Odds Shark Computer Model Picks:
Spark Sport’s CFL Net Yards Per Play Model:
A big time duel for first place in the East awaits both Ottawa and Hamilton on Saturday afternoon. The Ti-Cats are coming off back to back loses to the Riders, very disappointing showing at home vs Sask in their last game – Sask ran the football heavily and Hamilton had very little to answer back.
This is Hamilton’s first divisional opponent all season long – every game up until this point Hamilton has played a western conference team – it is the first of many divisional match ups for the Ti-Cats heading into the 2H of the summer. This is their second game in a row at home – again, it’s is another big bounce back spot for the home team. The TiCats are going to be motivated big time coming into this game coming off the news of this blockbuster trade – they know that ownership and management want to compete and want to contend. Expect a slightly above normal home field advantage for the Ti-Cats who’s crowd is probably going to be energized and refreshed from the news of this trade – especially after that poor performance last week vs Sask.
Hamilton is going to have a big time chip on their shoulder after being some what embarrassed by a team that isn’t all that impressive in the Riders. Look for June Jones to have his guys focused and ready to execute for this one. It’s put up or shut up time for them right now. The Ti-Cats would like to put an end to this cloud of doubt that has been creeping in on them over the past few weeks.
Remember Ottawa started slow vs BC last week – it took them awhile to find their footing – then the RedBlacks started to play a fast, more up tempo style of game – going to the no huddle offense at one point – it worked well for them for the most part – then they started to get away from their game a little – they let BC back into the game, it wasn’t until Ottawa got back to that no huddle – fast paced style that they could put together that game winning TD drive at the end of the game.
Jeremiah Masoli’s performance last week was his worst since being promoted to the starting role in Hamilton. Masoli threw for just 184 yards, had an interception and a fumble in his week 6 loss to the Riders. Masoli has been slightly better than average, but hasn’t faced much adversity since coming into this role – a bounce back could be in order, but don’t hold your breath just yet.
Going forward, look for Ottawa to be more open to playing that style – they know they can execute at this fast pace – so it’s probably a forgone conclusion that we are going to see alot of that from Ottawa in this game. Because of that – I really love the over – especially adding into the fact that Hamilton is going to be energized, Masoli is going to be far more relaxed with Manziel not being in the shadows – ready to take his spot at any given moment. Masoli can play with less caution and will more than likely have less performance anxiety headed into this game – which looked to be a factor in the deciding moments in their last game vs the Riders. He will be looking to reestablish himself as the dominant QB for the Ti-cats – he will probably try to make some big plays early – get himself into the game.
A big time factor to remember here though is that Hamilton will have holes on their o-line because of the players they lost in the Manziel trade. Another huge reason why I really like the over here.
Watch out for Ottawa running back William Powell, he will get to run against a Ticats defence that is last in the league with 139.6 rushing yards allowed per game. Hamilton also allows 6.5 yards per carry and allowed 218 yards rushing vs a normally pass-oriented Saskatchewan team.
Redblacks QB Trevor Harris had a big bounce back performance vs the BC Lions in week 6. Harris threw for 363 yards and a TD on 33 of 44 passing. He will help the over here as well.
Ottawa is going to be playing a high octane up-tempo brand of football – because of that – I can see there being a large margin of error, the over is a beautiful play here in my opinion – also if you access to props, i would bet the over on turn overs and probably both team totals over as well.
Ottawa is slightly more efficient than Hamilton on offense with 2 yards per point less than Hamilton – However, Hamilton out gains what they give up on D per play – by 0.74 yards, where as Ottawa gives up 0.46 more yards per play than what they gain on offense. Giving Hamilton a +3.5 power rating and Ottawa a -2.5 power rating. Add in home field advantage, where Hamilton already has an above average HFA, add in the fact that they just made a block buster trade to better their team. Hamilton is probably going to roll. Hamilton (1H) -3 looks really good to me as well. AlMac also LOVE absolutely LOVE the over.
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|($25) – HAM Tiger-Cats (HT/FT) (Win/Win) -110,|
|($50) – OTT Redblacks (Over 24.5) -120,|
|($50) – HAM Tiger-Cats (Over 31.5) -120|
|($100) – OTT/HAM o55 (-113),|
|($50) – HAM Tigercats -5.5 (-110),|
|($50) – HAM Tigercats (1H) -3 (-110)|