will see 40 of this years’ 114 FCS vs FBS games. #FearTheFCS is in full effect, and in my opinion we can take advantage of what seems like a small amount of over expectations and hype on the lower division schools. Northern Iowa is ranked 18th in the FCS coming into this game, and Iowa State is ranked 24th in the country in FBS polls. Northern Iowa is looking for it’s third win at Iowa State since 2013. This is a revenge spot that may not be totally priced into the number here. As far as the difference between these two teams. I personally rank UNI no better than 130th ranked Connecticut in all actuality. So if we use UConn’s ranking and put it up against ISU. We are looking at a 35pt difference on a neutral field and 38pts at home which Iowa State will be this weekend. ISU’s Brock Purdy is projected by some to be a top 3 Big 12 QB this season and Breece Hall is a highly touted running back looking to kick start a star-studded college career. My only concern is that if Iowa State leads by a bunch here, we may see some vanilla offense and some extra tight ends or backs on the line – in the later stages of this game – but with the revenge factor on our side. I really like the Cyclones here by a lot. The line hasn’t come out officially because of the fact that this is an extra game more than likely. When it does come out in the North American market, based on what I see in the far off shore markets, this game is going to be Iowa State -18.5 and I absolutely love it at that number. Iowa State should be favored by like 10pts more in this game. I don’t get it.
Trends Worth Tracking
In 2018 – Top 25 teams vs non-Top 25 teams in week 1 of the CFB season went 13-6 ATS.
In 2017 – Top 25 teams vs non-Top 25 teams in week 1 of the CFB season went 17-6 ATS.
You add that together. In the past 2 years. 30-12 ATS following this trend.
Listen wake up early and hammer this line as soon as it comes out because I have a very sneaking suspicion that this line will move and move ALOT.
Eastern Washington at (12) Washington
(Washington -21, +20 ATS EV)
Washington takes on Eastern Washington. Line opened at -21 in far and away places.
This is gonna be an extra game because it’s another FCS vs FBS match up.
Personally I see Washington about 35pts better than Eastern Washington.
You’re getting -21, they’re saying Washington is 18pts better than Eastern Wash on a neutral field. I think that’s absolutely insanity. Call me square. Call me uneducated.
On Saturday you can call me a winner. Take Washington -21. Again, wake up early this is gonna be an extra game on the books. It’s opened out in Europe at -21, it’s probably gonna be moving Saturday morning. I would hammer this as soon as it comes out. Washington -21 vs Eastern Washington
Georgia Southern at (6) Louisiana State
(LSU -27.5, +5.12 ATS EV)
This line opened at -25.5, it has since moved to -27.5, I still don’t think this is enough points. And i’d take sound like a broken record but look. Some of the experts, some of the most successful guys that I know in the industry. They got LSU as the 4th best team in College Football this year. Those same people have Georgia Southern as the 93rd best team in the nation. Again you look at these teams, I see LSU 29.5pts better than Georgia Southern. You add in that Home field advantage, we’re talking 32.5pts and the line is only -27.5, I think there is about 5pts of value on LSU here. I love this play.
Take LSU -27.5 @ Bet365 -110
Mississippi State vs UL Lafayette
(Mississippi St -19.5, +4.45EV)
The Mercedes-Benz SuperDome, in New Orleans Louisiana, is the host of Mississippi St vs UL Lafayette.
The Mississippi State football and men’s basketball programs were placed on three years’ probation Friday after it was found that a tutor committed academic misconduct on behalf of members of both teams, but there will not be a postseason ban.
The Bulldogs were second in FBS in scoring defense last season, limiting opponents to an average of 13.2 points.
Mississippi St opened as a -22.5 favorite, the line has since moved to -19 and it has just recently – moved back towards Mississippi St and is now -19.5 at Bet365 @ -110
I got Mississippi St 23.5pts better than UL-Lafayette
This line is -19.5 i think there is a decent amount of value on Miss St right now.
