AlMac’s NFL Week 3 – Best Bets

Atlanta @ Indianapolis

Trends worth Tracking:

2019 ML Trends:
Favorites (IND) have won 64.5% of games so far in 2019: 20-11-1
Home Favorites (IND) have won 57.8% of games so far in 2019: 11-8
Away Teams (ATL) have won 54.8% of games so far in 2019: 17-14-1

2019 ATS Trends:
Away Dogs (ATL) have COVERD: 72.2% of games so far in 2019: 13-5-1
Away Teams (ATL) have COVERED 67.7% of games so far in 2019: 21-10-1
Underdogs (ATL) have COVERED 58% of games so far in 2019: 18-13-1

Atlanta ATS Trends:
ATL: 3-7 ATS in last 10 games.
ATL: 3-9 ATS in last 12 games following a win.

Indianapolis ATS Trends:
IND: 5-2-1 ATS in last 8 games on turf.

H2H Trends:
Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last 5 games.
Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Expectations Upgrade/Downgrade:
TeamRankings.com has upgraded the Falcons up 1 spot to the #15 team in the NFL and have been upgrade +0.4pts on their power ratings. The Colts have been upgraded 2 spots on the TeamRankings power ratings to the #17 spot in the NFL, and are upgraded by +1.1pts on the power ratings. Between these two teams, on an Indianapolis home field; the Colts are rated +2.6pts better than the Falcons.

Atlanta Defensive Ratings:
The Falcons are downgraded on my personal NFL ‘Defensive Efficiency’ power ratings (via SparkSports.ca) down 1 spot to the #22 defense in the NFL. The Falcons improved on defense from week 1 to week 2 by +3.67% on defensive efficiency. The Falcons after two weeks of football have averaged 11.6 pts per point (2nd), they have allowed an average of 277.5 yards per game (3rd), and have allowed 23.9 points per game (22nd). The Falcons go into week 3 with a defensive efficiency rating of 25.1%, meaning the Falcons’ opponents have needed an average of 25.1% of their total yards per game to score 6pts.

Atlanta Offensive Ratings:
The Falcons improved their offense by +16.72% efficiency after their week 2 victory over the Eagles. The Falcons have an average of 19.8 yards per point (24th), they average for 356 yards per game (17th) and have averaged for 18pts per game (24th). With that the Falcons go into week 3 with the #24 offense in the league as per my offensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca)

Indianapolis Defensive Ratings:
The Colts improved their defensive rating by +5.52% after their come back victory against the Titans in week 2. The Colts defense held the Titans to a 3rd down conversion rating of just 10%. With that performance the Colts move up 2 spots on my defensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca) after 2 weeks the Colts defense have allowed 14.4 yards against per point against (22nd), the Colts have allowed an average of 338.5 yards per game (14th) and have allowed an average of 21.5pts per game (21st) – going into week 3 the Colts have a defensive efficiency rating of 25.5%. The #21 defense in the NFL.

Indianapolis Offensive Ratings:
The Colts offense experienced some regression in week 2 and their offensive efficiency rating dropped by -2.78%, however because of mis-steps offensively by teams like the Texans, the Panthers, the Lions, the Chargers and the Saints. The Colts were still upgraded 5 spots in the offensive efficiency ratings. The Colts go into week 3 with a yards per point average of 15.4 (11th), the Colts have averaged 332 yards per game (22nd) they have also averaged 21.5pts per game (14th) With that, the Colts go into this game against the Falcons as the #14 offense in the league with an offensive efficiency rating of 27.8%

Atlanta Net/Net:
The Falcons come into week 3 as the #23 team in the NFL as per Net Efficiency with -8.3%. However, after week 2 the Falcons improved immensely in the ‘net yards per play’ ratings. After two games the Falcons average 5.6 yards per play on offense and average an allowed 4.6 yards per play on defense. Giving them a net rating of +1 and a power rating of +5, the 8th best in the league.

Indianapolis Net/Net:
The Colts come into week 3 as the #16 NFL in Net Efficiency rating with -2.3%. As far as ‘net yards per play’ goes the Colts sit as the #23 ranked team in the NFL in that regard. After two weeks, Indianapolis has averaged 5.2 yards per play on offense and have allowed an average of 5.9 yards per play on defense. A net rating of -0.7 and a power rating of -3.5, the 9th worst in the NFL so far.

