Hey folks. Al Mac here.
It’s been an absolute roller coaster of a world cup so far from a gambling perspective for me – there was some big highs especially at the very start of the tournament – I was up 65+ units at one point after 6 or 7 days – I was betting pretty aggressively at the start of the tournament and got to where I wanted to be; bank roll wise and I was kind of just coasting over the second week – and then a bunch of big upsets during the final group matches happened and really screwed things up for me. Germany losing was a big loss for me, The Swiss tying Costa Rice was a big loss for me. The England loss to Belgium – when everyone was expecting them to play to a tactical draw; was also a big loss for me. So it’s been a bit of a disappointment for the last 48-72hrs of the tournament. But we are here to to bounce back in the elimination stage – and we’re gonna go back to the basics and reset all of my concepts.
I feel like – alot of people have been struggling with this tournament – but in my opinion, to be honest, it seems to me – this world cup has been easier to make money on than what it first seemed. like, if you just pay attention to the trends and pay attention to the way these teams are situated in the group stage and accounting for how tight they are going to play in these elimination games. I think you can squeeze out alot of value in
these games. now – i say that and i’ve lost a whole lot of units over the past couple days – but at one point i was over 50units in just a couple days of this tournament. So, I think there are factors that we are seeing in this tournament that you don’t normally see in regular club soccer betting – and that’s 1. on the world stage – these teams are under so much pressure from their country and their supporters and so much scrutiny that they play very tight and very discipline and very safe – so you don’t see alot of teams taking chances on offense and stuff like that.
Also, the number 2 factor – with these big tournaments – i think i heard on VSiN or BCC, that there is an estimated 3 billion people that will watch the World Cup. Now I know only a small percentage of those people will place wagers on these games – but,
even a small percentage of 3 billion is a large amount of people and that is a large amount of money that is being bet – by people who don’t normally wager – who
probably would place a wager every 2 to 4 years, give or take – whenever there is one of these big – international soccer tournaments – so you are getting alot of square, alot of national pride, alot of rooting interest money, alot of public support money for teams – so alot of these lines are being inflated massively – and you can compare it to i guess – the NFL playoffs, or more specifically the Super Bowl – there is so much money coming in on these games that there is a lot of value that can be found within these game odds.
Whether it be fading a public team, or betting an under when the total line gets inflated, betting a +1 or +1.5 on a dog when that line has been super inflated because of the public action. So, there is alot of value betting these matches.
So let’s take a look at them all – We’re gonna go through all of the Round Of 16 matches one by one and we’re going to start with the Saturday games…
France should win this game – but they may play scared.
They are young, the pressure could get to them. especially if the crowd is as crazy as it was in the Argentina game vs Nigeria. It was a very pro-Argentina crowd. France are the favorites – but they will be under a lot of pressure.
The expectation is for France to win but they have a bad coach, and usually play wimpy football – France will be worried about Argentina’s attack and likely field a weak line up – I’d still bet Both teams to score here. Argentina’s D is very weak and France has a good young potent offense. I like France here but Argentina is riding very high after that Nigeria win and advancing to the knock out stage.
As for France, Mbappe is brilliant. Greisman is brilliant, I just don’t know how France lines up against Argentina – they may be scared of Messi’s fire power. Messi is only real offensive threat on the Argentinian side, but France has a tendency to respect these types of players too much – and may field a more defensive line up because of it.
Dybala, Higuin and Aguero are compliments to Messi – but besides just being names on paper that appear on the same side – they are not much else – this combo of players plays with no chemistry on the pitch, and we’ve seen that in the first 3 games Argentina has played.
With a big Argentinian crowd – if France does play tentative and wimpy – this could possibly turn into a back and forth track meet. There is value on the Argentinian side, especially if you play it on Argentina/Draw. Again, both teams should score in this match.
If you are backing Argentina or the draw; you should hope that France will field and attacking line up. 2H over might be a play as well. May also, possibly be looking at the over in the full game as this match up has a potential open up.
I do believe like any team with international stars – France could have so much arrogance because of their collective talents that they – may – screw things up because of it. But if France can get ahead early and stay tight – this is a team that was one goal away from a Euro Cup title in 2016. In the end, I believe France will advance.