Take Miss St -19.5 at Bet365 -110
(3) Georgia at Vanderbilt
(Georgia -22.5, +3.86 ATS EV)
So we got Georgia -22.5 at Bet365, It opened at -20.5 and has since moved to where it is now. We’re talking the #3 team in the national as per the AP Poll and the #3 team in the nation as per the expert power ratings. Vanderbilt. Not even in the top 50. I got Georgia about 23pts better than Vandy here. Add in that home field. You’re talking 26pts of difference, and the spread is only -22.5. You’re talking about 3.5pts of value on Georgia. Jump on it now because this line is moving.
Take Georgia -22.5 @ -110 at Bet365
Idaho at (14) Penn State
(Penn State -39.5, +3.2 ATS EV)
Penn State opened at -36.5 and it has since moved to -39.5 and i’ve seen it even as high as -44 in some places. Again I am going against a bunch of line moves moving against me here. I honestly do not care. I am aiming for about 56% this week. If I win 11 of 20. I will be happy. I have gone 4-1 so far ATS this week in college football. So i’m going to be taking some chances here.
With these FCS teams. I talked about it before. I don’t think any of these teams are better than some of the worst teams in the FBS. We’re talking UConn. UTEP. UMass. Rice.
Look, Idaho, Northern Iowa, Eastern Washington. As highly ranked as they are in the FCS. They are not better than any of these teams that I just mentioned.
You look at the power ratings. I got Penn State 39pts better than Idaho and this game is a home game for the Nittany Lions. Add in those 3 maybe 3.5pts if that place is rocking.
You got Penn State 42.5 or 43pts better than Idaho.
Again. Wake up early. This game is still not yet on the board in the north american markets. Wake up early. Grab this EXTRA GAME early. I think Penn State wins this game by 45pts or more to be completely honest.
Take Penn State -39.5
(Buy price is anything lower than -44.5)
Miami (Ohio) at (19) Iowa
(Iowa -22, +2.03 ATS EV)
We got the 19th ranked Iowa they opened -21.5 against Miami Ohio. It has since moved to -22 currently sitting at -22 @ -110 at Bet365. Based on the pre-season power ratings the numbers got Iowa about 21pts better than Miami. Add in that home field advantage. You got a line of -22 when in reality I think this line should be closer to -24
You’re getting about 2pts of value here on Iowa. Take here. Lock that one up.
Houston at (4) Oklahoma
(Oklahoma -23, +1.61 ATS EV)
The lone Sunday game. The #4 AP ranked Oklahoma takes on Houston the #67 team in the nation as per the pre-season power ratings. This is another game, a rare occurrence on my card where I am going with the market move and not against it. This has been a chalky card through and through for me. But i’m willing to do it when i look at these power ratings and the historical trends. I’m not afraid to lay the number. I laid -44 with UCF Thursday night and they won 66-0. When looking at it, I got Oklahoma 21.5 pts better than Houston on a neutral field. So about 24.5pts better at home. The line is -23, you’re getting some line value on this one. It’s a stand alone game i think the place is going to be absolutely rocking. Alot of expectations on Oklahoma this year i think this will be a statement game. Give me Oklahoma -23 @ -110 at Bet365
Indiana vs Ball State
(Indiana -17.5, +2.51 ATS EV)
Indiana takes on Ball St at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis Indiana. Indiana opened as -17pt favorite and have since moved to -17.5, I don’t have much of a handicap on this game besides the trend I am riding with the neutral field favorites. Indiana the #45 team in the nation as per the pre-season power ratings. Ball State #112 team in the nation.
I think there is some value on Indiana here. I got Indiana about 20pts better than Ball State. The line is -17.5, that’s 2.5pts of value.
