Champions League: RD of 16 – Barcelona vs Lyon (2nd Leg) Preview + Predictions


Barcelona vs Lyon

A goalless first-leg draw has given Lyon a fighting chance of progression against European heavyweights Barcelona, although they face a home side unbeaten at the Nou Camp since December (W9, D3 – in all competitions) and that hasn’t failed to score here in 13 months.
Formidable at this stage of the Champions League (CL), Barcelona have won their last 11 Round of 16 home matches, and are unbeaten on their own turf in their last 29 CL games (W26, D3) – 21 of those victories were by a two-goal margin or more. Notably, all three of their CL home games this season saw them leading 1-0 at half-time.
That 0-0 draw in France is Lyon’s only clean sheet across their last nine competitive matches (W5, D2, L2), and was their first in the CL this season. They also travel to Spain without history on their side, having lost every UEFA tie they’ve played where they drew a home first leg (L8), although they are unbeaten in their last five CL road trips (W2, D3).
If the visitors’ Ligue 1 (L1) form mirrors itself here, this match could see most of the action late on. That’s because a massive 60.47% of the match goals scored in Lyon’s away league fixtures this season have arrived after the 60th minute.
Players to watch: Barcelona maestro Lionel Messi has netted an incredible 106 CL goals, including six this season along with 28 domestic goals.
Lyon’s top L1 scorer this term is Moussa Dembélé – seven of his 11 goals have come on the road.
Stat attack: Barcelona have conceded exactly one goal in five of their last seven home matches (in all competitions).
Only two of Lyon’s last six competitive away games have featured over 2.5 goals.
Both teams have scored in the first half in two of the previous four H2Hs.


+EV Trends
Lyon on the Road: 8-11, +11.62u,
Lyon – Draw: 14-27, +5.89u,
Lyon: 20-21, +7.43u,
Barcelona (BTTS: Yes @ Home) 14-8, +3.49u,
Barcelona – Draw: 10-33, +6.48u,
Lyon u2.5: 18-23, +5.24u,
Barcelona (1H -0.5 @ HOME) 13-7, +2.2u,
Barcelona u3.5: 27-16, +3.97u,
Fade Lyon +1: 27-12, +3.12u,
Lyon o3 (on the Road) 11-8, +1.12u
Lyon (BTTS: Yes – on the Road) 11-8, +1u
Lyon (BTTS: Yes) 25-16, +1.75u
Barcelona -1.5 @ Home: 14-8, +0.82u
Barcelona (BTTS: Yes) 26-17, +0.88u
Lyon (Fade + Draw): 18-23, +0.89u
Barcelona Fade +1.5: 23-20, +0.64u

Predictions Model


AlMac’s Plays Of The Day:
3.83% – Lyon +1260
1.74% – Barcelona/Lyon (BTTS: Yes) -138
0.8% – Barcelona/Lyon u2.5 (+237)
0.57% – Barcelona/Lyon u3.5 (+100)

2.5% – Lyon: To Qualify (+408)

AlMac’s Best Bets
$25 – Lyon+1103
$100 – Barcelona/Lyon u3.5 (-102)

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