It’s a very interesting match up. I am not as high on France in this match up as i am on Portugal vs Uruguay.
Hedge by using – Argentina – Draw/No Bet
Portugal comes into this match ranked 4th in the world when the rankings were updated just before the tournament earlier this month.
This is their 6th appearance in the world cup – they have advanced past the round of 16 only twice. They won the UEFA Euro Cup in 2016.
Now, let’s be clear. The Portugal won the Euro Cup in 2016, that tournament – and that team – was much more of a defensive affair than this WORLD Cup is. The 2016 Euro Cup was dominated by 0-0 matches and 1-0 matches, in the knock out stage alot of 0-0
matches than went to extra time or penalties. So considering it took us until the 3rd round of games in the group stage to get our first nil-nil draw which
just happened between France and Denmark. I think it’s safe to say there is a much different style of play happening here – at least in the round of 16 – but what
i expect going forward is you will see teams tighten up immensely on both sides of that ball – you’re gonna start to see these nil-nil draws and this more modern European national team game – teams are going to slow the pace down and more than likely sit back and feel each-other out before trying to go for any type of offensive flair.
Uruguay have a very good defense. Among the most balance in the world, and they have 2 exceptional strikers in Suarez and Cavanni . They haven’t conceded a goal yet in the tournament. Albeit they haven’t played much competition either – to be honest – which i think is a big factor here – they’ve played Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia – none of those teams have much of a threat against Uruguay going into the games and Uruguay played right up to the measure of expectation against their opponent in every game. We expected Uruguay to beat every team and they did – without much of a problem – but not alot of people were expecting them have any problem with the teams in their group.
So in the end, when comparing Uruguay to Portugal – Cavanni may be the difference maker in this match – Uruguay has two very good strikers as opposed to Portugal who really only has one REAL offensive threat – Ronaldo complimented by a plethora of play makers. Cavanni plays for PSG, he scores more than Neymar. He gets criticized for missing lots of chances, so he will be looking to execute in this important match up Uruguay.
Urugay are the favorite in this match up – but, even the people that have ripped on Portugal in this tournament can admit that – they are tough to score on
Uruguay on the other hand – basically has the back field of Athletico Madrid so they are very familiar with Ronaldo. So expect this game to be tight.
I do think this game will be a draw and will go into extra time – so be careful – if you like Portugal to win – do not bet Portugal 3-way, because you’ll lose that bet if this game goes to ET, which is 90m plus stoppage time – So if you like Portugal – bet them to advance.
I don’t think there is anyway Uruguay beats Portugal. Alot of people disagree with me – I just think Portugal has a whole other level when they are up against adversity – they have a veteran team – I wouldn’t say they are calm cool and collected – because no one really is in soccer – at least not in international soccer – but they are clutch under pressure.
Portugal is going to advance after penalties. Bet Portugal to advance, 1H draw, u2.5. I wont have Portugal in any parlays or anything like that – simply because i know, after losing these – what seemed like sure thing bets during the group stage – i know now that anything can happen – so I will not compound loses – not going to parlay Portugal with anything, but i do like them to advance – and ill have a single wager on that.
Take nothing away from Uruguay – they have a skilled, veteran squad but i just don’t think they have enough to get past the will of Portugal.
Uruguay/Portugal Under 2.5 is a bank roll builder.
There will be Cards: Uruguay/Portugal
Here comes the action.
It’s going to be either be a South American show down in the quarter finals between Uruguay and Argentina, a showdown between Ronald and Messi, or a Portugal vs France – rematch of the 2016 Euro Cup Finals. I guess – we could also see Uruguay vs France too – all 4 of those possibilities mean – that this is a really good part of the field – and i think that whoever comes out of these 4 teams – is going to have a huge chance at winning the World Cup.
Now that we’ve gotten to the knock out stage of the tournament -I feel it’s going to revert back to alot more like what we saw in the Euro 2016 tournament. Alot of 0-0 draw, alot of underdogs trying to push the games to penalties. I will be betting the 1H draw, 1H under in all of these matches – also if you like the favorite – bet it now and bet to advance not to win the match, if you bet the dog – wait and try to get a good number on draw no bet or the double chance with the draw factored in their because these under dog teams are going to be pushing the game to that point. So, I can not stress this enough: there is A TON of value on just blindly betting 90 min draw and 1H draw in these matches. The last big competition we saw a ton of games go to ET.