I like the Hoosiers here take Indiana -17.5 @ -110 at Bet365
(22) Syracuse at Liberty
(Syracuse -18.5, +0.89 ATS EV)
Syracuse takes on Liberty on the road as a -18.5 favorite. This line opened at -17.5 and has since moved a full point against the Orange, but to me this line is still not enough points there is still a lot of value on the Orange here. Based on preseason numbers, Syracuse should be about a 22pt favorite against Liberty on a neutral field and they are on the road as a -18.5 favorite when it seems this line should be closer to -19 or -19.5 Take the Orange here.
Syracuse -18.5 @ Bet365 (-110)
Arkansas State – Southern Methodist
(SMU +115, +0.32EV)
#84 Arkansas St vs #83 SMU as per the pre-season power rankings.
These two teams have a difference of about 0.25pts between them.
Add in that HFA you got Arkansas State about -2.5pts better than SMU which is exactly where the line sits. Arkansas State opened at -3 and has since moved to -2.5. Arkansas State sits at about -134 on the ML vs SMU @ +115.
Trends worth tracking
Last year, fading favorites between -143 and -101 was a profitable campaign. Bettors fading the short favorite went 44-42, +4.34u’s
Take SMU +115 on the ML. Small stake.
Louisiana Tech at (10) Texas
(Texas -20.5, +0.12 ATS EV)
The Texas Longhorns come in as a top 10 team in CFB and take on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at home and the Longhorns are -20.5pt favorites in this one. After last year’s defeat vs Maryland and their scare vs Tulsa, Texas will be coming into this one hoping to wipe the slate clean and by doing so – should be able to win this game by at least 28pts or more in my opinion. If Texas can keep their squad healthy throughout this game and stay out of injury tent, their hopes of breaking down the LATech defense who only allowed 189.6 yards per game last year, 21st in that category – the Texas WR’s will need to stay true to their 32nd best passing offense in the country to break down the LATech DB’s. Give me Texas -20.5 @ Bet365 -110
(9) Notre Dame at Louisville
(Notre Dame -18, +0.07 ATS EV)
Rounds off the slate – on Monday we have the stand alone game, the traditional Monday night college football game on the week before the kick off to the NFL season. Notre Dame are -18pt favorites on the road vs Louisville. This line opened at -16.5 and has since taken money and moved a full point and a half to -18. The overall consensus from the pre-season power ratings has Notre Dame about 21pts better than Louisville on a neutral field. This is a road game for the Irish, so take 3pts away from that 21 and it lands right on where it is right now: Notre Dame -18 @ Bet365 (-110). The number seems right on, but we got the historical trends in our favor. Give me the Irish in this one, -18.
New Mexico State at (21) Washington State
(Washington st -32, +0.07EV)
Alright so finally. We are going to go WITH the market move. We got Washington State, the #21 team in the nation on the AP POll, but the experts only have this team as about the #30 team in the country as per power ratings. But it’s not going to matter here. We’re talking New Mexico State. This team is ranked by the overall expert consensus as the #121 team in the nation in FBS Football.
Based on the Numbers, Washington State is about 29pts better than the Aggies, and that’s just on a neutral field. This is a difference of about 32pts right on which is right where the line is. It moved to -32 from -34 so we know that there is a bit of a correction on the market here. However, I’m going against my power ratings on this one. I’m riding the trend, we don’t really know exactly what either of these teams have, we will know and be able to make power ratings after about 4 or 5 games into the season.
I’m just gonna stick to my system. #21 Washington State vs unranked New Mexico State.
Give me Washington State -32
Florida Atlantic at (5) Ohio State
(Ohio St -27.5, -0.43 ATS EV)
With the Buckeyes, this line opened at -26.5.
