UCL Round of 16: Day 4 (Atletico vs Juventus) (Previews + Predictions)

Spanish and Italian giants collide in their first meeting since 2014. Atletico vs Juventus in the 1st leg of their Round of 16 Champions League tie. Atletico have scored first in six of their last eight matches across all competitions, and won their last four UCL home matches by a two goal margin – while winning atleast one half to nil in each – as such, the hosts will be hoping to continue their quick starting ways at home vs Juventus. If they get it, then Atletico’s CL home history against the highest seeded teams suggests to keep an eye on Antoine Greizzman in the first half, who in a curious manner – has scored a goal in the 1H by penalty in their last 3 home games against ‘Pot 1’ opponents in UCL action.

Juventus have an impressive record in first-leg away matches. Juve have advanced in 3 of their last 4 matches of that category. All three of those matches saw Juventus winning the away leg to nil and by multi-goal margins. Before their surprise loss to Young Boys earlier this season, Juventus were on a five-match streak of away wins in UCL matches, with two of those last wins coming with clean sheets and with first half wins.

Alvaro Morata will be only the seventh man to suit up for both Madrid clubs in UEFA competitions. He assisted Griezzman in his last Atletico appearance and will be one to watch in this match indeed.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s first campaign in UCL for Juventus has been a frustrating one, but he comes into this tie with four straight goal scoring outings in Serie A matches.

These sides have only met in two previous matches, in the 2014/2015 group stage. Atletico won the home stage of that match 1-0.

The Positive Approach

The positive approach to this one is to be going against the grain and taking Juventus early. Juventus have won 3 out of their 6 group stage UCL matches so far this season. Juventus 1H -0.5 backers have gone 3-3, +1.34u’s, that’s +0.56% ROI per bet at 2.5% each, and +$5.58 win or lose for each $25 wager. So taking a sniff at the 1H Juventus win may be the smartest play on the card for this one. Besides that, both of these teams trend towards the ‘BTTS: No’ market and in a big way. Both teams have failed to score in 4 out of Juve’s 6 UCL matches this season. BTTS No backers in that category have gone 4-2, +1.19u. An ROI of +0.50% per bet @ 2.5% each and +$4.96 win or lose at $25 each wager. On top of that, Juventus on the road has also been a profitable scenario to back the ‘BTTS: No’ market. Both teams have failed to score in 10 of Juventus’ 16 road matches this season. No backers have went 10-6, +1.81u. An ROI of +0.28% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$2.83 win or lose at $25 per wager. As well, overall Juventus on the BTTS: No market has also been slightly profitable. Both teams have failed to score in 21 of Juventus’ 33 matches so far this year. The No backers have gone 21-12, +2.96u, an ROI of +0.22% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$2.24 win or lose at $25 per wager. To make matters even more intriguing. Atletico has a team trend in this favor as well. Both teams have failed to score in 11 of Atletico’s 17 home matches this year. The No backers have gone 11-6, +0.2u’s a minimal margin of profit, but still profit none the less. ‘BTTS: No’ is the way to go on this one, regardless of the heavy price. Bet size accordingly.


Out of the two teams overall, the Italian giants have been more profitable throughout the campaign. Juventus backers have gone 27-6, +6.33u on the season. An ROI of +0.48% per bet at 2.5% each and +$4.80 win or lose at $25 per wager. To sweeten the deal even further, Juventus has a profitable trend to the -1.5 line on the road and overall. Juventus -1.5 backers in Juve road games this year have gone 7-9, +2.39u profit, an ROI of +0.37% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$3.73 win or lose at $25 per wager. As well overall for the season; Juventus -1.5 backers have gone 15-18, +0.53u, again – a small margin of profit, but still profit none the less. The right investment in this match is to back Juventus, on the ML and the -1.5 line.

For parlay purposes. The most profitable trend between these two teams that is outside the value range of betting solo, is the total. Atletico trends to the under 2.5 both in their overall season and at home. Juventus also trends to the under 3 on the road. Backers of the Under 2.5 in all Atletico matches this season have gone 23-12, +5.82u, an ROI of +0.42% per bet at 2.5% each, and +$4.16 win or lose at $25 per wager. The same wager at home has been profitable where Under 2.5 backers have gone 10-7, +1.79u, an ROI of +0.26% per bet at 2.5% each, +$2.63 win or lose at $25 per wager. And finally Juventus u3 backers on the road this season have gone 14-2 (win or push), +1.44u. An ROI of +0.23% per bet at 2.5% each and +$2.25 win or lose at $25 per wager. The under 2.5 line is a perfect addition to a Champions League parlay.


Head to Head Model

Screen shot 2019-02-20 at 1.52.07 PM.pngJuventus the road side in this one comes into this match with a slight edge offensively scoring over 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches. Atletico score just under 2 goals per game in their last 5. However both teams are dead locked defensively giving up 1.4 goals per game in their last 5. Juventus has the slight edge in average goal differential in recent matches. Juventus with a +0.80 goal differential, Atletico +0.40. Juventus edges Atletico at winning percentage, the Turin squad have won 3 of their last 5 where Atletico has only won 2 out of their last 5.

As for the Euro Club Index, they see Juventus has the better side giving them a rating of +4.06 over Atletico who is currently given a +3.79 rating. Overall Juventus bettors Atletico in almost all facets of the iPR model except for in defensive showing over their last 5 matches. The iPR model expects Juventus to edge Atletico by atleast a goal. A Juventus win of 2.23 – 1.17 is shown. The over 2 and BTTS: Yes are also generated picks via the iPR head to head model.


#AlMacsPlaysOfTheDay

All Odds via BetCris + 1XBet

#ChampionsLeague

1.4% – Juventus (1H) +287

2.6% – Atletico/Juventus (BTTS: No) -147

1.2% – Juventus +192

1.03% – Juventus -1.5 (+585)

2.26% – Atletico/Juventus u2.5, Man. City (Parlay) -110

1% – Man City -1.5 (-117)

1% – Schalke/ManCity (BTTS: No) -144

1% – Schalke/Man City o3 (+107)


almacbb

#AlMacsBestBets

#ChampionsLeague

$50 – Juventus +0 (-103)

$25 – Atletico/Juventus u1.75 (+102)

$50 – Atletico/Juventus (Draw) +195

$50 – Juventus (1H) +0 (-104)

$25 – Atletico/Juventus (1H) u0.75 (-122)

$50 – Atletico/Juventus (1H) Draw (-111)

$50 – Schalke/ManCity o2.75 (-120)

$50 – Man. City -1.5 (-103)

$50 – Man. City (1H) -129

Follow all AlMac’s picks on Twitter @AlMacSportsTO


 

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