Long shot payouts and hot streaks: Sunday betting tips for AHL

It’s no secret, the majority of sports bettors do not take the time or even loan a single minute to the thought of betting minor hockey leagues. The european leagues get some action from the die hards during the early months of the season, and during the playoffs – which come a bit earlier than the NHL – but the American Hockey League, the NHL’s minor hockey affiliate league – doesn’t get much handle at all. For this reason, for a few number crunchers, system runners and streak survivors, there is ample amounts of money to be made by betting the AHL on a consistent basis. Reason being, streaks tend to continue for longer amounts of time before the betting juice starts to climb, as we’ve seen in NHL 1st period totals this year, the streaks that some teams have went on – at first went unnoticed, but with a little bit of time it came to a point where the regular everyday 1st period bettor was paying anywhere between -170 and -250 on a 1P o1.5 with teams that have been on historical runs. These same type of red hot streaks exist in the AHL as well, but what’s even better is that the average recreational sports gambler doesn’t even look at this league and because of that – handle is down compared to other leagues – so there is ample opportunity to exploit value before the dastardly bookies up the juice and minimize the profit margin on certain teams, certain patterns and certain hot streaks. Let’s take a look at a few that apply to today’s action. 



The most notable hot streak that comes to mind when discussing the AHL is the tendency for games to go to overtime. It is a pattern that has become not only noticeable, but immensely profitable for those who have been riding the hot hand since the start of the season.



Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins v Bridgeport Sound Tigers

For instance, the Bridgeport Sound Tigers who are in action this afternoon vs the Charlotte Checkers – are coming off a OT game yesterday vs Hartford. They are 19-35 this season betting the OT. A unit count of +26.59. That’s 1.29% per bet at the regular unit size of 2.5%, meaning – at a $25 per bet pace on the draw for Bridgeport – you are netting $12.31 per bet, win or lose when betting the draw in Bridgeport Sound Tigers’ games. Bridgeport’s opponent this afternoon is also trending towards the overtime. The Charlotte Checkers have gone to extra time in 15 out of 54 games. OT bettors are 15-39, +11.63u’s so far this season. That’s +0.60% per bet at 2.5% each and +$5.38 per bet win or lose at $25 each wager.

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The Iowa Wild, who are also coming off a OT game yesterday vs Rockford, are in action today as well – the Wild have gone to OT 18 out of 51 games this season. Betting the OT in all Iowa Wild games, bettors are 18-33, +25.15u. 1.23% per bet at 2.5% and $12.33 per bet win or lose when betting $25 per game on the OT in Iowa Wild games.

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The Milwaukee Admirals, who haven’t played a game since Monday February 11th, are another team who consistently takes games to overtime. Bettors who have picked the draw in every Admirals game this season have gone: 18-34, +21.98u. That’s 1.06% per bet at 2.5%, and $10.57 per bet win or lose at $25 a wager. Milwaukee is in action vs Manitoba this afternoon. The draw price is currently +325.

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The Rockford Ice Hogs, who are also coming off a OT game last night; are in action today vs the San Antonio Rampage. The Ice Hogs have gone to OT 18 out of 53 games this season. Bettors have gone 18-35, +23.33u’s this season betting the draw in every Ice Hogs’ game. That’s +1.1% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$11 per bet profit win or lose at $25 wagered per game.

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The Providence Bruins, another team trending to the Draw this season. Providence has gone to OT 14 out of 52 games. That’s a betting record of 14-38, +8.29u when betting the draw in every Providence game. +0.40% per bet at 2.5%, and +$3.99 per bet win or lose at $25 per wager.


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Aside from the overtime bets in AHL, there is another noticeable pattern that has been consistent throughout the course of the entire season – the long shot underdogs on the 3-way money line. There has been generous value on long shot 3-way underdogs all year long in AHL, and those dogs have been hitting at a very frequent rate this season. When the closing line on a 3-way favourite is between -143 and -101 vs a plus money dog. The 3 way dog has went 109-200, +43.01u’s this season. That’s +0.35% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$3.48 win or lose per bet at $25 per wager. This is the utter definition of a +EV trend. Longevity, consistency and value.

Two live dogs vs favorites between -143 and -101 today are: the Binghamton Devils +214 @ Rochester -118, and the Colorado Eagles +189 @ Stockton -107.



#AlMacsPlaysOfTheDay

All Odds via BetCris + 1XBet

#AHL

4.43% – Bridgeport/Charlotte (Draw) +314

3.08% – Iowa/Chicago (Draw) +318

2.75% – Rockford/SanAntonio (Draw) +298

2.64% – Manitoba/Milwaukee (Draw) +336

1% – Providence/Springfield (Draw) +376

0.85% – Binghamton (Regulation) +219

0.85% – Colorado (Regulation) +189

Follow all my plays on Twitter @AlMacSportsTO


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