Mr. TK’s CFL Week 13 Picks

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ott-vs-bc

Ottawa Redblacks vs. BC Lions

Week 13 begins Friday night with Ottawa on the road taking on BC. BC is last in the West Division while Ottawa is first in the East Division. Ottawa comes into this looking to bounce back after suffering a loss at home to the worst team in the league, Montreal. BC is coming off their bye week looking to pick up a win in their pursuit for a possible playoff chance.

Ottawa has been an up and down team on the road this season in my opinion. They are 3-2 on the road so far this season, suffering losses to Calgary and Toronto in an ugly way. BC has struggled on the road as they have yet to win a road game but they have been pretty good at home with a 3-1 record, including wins over Winnipeg and Edmonton.

Looking at the league numbers, Ottawa brings in the 3rd best away passing offense along with the 6th best rushing offense on the road. On the other side, BC has the 4th best passing defense at home and the 3rd best rushing defense at home. BC on offense has the 5th best passing offense at home and the league’s worst home rushing attack. Ottawa’s passing defense on the road ranks 7th in the league and their rushing defense on the road is 2nd in the league.

What stands out is the BC defense in the 2nd half of their home games, holding their opponents to an average of 1.75 points in the 2nd half against the offenses like Winnipeg (0 pts) and Edmonton (3 pts). If BC wants any shot at the postseason, I think this is a “must win” for them. BC -2 and Under 52.

 

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Calgary vs. Edmonton

There’s no question that Calgary is one of the best teams in the league this year. These two teams met this past weekend with Calgary pulling off a last second field goal for the win. With the loss, Edmonton falls from 2nd to 3rd place in the West behind surging Saskatchewan and will look to rebound this week.

Calgary comes in with a 3-1 road record, losing to Saskatchewan compared to Edmonton’s 4-1 record at home, losing to Hamilton.

Edmonton’s biggest issue has been their play on defense but they have shown flashes of improvement in their play over their past two games. There is no question about the Edmonton offense led by QB Mike Reilly with weapons like RB C.J. Gable, WR Duke Williams, WR Derel Walker just to name a few. When this offense is rolling, it’s tough to stop.

Calgary has proven itself to have one of the best defenses in the league, leading the league in overall scoring defense on the road and passing defense on the road. Their rushing defense on the road ranks 3rd. Edmonton’s overall scoring offense ranks 3rd at home and their passing offense ranks 4th. Edmonton’s home rushing offense is 1st in the league.

Edmonton had a chance to pick up the win late in the game last week but just couldn’t get the job done. I think they will put together a better effort on both sides of the ball. Edmonton +3 and Under 53.5.


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