Spark Sports’ CFL Power Ratings – Week 8 Update
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Weekly Adjustment: +0.20
Calgary beat the Riders 34-22 on the road this week and covered the -7pt spread handily. The Stamps’ YPP avg regressed -0.15, which is worth nothing more than simply mentioning. Their D progressed +0.19 YAPP and there was no change on their net value. I give Calgary a +0.2pt power rating upgrade because of their D stepping up vs the Riders. Calgary is the number 1 rated team in the CFL and are the 4th highest upgraded team in my power ratings. Calgary takes on BC in Week 8 Saturday night and are -11pt favorites.
Weekly Adjustment: +0.40
The Tiger Cats lost 15-21 to Ottawa at home giving them their 3rd loss in a row. The game started at a slow pace ending in the 1H 5-6 for Ottawa. This was contrary to what the majority of the experts believed would be the case – as everyone was expecting the home crowd to be amped from the big trade news, and that Hamilton would match Ottawa’s high octane offensive pace – none of this happened. Hamilton’s offense regressed slightly by -0.09 YPP, but their defense progressed +0.17 YAPP as they gave up less yards/play than they did in week 6 vs Saskatchewan. Their YPP net value grew by +0.1 and because of that I give them a +0.40 upgrade going into week 8. This is the 3rd highest upgrade of the week. Hamilton hosts Jonny Manziel and the Montreal Alouettes on Friday where they are -6.5 pt favorites.
Weekly Adjustment: +2.85
Edmonton took advantage of a weak scheduling spot as they rolled over the Montreal Alouettes 44-23. Edmonton progressed on offense immensely by adding over a half yard per play to their average (+0.53 YPP), this was the best offensive showing of week 7 in the CFL. Unfortunately they couldn’t quite match their offensive effort on the defensive side of the football – the Eskis allowed 23 Montreal pts – the highest the Alouettes have scored all season. This was a -0.04 YAPP regression to Edmonton’s average. However, because of their offensive fire power – their YPP net value grew by +0.6, because of that I am giving the Edmonton Eskimos a +2.85 power rating upgrade. This is the highest upgrade of the week. Edmonton hosts Saskatchewan on Thursday night and are -9 pt favorites.
Weekly Adjustment: -0.1
The Bluebombers crushed the Argos 44-14 infront of their home crowd in Winnipeg week 7. Winnipeg gained 366 total yards but were out gained by Toronto giving up 393 yards. The Bombers offense added +0.06 to their YPP avg, but they regressed on their defensive average by -0.08 YAPP. There was no adjustment to their net value – but because they were out gained by a rather pedestrian Argonauts offense, I have to downgrade the Bombers power rating -0.1. This is the smallest downgrade of the week. Winnipeg will have a bit of time to regroup as they are on a bye week in week 8.
BC Lions: -2.05
Weekly Adjustment: off Bye.
The BC Lions are coming off a bye week this week, they are the 5th ranked team in the CFL by our power rating even though they have a sub par YPP net value. That just goes to show the level of in-consistency in the CFL this year. BC was only a few minutes away from beating Ottawa in week 6, they led the game 25-22 in the final minutes, but Ottawa pulled ahead with a final minute TD. BC continues on the road this week; where they travel to Calgary to play the Stamps on Saturday night where they are a +11pt underdog.
Weekly Adjustment: -0.6
The Redblacks were able to squeak out a win on the road vs the Hamilton TigerCats in week 7. Ottawa won by 6pts 21-15, but were less than impressive and the win was more of a mis-execution by Hamilton; more specifically Ti-Cats kicker Lirim Hajrullahu who missed two field goals in the 1st half of Saturday’s game. Even though Ottawa won the game, they were out gained in yards by Hamilton 338-383. Ottawa had regression on both sides of the football, they gave up -0.04 in their YPP avg and -0.08 in their YAPP avg. This correlates to a -0.1 net value loss and because of that I am giving a -0.6 downgrade to their power rating. The Redblacks hope to gain more momentum in week 8 as they take on the lowly Argonauts at BMO field in Toronto on Thursday. Edmonton are -4.5 pt favorites.
Weekly Adjustment: -1.2
The Riders lost to Calgary at home in week 7 (22-34) and were absolutely torched in the early stages of that game giving up 24pts in the 1Q. Thankfully for the Riders they were able to muster back a small bit of composure and scored 13 unanswered in the 2Q – but were still outscored 9-10 in the 2H. Somehow the Riders managed to out gain the Stamps by +5 yards (247-242). Saskatchewan’s offense regressed the most out of every team in week 7 losing -0.31 yards to their YPP avg. However, surprisingly the Riders defense progressed and added +0.07 yards to their YAPP avg. Regardless of that, there is still an overall regression of -0.2 to their YPP net value, because of this I am giving the Riders the 2nd largest downgrade of the week -1.2 power rating pts. The Riders head to Edmonton for their week 8 match up on Thursday. They are +9pt underdogs.
Weekly Adjustment: -1.45
The Alouettes scored the most points of their entire season vs Edmonton in week 7, but that didn’t matter as Edmonton almost doubled those points. The Al’s lost 44-23 to the Eskis at home and were out gained 349-513 in yardage. Montreal had some slight progress on the offensive side of the football adding +0.14 yards to their YPP avg, however they lost -0.43 yards to their YAPP avg – the largest defensive regression of week 7. Not only that – but their net value goes down -0.3 which is the largest NET regression of the week. To make matters worse, I am downgrading the Al’s -1.45 in power ranking points, the largest downgrade of the week. Montreal heads to Hamilton in week 8 where they are +6.5 pt underdogs.
Weekly Adjustment: +1.25
Now this one is a head scratcher – The Argos were shellacked on the road vs Winnipeg in week 7, but some how managed to out gain Bombers 393-366. The Argos were outscored in every QTR of the football game and gave up the ball countless times to Winnipeg throughout the game. However, besides the handful of turn overs – Toronto’s offense progressed greatly – adding +0.23 yards to their YPP avg, this is the 2nd highest offensive progression of the week. (Head scratches) Not only that – but even with the 5 turn overs given up; statistically the Argos bettered themselves on defense adding a small +0.02 yards to their defensive YAPP avg. With this, the Argos take a +0.2 net value upgrade and because of that I am adjusting the Argos power rating by +1.25 pts. Just to be clear – this is the worst overall rated team in the league, with the 2nd highest upgrade of the week. This team is an enigma. The Argos host the Ottawa Redblacks on Thursday at BMO field and are +4.5 underdogs.
The Nuts And Bolts.