The quarter finals are half way through on both sides of the Men’s and Women’s draw and we at SparkSports’ are here to provide you with all the betting trends you need to know to cash tickets and make profit in the few remaining days of the second major of the year.
Forget betting MLB or sweating out the total or side in the NBA Finals, and forget holding out hope for an empty netter to hit your over with 0:24 seconds left on the clock in the Stanley Cup Finals. We are here to help you simplify things and make things easier for you to become a profitable sports bettor. So let’s start with the easy stuff. The French Open.
The French Open uses clay courts, making it unique among the Grand Slam tournaments. Clay courts are considered “slow” because the balls bounce relatively high and lose much of their initial speed when contacting the surface, making it more difficult for a player to deliver an unreturnable shot. Playing on clay often involves the ability to slide into the ball during the stroke, as opposed to running and stopping like on a hard or grass court. Players who excel on clay courts but struggle to replicate the same form on fast courts are known as clay-court specialists. – Wiki: Clay Court
Due to the advanced technique used by ‘clay court specialists’ on the Men’s side there is a disconnect between the upper echelon of players on the ATP tour; and the average tour player in the top 20 – 50 range. Only the most athletic players and the upper level of future hall of famers on the ATP tour have the ability to consistently succeed in this tournament because of the advanced skill set needed to compete on this particular surface. The proof of this can be found in the fact that in the years of the tournament an unseeded player has only won it 4 times. Marcel Bernard in 1946, Mats Wilander in 1982, Gustavo Kuerten in 1997 and Gaston Gaudio in 2004.
In the past 10 years of the ATP French Open a #4 seed or higher has won the tournament 9 out of 10 times. The only time in the past 10 years that a seed lower than #4 won was in 2015 with #8 seed Stan Wawrinka. Beyond that, atleast 4 of the top 8 seeds have made the quarter finals in 9 of the last 10 tournaments. The only exception being in 2009 when only 3 top 8 seeds advanced to the quarters. On top of that, Rafael Nadal has won this tournament 8 out of the last 10 years, and 11 of the last 14 years. So, with those numbers it is more than an understatement to say that this tournament has become a very chalky affair on the Men’s side.
On the Women’s side however, the same can not be said – it is a different beast on the WTA side simply because less female competitors are clay specialists. This gives room for the more versatile and more durable players to shine through on this stage – because of the athleticism needed to succeed on this particular surface, we see alot more volatility and randomness on the Women’s side of the tournament.
In the past 10 years of the tournament, only TWICE did more than 4 of the top 8 seeds get through to the quarter finals. And in 7 of the last 10 years, 3 or less of the top 8 seeds advanced to the quarter finals. Not only that, but in 5 of the last 10 years – the winner of the tournament was outside of the top 5 in seeding, and twice in the past 10 years the winner came from outside of the top 10 (2010 #17 Francesca Schiavone) (2017: Unseeded Jelena Ostapenko)
Overall Tournament Trends
On the WTA side, small underdogs have been reasonably profitable. At this years 2019 French Open underdogs vs favorites between -143 and -101 are: 12-9, +3.49u Last year, they finished 14-10, +4.55u
Last year on the ATP side the favorites ended up 105-20, +12.47u, this year favorites so far are 97-23, +3.76u. In 2018, the small underdog vs the favorite between -143 to -101 finished 6-6, +0.59u, this year the same parameter is 5-5, +0.25u so far in the French Open.
WTA: Halep vs Anisimova
Simona Halep since the start of 2019 is 27-8, -0.72u. 6 of her 8 loses came as a favorite.
Amanda Anisimova is 17-8, +1.39u since the start of 2019. 14-5 as a favorite and 3-3 as an underdog. She has had an average line of -181.
WTA: Keys vs Barty
Madison Keys is 14-7, -0.22u so far since the start of 2019. She is 12-5 as a favorite, and 2-2 as an underdog. At an average winning line of -208
Bettors fading Madison Keys have been profitable in 2019, going 7-14, +3.96u, at an average winning line of +156
Ashley Barty is 29-6, +5.04u since the start of 2019. She is 27-2 as a favorite and 2-4 as an underdog, at an average winning line of -263
WTA: Vondrousova vs Konta
Johanna Konta has some incredibly impressive numbers in 2019. Since the start of the year Konta is 29-8, +10.26u, an ROI of +0.69% per wager, $100 bettors are netting +$28 per bet win or lose.
Marketa Vondrousova has come out of nowhere in 2019. Since the start of the year she is 27-6, +9.45u. An ROI of +0.72% per wager, and $100 bettors are netting +$29 per bet, win or lose. Vondrousova is 25-3 as a favorite and 2-3 as an underdog.
ATP: Djokovic vs Zverev
Novak Djokovic is 26-5, -1.5u so far in 2019. He is 26-4 as a favorite and 0-1 as an underdog. 4 of his 5 loses have come to underdogs of +200 or higher, one of them against a +888 underdog. However, bettors who have faded Djoker all year are not profitable, going 5-26, -5.59u
Alex Zverev is 24-11, -5.11u so far in 2019. Going 23-9 as a favorite, and 1-2 as an underdog. 6 of his 9 loses have come to underdogs of +200 or more. Bettors who have faded Zverev all season are profitable going 11-24, +0.49u. At an average winning line of +222
ATP: Thiem vs Khachanov
Dominic Thiem is 20-7, +4.28u so far in 2019. He is 17-6 as a favorite and 3-1 as an underdog. With an average winning line of -178. Bettors who have faded Thiem all year have been profitable, going 7-20, +0.66u – with an average winning line of +295
Karen Khachanov is 14-12, -4.16u so far in 2019. He is 10-10 as a favorite and 4-2 as an underdog. At an average winning line of -178. Bettors who have faded Khachanov all year have been profitable, going 12-14, +10u, at an average winning line of +200.
WTA + ATP
2.4% – A. Barty, D. Thiem (Parlay) -110
1.18% – A. Barty -183
1.18% – M. Vondrousova +112
1% – A. Anisimova +416
1% – N. Djokovic, R. Nadal, D. Thiem (Parlay) -153
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