Spark Sports: UCL Round of 16: (Day 8) (Previews and Predictions)


Spark Sports’ Champions League iPR 

Power Ratings
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Barcelona vs Lyon

A goalless first-leg draw has given Lyon a fighting chance of progression against European heavyweights Barcelona, although they face a home side unbeaten at the Nou Camp since December (W9, D3 – in all competitions) and that hasn’t failed to score here in 13 months.
Formidable at this stage of the Champions League (CL), Barcelona have won their last 11 Round of 16 home matches, and are unbeaten on their own turf in their last 29 CL games (W26, D3) – 21 of those victories were by a two-goal margin or more. Notably, all three of their CL home games this season saw them leading 1-0 at half-time.
That 0-0 draw in France is Lyon’s only clean sheet across their last nine competitive matches (W5, D2, L2), and was their first in the CL this season. They also travel to Spain without history on their side, having lost every UEFA tie they’ve played where they drew a home first leg (L8), although they are unbeaten in their last five CL road trips (W2, D3).
If the visitors’ Ligue 1 (L1) form mirrors itself here, this match could see most of the action late on. That’s because a massive 60.47% of the match goals scored in Lyon’s away league fixtures this season have arrived after the 60th minute.
Players to watch: Barcelona maestro Lionel Messi has netted an incredible 106 CL goals, including six this season along with 28 domestic goals.
Lyon’s top L1 scorer this term is Moussa Dembélé – seven of his 11 goals have come on the road.
Stat attack: Barcelona have conceded exactly one goal in five of their last seven home matches (in all competitions).
Only two of Lyon’s last six competitive away games have featured over 2.5 goals.
Both teams have scored in the first half in two of the previous four H2Hs.


+EV Trends
Lyon on the Road: 8-11, +11.62u,
Lyon – Draw: 14-27, +5.89u,
Lyon: 20-21, +7.43u,
Barcelona (BTTS: Yes @ Home) 14-8, +3.49u,
Barcelona – Draw: 10-33, +6.48u,
Lyon u2.5: 18-23, +5.24u,
Barcelona (1H -0.5 @ HOME) 13-7, +2.2u,
Barcelona u3.5: 27-16, +3.97u,
Fade Lyon +1: 27-12, +3.12u,
Lyon o3 (on the Road) 11-8, +1.12u
Lyon (BTTS: Yes – on the Road) 11-8, +1u
Lyon (BTTS: Yes) 25-16, +1.75u
Barcelona -1.5 @ Home: 14-8, +0.82u
Barcelona (BTTS: Yes) 26-17, +0.88u
Lyon (Fade + Draw): 18-23, +0.89u
Barcelona Fade +1.5: 23-20, +0.64u

Predictions Model


AlMac’s Plays Of The Day:
3.83% – Lyon +1260
1.74% – Barcelona/Lyon (BTTS: Yes) -138
0.8% – Barcelona/Lyon u2.5 (+237)
0.57% – Barcelona/Lyon u3.5 (+100)

2.5% – Lyon: To Qualify (+408)

AlMac’s Best Bets
$25 – Lyon+1103
$100 – Barcelona/Lyon u3.5 (-102)

Follow on Twitter @AlMacSportsTO

Bayern Munich vs Liverpool



These two titans have both been European champions five times, and with nothing to separate them after the first leg (0-0), both fancy their chances of a place in the Champions League (CL) quarter-finals. Bayern may have home advantage, but Liverpool know an away goal could be enough to progress.
Bayern are undefeated in the CL this season (W4, D3), and in all competitions are undefeated at home in their last ten matches (W8, D2) – which includes five clean sheets, an average of 2.9 goals scored, and 0.7 goals conceded per game.
Liverpool have lost all three of their CL away matches this season, with just one goal scored and five conceded. Overall however, they are in fine form and are undefeated in their last ten competitive matches (W5, D5) – which includes six clean sheets, 19 scored and seven conceded.
Perhaps surprisingly, the first leg was the first competitive H2H meeting since 2001 when Liverpool beat Bayern 3-2 to lift the UEFA Super Cup. From his time at Dortmund, Jurgen Klopp (LIV) knows Bayern well, although his record against them shows he has often struggled to win (W9, D5, L16).
Players to watchManuel Neuer (BAY) will make his 100th CL appearance, and his shot stopping (19 saves in seven CL games) will be key to blunting the visitors’ attack.
Mo Salah (LIV) has three CL goals this season and is the Red’s main playmaker (17 goals and seven assists in the Premier League).
Stat attack: Bayern have kept two clean sheets in their last two home games (6-0, 1-0), whilst Liverpool have kept two clean sheets in their last two away games (0-0, 0-0).
The first leg saw just two yellow cards (one each), from a total of 23 fouls.
Bayern have scored in their last ten competitive home matches – with six of them (60%) seeing over 2.5 goals.


+EV Trends

Fading Bayern Munich +1 @ Home: 8-8, +14.35u
Bayern Munich Draws: 9-29, +20.15u,
Bayern Munich u3.5 @ Home: 9-7, +6.87u
Fading Liverpool on the Road: 5-14, +6.63u
Liverpool u2.5 on the Road: 11-8, +5.56u
Bayern Munich u3.5: 21-17, +8.63u
Fade Liverpool + Draw (on the Road): 10-9, +4.15u
Fade Liverpool +1 (on the Road): 14-5, +2.31u
Fade Bayern Munich + Draw: 12-26, +3.86u
Liverpool u2.5: 18-21, +3.67u
Liverpool Draw (on the Road): 5-14, +1.68u
Liverpool BTTS No: 22-17, +2.55u
Liverpool BTTS No (on the Road): 10-19, +0.4u

Predictions Model


AlMac’s Plays Of The Day:
3.33% – BayernMunich/Liverpool (Draw) +255
2.5% – Liverpool +0.5 (-131)
2.43% – BayernMunich/Liverpool u2.5 (-103)
0.56% – BayernMunich/Liverpool BTTS:No (+108)

2.5% – Liverpool: To Qualify (-103)

AlMac’s Best Bets
$50 – BayernMunich/Liverpool (Draw) +260
$50 – Liverpool +0.25 (+108)
$50 – BayernMunich/Liverpool u2.5 (+105)

Follow on Twitter @AlMacSportsTO

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