I’m honestly not too high on Ohio St this year. Even though they are the number five team ranked in the AP Polls coming into this season. This line should be about -23.5 when I compared to the expert numbers. But look i’m sticking to my system. Ohio State is a top 25, Florida Atlantic is not. So give me the Buckeyes -27.5, it’s a play that’s going against the opening season power ratings. But hey, sometimes you gotta go against your numbers – and that’s what I’m doing – taking the Buckeyes -27.5 at Bet365 -110
South Carolina vs North Carolina
(South Carolina -11.5, -0.84 ATS EV)
Line opened at South Carolina -7.5 and it’s moved all the way to -11.5 now at Bet365
This game takes place at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
South Carolina has won 10 straight games against UNC and UNC hasn’t won a seaosn opener in 5 years, not since 2014. I got South Carolina the #23 team in the country, North Carolina the #63 team in the country. Based on the numbers I have the gamecocks being 10.5 pts better than UNC, and the line is -11.5.
I’m going against the power ratings and going with the chalk
Give me the Gamecocks -11.5 @ -110 at Bet365
Middle Tennessee at (7) Michigan
(Michigan -34.5, -1.23 ATS EV)
So we got Michigan the #7 ranked team as per the AP Polls. The #6 ranked team as per the various expert power ratings. This line opened at -29.5 and has since moved an entire 5pts in the direction of Michigan and now sits at -34.5 globally. Again as a power rating play I would probably go against this, but i’m sticking to my system.
Based on the numbers I have Michigan 30pts better than Middle Tennessee here.
With the home field, you’re getting 33pts and the line is -34.5
I think this line may have moved too far to back against Michigan, but again – I’m going against the numbers and I’m going against the power ratings.
I’m laying the chalk all day long on these Top 25 teams.
Call me crazy, call me a square. You can call me a winner on Saturday night when i post my recap.
Michigan -34.5 @ -110 at Bet365
(11) Oregon vs (16) Auburn
(Auburn -4, -1.56 ATS EV)
#16 on the AP Poll and #8 on the pre-season power ratings. Auburn. vs #11 on the AP Poll and #13 on the pre-season power ratings. Oregon.
This one takes place at Jerry’s World, AT&T Stadium, Arlington Texas.
This is a rematch of the 2011 National Title game.
I feel like the consensus contingent of fans are going to be leaning towards Auburn. Just because of region, i can’t see alot of Oregon alumni living in Arlington Texas.
Besides any of that – which probably doesn’t even matter to be honest.
I got Auburn about 2.5pts better than Oregon and we got a line of -4
This is a play that’s gonna go against my power ratings here once again.
I just think Auburn’s Dline is too strong. I think Oregon’s QB Justin Herbert’s gonna be running for his life most of the game. I get that this number should probably be a bit lower, but as it already opened past the key number of 3. There really was no real chance of it ever crossing through it.
I’m gonna stick to my system. Favorites on neutral fields in the 1st week of the CFB season.
Let’s do it. Take Auburn -4 @ -110 at Bet365
Duke vs (2) Alabama
(Alabama -32.5, -1.02 ATS EV)
This line opened at -30.5, it’s since moved 2pts against Alabama and now sits at -32.5
Again, this is one of those plays that I’m not too keen on but I am going to stick to it because of the Top 25 ATS trend I mentioned earlier.
You got Alabama the #2 team in the Nation taking on Duke who, based on the power ratings is about 28.5pts worse than Bama and the line sits at -32.5
If i was playing straight off the power ratings again i would be off this, but im sticking to it. Alabama -32.5 @ -110 at Bet365
2.2% – Texas -20 (-108)
2.2% – Notre Dame -18 (-108)
2.2% – Ohio St -28 (-108)
2.2% – Alabama -32.5 (-108)
2.2% – LSU -27.5 (-108)
2.2% – Iowa -22.5 (-108)
2.2% – Michigan -34.5 (-108)
2.2% – Georgia -23 (-108)
2.2% – Washington St -32 (-108)
2.2% – Oklahoma -23 (-110)
1.5% – Auburn -4 (-105)
1.5% – Indiana -18.5 (-108)
1.5% – Mississippi St -19 (-108)
1.5% – South Carolina -11 (-105)
1% – SMU +113
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