AlMac’s Best Bet:
The Falcons have been gifted an opportunity to get ahead in the NFC South with Drew Brees and Cam Newton dealing with injuries. The door has swung wide open for the Falcons to take control of this division – but first – they must focus on defeating the Colts in week 3.

Jacoby Brisset is off to a hot start, he’s completed 69.1% of his passes with and has five touchdowns and one interception. Running back Marlon Mack is 3rd in the league with 225 total rushing yards. Defensively the Colts have also shined. However. Mack did not practice Wednesday and is now known to have a nagging calf injury that may keep him out of key touches in this game, if he even plays at all.

This game looks like it might come down to who can protect the ball better. The Falcons come into this one tied for the third worst turn over differential in the league after two weeks with -3, the Colts are sitting at even in that category.

At the end of the day, I have these teams about the same as per points better than an average team. I may have the Colts rated about half a point better than the Falcons on a neutral field.

However, at home I think the Colts are probably about 3pts better than the Falcons, I think this game comes down to a final possession or down to a field goal kick, either way it’s going to be tight.

The Colts have a slightly better defense and a marginally more efficient offense, even with Marlon Mack out of the equation I still think the Colts take care of the ball better than the Falcons who have struggled to get points in the end zone so far this year and in previous years under head coach Dan Quinn. I think the Colts have what it takes to cover this number which at that number is implying the Falcons are the better team, something I have to disagree with.

This line opened up on the look ahead as the Colts -2.5, it has since moved to Colts -1 where it currently sits now. I think there is about 2pts of value on the Colts here. This game should be Indy -3 and it’s -1.

I will be on the Colts -1 @ -107 (via Pinnacle)


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Carolina @ Arizona

Trends worth Tracking:

2019 ML Trends:
Favorites (ARZ) have won 64.5% of games so far in 2019: 20-11-1
Home Favorites (ARZ) have won 57.8% of games so far in 2019: 11-8
Away Teams (CAR) have won 54.8% of games so far in 2019: 17-4-1,

2019 ATS Trends:
Away Dogs (CAR) have covered 72.2% of games so far in 2019: 13-5-1
Away Teams (CAR) have COVERD 67.7% of games so far in 2019: 21-10-1
Underdogs (CAR) have COVERED 58% of games so far in 2019: 18-13-1

Arizona ATS Trends:
ARZ is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win.
ARZ is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 vs the NFC.

Carolina ATS Trends:
CAR is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss.
CAR is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Expectations Upgrade/Downgrade:
TeamRankings.com downgrades the Panthers a half point and one spot in their ratings down to the #19 team in the NFL. The Cardinals are upgraded 3 spots and +0.75pts going into week 3 and sit currently as the #27th team in the NFL as per their power ratings. Based on those numbers, Carolina is about +4.5pts better than Arizona on a neutral field and about +1.5pts better than the Cardinals on the road.

Arizona Defensive Ratings:
Arizona going into week 3, average an allowed 11.6 yards per point on defense (31st). The Cardinals allow an average of 458.5 yards per game (31st) and average 25.1 points against per game (25th). After week 2 the Cardinals were downgraded 7 spots on my defensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca) even though they improved on defense by +1.68%, teams like Carolina, Indianapolis, Cleveland and Tampa all improved marginally better than them – leaving the Cardinals as the #24th ranked team in the league in defensive efficiency with a rating of 23.9%.

Arizona Offensive Ratings:
The Cardinals come into week 3 with the #12 spot on my offensive efficiency ratings. Overall from week to week they actually declined slightly but were still upgraded because of poor offensive performances by other teams. The Cardinals have a yards per point average of 16.7 on offense, they have average 368 yards per game and 22points per game. Giving them an offensive efficiency rating of 27.2%

Carolina Defensive Ratings:
Carolina comes into week 3 with an allowed yards per point average of 12.8 (30th), the Panthers have allowed an average 319 yards against per game (12th), and have allowed on average 24.9 points per game (23rd). After week 2 the Panthers improved their defensive efficiency rating by +4.13% and have moved up two spots to be the #23 ranked team in the league as per defensive efficiency.