If you like the under, bet it now if you like the over – wait , again these lines are going to get very inflated.
There is alot of people out there who know the game better than we do and have much bigger pockets – so keep that in mind going forward. But on the other hand – keep in mind that lots of people don’t have a clue about the game of soccer – have bigger pockets – and are blinded by their heritage or national pride. That’s why there is so much value in these matches. It’s like the Super Bowl x10.
This is a unique World Cup because 7 or 8 teams in this knock out stage can win this tournament – there is no outright favorite – the field is wide open here.
This World Cup will be won by the most defensive and most boring team in the Tournament which is Portugal, i think they are going to use the same formula they used in the 2016 Euro Cup and that is to just lock up the neutral zone and push these games as long as they can go to try and catch a break.
Plays I will be making in every match:
90min – Draw
Parlay under goals.
Both Teams to Score – No.
Here are my World Cup 2018 Bracket Winners:
Round of 16 Winners
QTR Finals Winners
Semi Final Winners
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($25) – France/Argentina – Both Teams To Score: Yes (+110)
($100) – France (Over 0.5, Over 1.5 2H Corners), Argentina (Under 1.5), (Combo) -110
($50) – France/Argentina (Over 0.5 Goals 2H), France Over 1.5 2H Corners, Argentina Over 1.5 2H Corners (Combo) +150
($50) – Portugal (To Advance) -125
($50) – Portugal/Uruguay (1H Draw), France/Argentina (1H Draw) (Parlay) +250
($100) – Portugal/Uruguay (1H Under 1), France/Argentina (1H Under 1) (Parlay) +113
($100) – Portugal/Uruguay (Under 2.5), France/Argentina (Under 2.5) (Parlay) +106
($200) – Argentina (Draw No Bet) +120
($200) – Uruguay/Portugal: (Under 2.5 Goals) + (1st 10min: Draw) + (Both Teams: Over 0.5 Cards, Over 1.5 Cornes) (Combo) +105
($50) – Uruguay/Portugal (Both Teams To Score: No), France/Argentina (Both Teams To Score: No) (Parlay) +169
($25) – France (To Qualify) Portugal (To Qualify) (Parlay) +200
($20) – France, Portugal, Spain, Croatia (All To Qualify To Quarter Finals) +425
($20) – France, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Belgium, Switzerland, England (All To Qualify to Quarter Finals) +1556
($100) – Uruguay Under 1.5 + Over 0.5 2H Corners, Portugal Under 1.5 + Over 0.5 2H Corners (Combo) -110
($50) – Portugal/Draw, France (To Qualify) (Parlay) +133
($100) – France/Draw, Portugal/Draw (Parlay) -122
($100) – Uruguay/Portugal (Correct Score: 0-0) +450
($25) – FRANCE -¼+107,
($25) – FRANCE/ARGENTINA: DRAW +208,
($25) – FRANCE/ARGENTINA: DRAW +205,
($28) – PORTUGAL PK-111,
($25) – URUGUAY/PORTUGAL: DRAW +191,
($25) – URUGUAY/PORTUGAL: DRAW +186
($28) – Argentina/France (1H) u0.5 (-111),
($35) – France (1H PK) -140,
($35) – France (1H PK) -138
($28) – France/Argentina (1H) Draw -111,
($29) – France/Argentina (1H) Draw -113,
($28) – Portugal (1H PK) -111,
($28) – Portugal (1H PK) -112,
($32) – Portugal/Uruguay (1H u0.5) -126,
($31) – Uruguay/Portugal (1H) Draw -121
($30) – Uruguay/Portugal (1H) Draw -120
($25) – France/Argentina: Draw, Portugal/Uruguay: Draw (Parlay) +779,
($50) – France/Argentina (1H Draw), Portugal/Uruguay (1H Draw) (Parlay) +244
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($1) – Belgium, England, Croatia, France, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal (Advance to Qtr Finals) +1790,
($1) – Belgium, England, Croatia, France, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal, Brazil (Advance to Qtr Finals) +2263
($1) – Belgium, England, Croatia, France, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal, Mexico (Advance to Qtr Finals) +7460