SU-Trends are misleading and dangerous.

SU-Trends are misleading. When team A is 25-6 in their last 31 games. A bunch of those games; team A is like a -200 to -250 fav. So those trends aren’t profitable – get a unit count on SU trends. Otherwise, put the work in and get your edges elsewhere.

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The Detroit Tigers are a perfect example.

  • Tigers are 24-56 in their last 80 overall.

So, most squares will look at this and think – “well if you Fade the Tigers you are getting a 70% winning rate.”

So they’ll take the Indians -210 vs the Tigers. They will lay 2u’s and lose. Or they will take Indians -1.5 -120 and play the single unit – and lose – and wonder why… Well the reason is because tailing those trends are not +EV plays.

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The proper way to tail a SU-Trend is by waiting for their to be value on that trend. Not on the RL – but on the ML. Taking a team on the RL or doubling up on a big fav based on these trends – you will lose more times than not.

If you think about it…

56-24 @ an avg line of -200 equals out to be 56 * 0.5 = 28 now minus the 24 loses.

So that gives you +4u’s over pretty much half of an MLB season.

That is very close -EV.

Especially because most times – people are going to lay 2u’s to win the 1u @ -200,

So now that equals.

(56 * 1 = 56) – (24*2 = 48) = +8u’s

That is being generous @ -200 lines.

If you reduce that by even a slight margin, and add in the few times you are playing these games at 2u’s @ -205, -210, -215, etc.

You will end up -EV, and -units.

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So please. When we’re all on twitter, when we’re on the youtube videos and on the forums. Can we please stop pretending to be sharp because we are copy and pasting trend lines from the various sites that provide them – because in reality. Those trends and those betting methodologies are very square and will end up with your bankroll being in the negative. I will promise you that.


Let me know what your thoughts are on this on twitter.
@AlMacSportsTO

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