Carolina Offensive Ratings:
The Panthers come into week 3 with the #16 spot as per my offensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca). Carolina is downgraded going into this week by 3 spots with a decline of -7.14% on their rating. The Panthers have a yards per point average of 17, they have averaged 347.5 yards per game and have scored on average 20.5 pts per game. Giving them an offensive efficiency rating of 29.4%

Arizona Net/Net:
The Cardinals come into week 3 with the #17 spot in my net efficiency ratings. As far as ‘net yards per play’ goes, the Cardinals average 5.4 yards per play on offense and give up an average of 6 yards per play on defense. A net rating of -0.6 and a power rating of -3. With that, the Cardinals are the 22nd rated team in the NFL so far in that category.

Carolina Net/Net:
Carolina comes into week 3 with the #18 spot in my net efficiency ratings at -5.3%. When it comes to ‘net yards per play’ the Panthers average 5.1 yards per play on offense and give up an average of 4.9 yards per play on defense. Giving them a net rating of +0.2 and a power rating of +1. At that number the Panthers are the 14th rated team in the NFL in that category so far in 2019.

AlMac’s Best Bet:
For me this game all comes down to a few non-obvious factors. Cam Newton is ruled out of this game Former Houston Cougar QB Kyle Allen will get the start for the Panthers in this one. Allen has only ever started one NFL game and that was week 17 last year in a win vs the Saints. In that game Allen went 20/31 for 266 yards and a completion rating of 64.5%. So for me here you look at these two defenses, the Panthers are marginally better than Arizona, giving up about 100 less yards on average in their two games, yet still giving up roughly the same amount of points as the Cardinals. Offensively, my numbers give the edge to Arizona but that is exactly what I think the deciding factor is for me here. The only reason why Carolina has struggled offensively is because Cam Newton has been hurt since the start of the season and has not been serviceable as a QB. I think if they get Allen in there and let a healthy QB with a – some what – competent head coach, we can see some improvement from this team. I think the Panthers can be better than what we have seen so far – if they run this offense through Christian McCaffrey and give him some outlets where his opponent actually thinks there is even a slight possibility of Carolina throwing the ball down the field – which is what hasn’t been the case for the past two weeks with Cam behind the center. Also I think another major factor here is going to be the defense. Even with an injured Cam Newton the Panthers have still be profitable in yards per play. 5.1 on average on offense, 4.9 on average on defense – a net rating of +0.2. You look at the Cardinals, even with a healthy QB and a decent amount of healthy offensive weapons, the Cardinals average 5.4 yards per play but have allowed an average of 6 yards against per play, leaving them with a net rating of -0.6. The public perception here is that the Panthers will be a lesser team without Cam at QB, but if we really think about it – don’t we think if Newton has been hurt since the start of the season and the Panthers have still be a profitable net/net team – that the Panthers are only going to improve; if they have an even slightly capable replacement ?? I think the answer is yes. Especially when we have a fully capable QB on the other side of the ball in Kyler Murray with Arizona – who’s team is still not net profitable on yards per play. It comes down to the fact that I think the offensive weapons and the overall scheme for the Panthers is better than the Cardinals. I like the Panthers here. The line opened on the look ahead with the Cardinals being +3.5pt underdogs, that has since moved to Arizona -2, we did see some -2.5 when Newton was still listed as the started – it seems as though some of the bettors have the same mind set as me because we’ve seen this number now move back to Arizona -2. I think we have a classic case of – the back up might not be better, but he is healthy.

My most successful ATS power ratings have the Panthers and Cardinals as about dead even here, so based on that I think this line should be closer to pick’em. I think there is a bit of false expectations on the Cardinals coming into this. At absolute best on home field the Cardinals are about 2.5pts better than the Panthers. I feel like if you wait, we might see some money come in on the Cardinals closer to kick off here, we might be able to get some value. This is a standard bet for me right now but if this one moves into the range of -3, it will be a sure fire big time play for me this weekend.

As of now, I like the Panthers – give me Carolina at the current number. I wouldn’t hesitate to take them on the ML here as well.

I am taking: Carolina +2 @ -106 (via Pinnacle)


Bet on MyBookie

Chicago @ Washington

Trends worth Tracking:
(CHI) Since 2016, teams that have started 0-2 ATS have gone 16-5 ATS in Week 3 over the past three years combined.

