The quarter finals are set on both sides of the Men’s and Women’s draw and we at SparkSports’ are here to provide you with all the betting trends you need to know to cash tickets and make profit in the few remaining days of the second major of the year.
Forget betting MLB or sweating out the total or side in the NBA Finals, and forget holding out hope for an empty netter to hit your over with 0:24 seconds left on the clock in the Stanley Cup Finals. We are here to help you simplify things and make things easier for you to become a profitable sports bettor. So let’s start with the easy stuff. The French Open.
The French Open uses clay courts, making it unique among the Grand Slam tournaments. Clay courts are considered “slow” because the balls bounce relatively high and lose much of their initial speed when contacting the surface, making it more difficult for a player to deliver an unreturnable shot. Playing on clay often involves the ability to slide into the ball during the stroke, as opposed to running and stopping like on a hard or grass court. Players who excel on clay courts but struggle to replicate the same form on fast courts are known as clay-court specialists. – Wiki: Clay Court
Due to the advanced technique used by ‘clay court specialists’ on the Men’s side there is a disconnect between the upper echelon of players on the ATP tour; and the average tour player in the top 20 – 50 range. Only the most athletic players and the upper level of future hall of famers on the ATP tour have the ability to consistently succeed in this tournament because of the advanced skill set needed to compete on this particular surface. The proof of this can be found in the fact that in the years of the tournament an unseeded player has only won it 4 times. Marcel Bernard in 1946, Mats Wilander in 1982, Gustavo Kuerten in 1997 and Gaston Gaudio in 2004.
In the past 10 years of the ATP French Open a #4 seed or higher has won the tournament 9 out of 10 times. The only time in the past 10 years that a seed lower than #4 won was in 2015 with #8 seed Stan Wawrinka. Beyond that, atleast 4 of the top 8 seeds have made the quarter finals in 9 of the last 10 tournaments. The only exception being in 2009 when only 3 top 8 seeds advanced to the quarters. On top of that, Rafael Nadal has won this tournament 8 out of the last 10 years, and 11 of the last 14 years. So, with those numbers it is more than an understatement to say that this tournament has become a very chalky affair on the Men’s side.
On the Women’s side however, the same can not be said – it is a different beast on the WTA side simply because less female competitors are clay specialists. This gives room for the more versatile and more durable players to shine through on this stage – because of the athleticism needed to succeed on this particular surface, we see alot more volatility and randomness on the Women’s side of the tournament.
In the past 10 years of the tournament, only TWICE did more than 4 of the top 8 seeds get through to the quarter finals. And in 7 of the last 10 years, 3 or less of the top 8 seeds advanced to the quarter finals. Not only that, but in 5 of the last 10 years – the winner of the tournament was outside of the top 5 in seeding, and twice in the past 10 years the winner came from outside of the top 10 (2010 #17 Francesca Schiavone) (2017: Unseeded Jelena Ostapenko)
Overall Tournament Trends
On the WTA side, small underdogs have been reasonably profitable. At this years 2019 French Open underdogs vs favorites between -143 and -101 are: 12-8, +4.49u Last year, they finished 14-10, +4.55u
Last year on the ATP side the favorites ended up 105-20, +12.47u, this year favorites so far are 95-23, +3.34u In 2018, the small underdog vs the favorite between -143 to -101 finished 6-6, +0.59u, this year the same parameter is 5-5, +0.25u so far in the French Open.
ATP: Federer vs Wawrinka
Stan Wawrinka has looked great in this tournament thus far, however he played an extended match vs Tsitsipas on Sunday that lasted over five hours.
Wawrinka has had a fairly decent and profitable 2019, but he is running into the buzz saw that is Federer and catching him at the peak of his form.
Federer so far in 2019 is 29-3, +2.59u. This is impressive as he has an average money line of -500 so far in 2019. In every match he was a favorite besides one match in which he lost to Dominic Thiem.
Stan is going to be gassed and Federer has yet to be really be tested here at the French. Regardless of how impressive Wawrinka has looked, I can’t bet on anything besides Roger here – even at -300 Federer is above his average odds, which points to it being good bet. Take Roger.
ATP: Nishikori vs Nadal
Kai Nishikori has the rare disadvantage of having played yesterday because of a shortened session in his Round of 16 match. Although his opponent Rafa Nadal hasn’t looked overly impressive in this tournament, he has only lost 1 set and let’s not forget – he has won 11 of the last 14 French Open’s Both of these guys have had issues in 2019 Nishikori is 22-8 so far this year and Nadal is 29-5. Niether have been an profitable overall in 2019. In the end though, I have to go with Nadal until he shows me otherwise. The expierience and the legacy on this surface and at the tournament – is too much to ignore. Take Nadal in straight sets. Parlayed with Roger.
WTA: Stephens vs Konta
Sloane Stephens has been up and down so far this season and has been a non-profit player to back in 2019. With an 18-8 record this year, Sloan has already lost to Konta earlier this season and may be running into her ceiling here at the French.
Johanna Konta has some incredibly impressive numbers in 2019. Since the start of the year Konta is 28-8, +9.03u, an ROI of +0.63% per wager, $100 bettors are netting +$25 per bet win or lose. She has lost as an underdog only 4 times this season and has an average line of -167. Konta is the play here. Give me the undervalued rising star over the idle favorite, any day of the week. Win or lose, it’s the right play to make.
WTA: Vondrousova vs Martic
Marketa Vondrousova has come out of nowhere in 2019. Since the start of the year she is 26-6, +8.75u. An ROI of +0.68% per wager, and $100 bettors are netting +$27 per bet, win or lose. Vondrousova is 24-3 as a favorite and 2-3 as an underdog, an average line of -178
Petra Martic has made some major strides in 2019. So far this year she is 16-6, +6.83u. An ROI of +0.78% per wager and $100 bettors are netting +$31 per bet win or lose. She is 11-2 as a favorite and 5-4 as an underdog, with an average line of -125.
Vondrousova may be the more skilled player here, but just simply because of the body of work Martic has put together so far this year, I lean towards her. A slightly more productive campaign in less matches played, she will in theory be more rested as she has played less games this season, but the overall concept here is measure of expectation. I believe Martic has surpassed her level of expectation immensely and the odds makers and the market have yet to show that upgrade reflected in the line. Give me the slightly more rested, more productive player with a higher expected value. Martic for the win.
1.94% – P. Martic +127
1.57% – J. Konta +132
1% – R. Federer, R. Nadal (3-0) (Parlay) -124
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