Dave’s Play: 8/9 – Braves vs Nationals (Series Closer)

Dave’s Play: 8/9/18
MLB:
Braves ML (+120) (BWin)


Braves wrap up game four in their series against the Divisional Rivals Nationals. The pitchers are Anibal Sanchez (R) against Gio Gonzalez (L). The Braves have the fourth best slugging percentage against lefties in the MLB and Gio gives up a lot of medium (54 percent) and hard contact (30 percent).

Nationals are top against righties, but Anibal has been a soft contact master (24.8 percent), which would be better than Max Scherzer if he was eligible on Fangraphs.

Both pitchers have an xfip around four so Anibal could be due for regression off his sub three ERA, however his soft contact negates home run expectancy. Both pitchers also have a left on base percentage over 75 so there is no edge in that category either.

One significant difference between the pitchers is their walk rates. Anibal only walks 2.79 batters per 9 innings while Gio walks 4.5.

Lastly, both bullpens are well rested for this and no reliever for either side has thrown two days in a row coming into the game.

The Braves hold a slight edge in the pitching matchup. The bats are about even, maybe a lean towards Nationals. I will take the plus money on the Braves.

For what it is worth: Nationals horrid run support for Gio Gonzalez, three runs last four games, and all have been losses.


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