2019 ML Trends:
Away Favorites (CHI) have won 75% of games so far this season: 9-3-1
Favorites (CHI) have WON 64.5% of games so far this season: 20-11-1
Away Teams (CHI) have WON 54.8% of games so far this season: 17-14-1

2019 ATS Trends:
Away Teams (CHI) have COVERD 67.7% of games so far this season: 21-10-1
Away Favorites (CHI) have COVERED 61.5% of games so far this season: 8-5
Underdogs (WSH) have COVERED 58% of games so far this season: 18-13-1

Washington ATS Trends:
Washington are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.
Washington are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 appearances on Monday Night Football.

Chicago ATS Trends:
Chicago are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a win.
Chicago are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs teams with a losing record.
Chicago are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC.
Chicago are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Chicago are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games in September.

Head to Head Trends:
the ROAD team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 Chicago vs Washington games.
The UNDERDOG is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 Chicago vs Washington games.

Expectations Upgrade/Downgrade:
Washington comes into week 3 downgraded by -0.25pts and 1 spot on the TeamRankings.com power ratings. They currently sit as the #29 rated team in the NHL as per their power ratings. Chicago on the flip side are upgraded +0.25pts on their power rating and one single spot to land as the #13 team in the NFL as per the TeamRankings.com ratings. As per these ratings, the Bears are about 6.5pts better than Washington on a neutral field, so about 3.5pts better at home and this line currently sits at -4. With that it seems as though the TeamRankings power ratings are siding with Washington on this one, something I must disagree with.

Washington Defensive Ratings:
Washington performed slightly better in week 2 than in week 1 and improved their defensive efficiency rating by +0.27%, however they are downgraded 3 spots this week in my defensive efficiency ratings. Washington allows an average of 14.4 yards per point, 455 yards per game and have allowed an average 31.6 points per game. With that, Washington has a defensive efficiency rating in week 3 of 19% – tied for 30th in the league and tied with the NY Giants for the second worst defensive rating in the NFL.

Washington Offensive Ratings:
Washington’s offense, even though they regressed about -2.83% on their offensive efficiency rating after week 2 – was still upgraded 3 spots because of the failures of other teams in that category. After two games, the Washingtons have gained an average 13.6 yards per point, they average 326.5 yards per game and have scored an average 24pts per game. I have Washington on my offensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca) as the 10th best offensive team in the NFL.

Chicago Defensive Ratings:
The Bears, even with a less than average defensive performance in week 2 vs the Broncos, and even with a -9.95% reduction in their defensive efficiency rating – Chicago still has impressive numbers so far in 2019 on the defensive side of the football. Chicago has allowed an average 24.4 yards per point against, they have averaged only 292.5 yards against per game after two weeks, and have only allowed an average 12pts against per game. I have Chicago on my personal defensive efficiency ratings (via SparkSports.ca) as the #3 defensive team in the NFL.

Chicago Offensive Ratings:
As great as Chicago’s defense has been they have been atrocious on offense so far this season, much in part to the sub-par performance by Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky. The Bears average 27.7 yards per point, they have only gained an average 263.5 yards per game and have scored an average 9.5pts in the first two games of this season. It has taken the Bears on average 63.1% of their total yards per play to score against their opponent, with that number I have them rated as the #30 offense in the NFL so far this season.

Washington Net/Net:
Even with Washinton’s decent offense, their defense is not good enough to keep them profitable on the net efficiency ratings, as well as ‘net yards per play.’ Washington averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows an average 6.7 yards per play on defense. A net rating of -0.9 and a power rating of -4.5pts, the #25 team in the NFL.

Chicago Net/Net:
Chicago’s issues on offense have been a glaring issue. They are a net/net -13% when it comes to efficiency. As for ‘net yards per play’ the Bears are sitting at dead even. 4.4 yards per play on offense, 4.4 yards per play on defense. A net rating of +0 and a power rating of 0.

AlMac’s Best Bet:
Going to make it very simple. The Bears are the #3 defensive in the league. Washington is the #30 defense in the league. Washington has a net power rating of -4.5pts and the Bears have a net power rating of +0. The line opened on the look ahead at Washington +4, and moved to 4.5 and now moved back to +4. I think this is the spot where Chicago gets their offense back on track. I have Chicago about 19.5pts better than Washington with all things considered here. Especially when you look at these two teams defense. I think there is a ton of value. This line should atleast be -7, and it’s sitting at -4.

I will be on Chicago -4 @ -102 (via Pinnacle)


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