AlMac’s CFB Week 2 – Weekend Picks

My top 5 picks of the week we’re published at Find them here.


Northern Illinois at (15) Utah
NILL +21.5 (-0.65 ATS EV)

#15 ranked Utah hosts the #86 power rated team in the country Northern Illinois.
Utah is upgraded about a half point after their performance vs BYU last weekend.
Northern Illinois is upgraded about one point after their win over Illinois State in week 1. This line opened at -23 and has since moved to -21.5 in favor of Utah.
I have Utah about 19pts better than NILL on a neutral field and about 22pts better at home. This is another close one where I will be going against the power rating and sticking to my Week 2 system of fading the expectations on Top 25 teams.
Give me Northern Illinois +21.5 @ -115 (via Pinnacle)

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Central Michigan at (16) Wisconsin
CMICH +35 (-0.71 ATS EV)

The #16 ranked Wisconsin takes on the #120 power rated team in the country in Central Michigan, at home in Madison on Saturday. Central Michigan coming off a 38-21 win over Albany in week 1 is upgraded a half point going into week 2. Wisconsin pitched a perfect shutout vs a very underwhelming USF team and is upgraded +1.5 points for this week 2 match up. This line opened up at -33.5 and has since moved to -35. Most power ratings out there have Wisconsin about 32.5pts better than CMICH on a neutral field, 35.5pts better at home. With a line of -35 it sits at about right where it should be as per the expert numbers. Another game where I have to side with my system and the historical trends over the implied power ratings. There isn’t very much value on the Wisconsin side at -35, in a dog or pass game – give me Central Michigan +35 @ -104 (via Pinnacle)


California at (12) Washington
California +13.5 (-0.9 ATS EV)

The #12 ranked team in the country per the AP Pool: Washington takes on the #53 rated team in FBS: California in a Pac-12 show down, Saturday night. Washington’s start to the season was without event as they romped their inner state FCS rival Eastern Washington 47-14. As for California, the Bears took care of business vs their satellite school UC Davis 27-13 in week 1. In all honesty there wasn’t much worth noting from either of these teams’ performances in week 1. This game is the real start of the season for these two teams. Based on the power ratings, Washington is about 11.5pts better than Cal on a neutral field and +14.5pts better at home. The line opened at -12.5 and has since moved to -13.5 in favor of Washington. Once again – going against the power ratings. I have a sneaking suspicion the Bears hang around late and possibly cover through the backdoor.
The preceived value may be slightly leaning towards Washington, but give me California +14 @ -114 (via Pinnacle)

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Army at (7) Michigan
Army +22.5 (-2.02 ATS EV)

Michigan hosts the #74 rated team in the nation, Army on Saturday.
Michigan, the #7 ranked team in the nation as per the AP Poll, opened as -23pt favorites and have since moved to a -22.5pt favorite. This line seems about right on, or at worst – a few points short on Michigan. Based on the power ratings, Michigan is about 21.5pts better than Army on a neutral field and 24.5pts better at home. I can see Michigan winning from anywhere between 19 and 30 points. More than likely Michigan covers, but I am still not overly impressed with what I am seeing from the Wolverines.
Going against the power rating here and stick to the trends. Take Army +22.5 @ -104 (via Pinnacle)


Western Michigan at (20) Michigan State
WMICH +16 (-2.84 ATS EV)

Michigan St is the #20 AP Pool ranked team in the country. Western Michigan comes into week 2 the #77th ranked team in the country as per the expert consensus power ratings.
WMICH is coming off a 48-13 Week 1 victory vs Monmouth and have been upgraded a half point in week 2 based on that performance. Michigan St beat Tulsa 28-7 but did not cover the number in Week 1. They are downgraded -2.5pts for week 2 because of that performance vs Tulsa. The implied value based on the power ratings is on Michigan St here. MSU is about 15.5pts better than Western Michigan on a neutral field and 18.5pts better at home. This game is in East Lansing, the line opened at -17.5 and has since moved all the way down to -16. The market absolutely loves Michigan State here and the power ratings explain why. I have to go against it though. Not my strongest play of the week, but I am backing Western Michigan +16 @ -105 (via Heritage)

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Rutgers at (19) Iowa
Rutgers +20 (-3.6 ATS EV)

The #19 AP Poll ranked team in the country takes on the #100 power rated team in FBS in Rutgers on Saturday. Rutgers coming off a 27pt victory vs UMass in week 1, are upgraded +1pt to get them inside the top 100 on the expert consensus power ratings. Iowa let Miami Ohio stick around for a little bit too long and the possibility of a cover was in jeopardy late but Hawkeyes squeaked the 24pt win and with that covering the spread. An underwhelming performance by Iowa none the less. They are downgraded -1pt in the expert consensus power ratings this week. Regardless of the downgraded. Iowa still sits about 20.5pts better than Rutgers on a neutral field and about 23.5pts better at home.
This line opened at -20.5 and currently sits at -20 and there are -19.5’s available at some places. This is one of those plays that is hard to take because all of the implied value is on the Hawkeyes here. You got a line moving against Rutgers even though a ton of value is on the side of Iowa. It’s not my most confident play of the week, but I still have to do it. Rutgers +19.5 @ -105 (via Heritage)


(22) Syracuse at Maryland
Maryland -2 (-5.52 ATS EV)

#22 AP Poll ranked Syracuse is on the road to take on the #62 power rated team in the country Maryland. Maryland is coming off an epic 79-0 victory against Howard in week 1, they have been upgraded +3 pts after that performance. Syracuse covered the number by just a few vs Liberty, in week 1 in a 24-0 shutout victory. It was a so-so performance and there is no upgrade on Syracuse either way this week. This game is all over the board, Maryland opened at +2.5 underdogs and have since moved to -2pt favorites.
The expert consensus power ratings have Syracuse about 6.5pts better than Maryland on a neutral, 3.5pts better at home. With a spread of -2, there seems to be a ton of value on the Orange but we don’t exactly know why this line has moved so much. Something we do know, ranked road underdogs have not fared well in college football over the past few season. Top 25 AP Poll ranked football teams in college football are 4-19 straight up in their last 23 games. That is something worth keeping track of.
Give me Maryland -1.5 @ -110 (via Bookmaker)



College Football: Week 2
1.6% – Cincinnati +15.5 (-110),
1.6% – Army +22 (-110),
1.6% – Rutgers +18 (-110),
1.6% – Maryland -1 (-110),
1.6% – C. Michigan +35 (-110),
1.6%- Colorado +4 (-110),
1.6% – New Mexico St +56 (-110),
1.6% – Murray St +49 (-110),
1.6% – N. Colorado +40.5 (-110),
1.6% – South Dakota +44.5 (-110),
1.6% – Tennessee Martin +44.5 (-110),
1.6% – Florida Atlantic +12.5 (-110),
1.6% – Nevada +24 (-110),
1.6% – W. Michigan +15.5 (-110)
1.6% – Buffalo +30.5 (-110),
1% – PennSt/Buffalo u56.5 (-110),
1% – Buffalo +30.5, PNST/BUF u56.5 (Parlay) +264
1.6% – Tennesse Martin +44.5 (-110),
1.6% – Tulane +17 (-110),
1.6% – California +13.5 (-110),
1.6% – USC -3 (-110)
1% – Arkansas State (-110)

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