UFC Fight Island 3: Best Bets

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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
237-175, +9.91u
(Verified via OddsPortal)

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Men’s Bantamweight

Nathaniel Wood (-468) vs. John Castaneda (+338)

The big trend here that sticks out at Bantamweight, not as far as profits but as far as probability goes, the favorite has won at a 64% rate in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division going back to January of 2019, going 58-30-2. But at 64%, the buy price on the favorite is at about -180, while Nathaniel Wood is currently sitting far north of that at -468. Based on the trend, the value is on the dog at +338.
 

As far as the total goes, the ‘Over’ in the UFC men’s bantamweight division is hitting at a 61% rate at 55-35 over the last year and a half, and again, not exactly profitable, but probable at 61%, and based on implied probability, if the the ‘Over’ prop is at -157 or better, it’s worth betting. The current total on this fight is sitting at ‘2.5 Rounds’ with the ‘Over’ at +103. Alot of value on that number, based on these trends.

Welterweight

Ramazan Emeev (-417) vs Niklas Stolze (+331)

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019 has been immensely profitable, going 70-34 for +17.91u. At a 67% rate, the ‘Over’ in the Welterweight division has value, based on implied probability, at -207 or better. So with that in mind, looking at the totals at Welterweight. So, Emeev/Stolze’s Over 2.5 is -279, so the value in that one is actually on the Under, at 32.6%, you’re getting value at anything better than +207, and this Under 2.5 is currently sitting at +209, there is definitely some value fading the trend in that fight. 

Meanwhile, as far as a winner, the Underdog has been very lucrative over the last year and a half, going 45-59 for +17.52 units profit. Bettors who have wagered $100 on the underdog in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019, have profited +$1752, that’s +$17 per fight, win or lose. At 43%, the buy price on the dog is +131 or better, which every Welterweight dog on this card is. So, based on these trends, there is a decent amount of value on the underdog in all four of these four fights at 170. 


Women’s Bantamweight

Bethe Correia (+129) vs Pannie Kianzad (-159)

The ‘Over’ in this division has hit at a 79% rate, going 23-6 for +4.7u profit over the last year and a half. Based on an implied probability, an ‘Over’ in this division is a +EV bet at -380 or better, however, the ‘Over 2.5’ rounds prop is currently sitting at -463, far outside of the value price range. If you’re coming in on the Under for this fight, the value just isn’t there. At 20%, implied probability says there is value in this division on the ‘Under 2.5’ rouns at +383, and the Under is currently sitting at +330. No value on either side of the total in this one, in my opinion.

The favorite in the Women’s Bantamweight division has gone 21-8 for +1.1u profit over the last year and a half. At 72%, implied probability has value on the Favorite in women’s bantamweight at -262 or better, and Kianzad is currently listed at an average price of -159. There is some good value on Kianzad at that price, however, in order to make the bet far more enticing, take Kianzad by decision at +110.



Heavyweight

Raphael Pessoa (+217) vs Tanner Boser (-278)

The ‘Over’ has hit at a 60% at heavyweight since the start of 2020, going 12-8 for +2.8 units profit. At 60%, the buy price on the ‘Over’ in this division is -150 or better. Currently, the ‘Over 2.5’ in Pessoa/Boser is outside of the value range at -172. However, since 2019, the Over has gone 35-28 for a 55.5% win rate, on the other side of that trend at 44.4%, there is value on the Under at +125 or better, and currently, the ‘Under 2.5’ rounds prop is currently sitting at +134 in this fight. So there is forsure value there. 

Meanwhile, the Underdog at Heavyweight is just barely in profit, currently sitting at 25-36-2 for +0.1 units profit, over the last year and a half. At 39%, the dog has value in this division at +152 or better, while all three heavyweight dogs on this card are currently at least +170 or better. While it’s risky business to back a 39% trend that is barely above profit, when you’re getting almost 2-1 odds on all three underdogs, you can’t exactly go wrong. So, based on the trends, there is a bit of value on the underdogs at heavyweight in this one.

Men’s Featherweight
Movsar Evloev (-199) vs Mike Grundy (+158)

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has been a profitable and probable trend, hitting at a 65% rate since the start of 2019 (56-29) for +6.86 units profit. Based on implied probability, the ‘Over’ in the featherweight division is a solid bet to make at anything better than -190. The only problem, the ‘Over’ in this fight is currently listed at -240. If you were going to back the other side of this trend, the buy price at 31% is +193, and the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop is only at +193. Based on implied probability, there is value on the Under here. 

As for a winner, the favorite in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has been a probable outcome over the last year and a half, going 52-33-1 for a win rate of 60%. Based on this trend, the buy price on favorite at featherweight is at about -150, while Evloev is currently sitting far beyond that price range at about -204. If you’re fading this 60% trend, the buy price on the Underdog would be at +161, and Mike Grundy is currently sitting at +158.

Heavyweight

Tom Aspinall (-220) vs Jake Collier (+206)

Collier is 3-3 in his UFC career, with 1 stoppage win and 2 by decision. He’s lost twice by stoppage and once by decision. 3 of 6 fights have gone the distance, while the Over/Under prop is a perfect 3-3 in his 6 UFC bouts as well. Collier hasn’t fought since November of 2017, so a super long lay off for him.

As for Tom Aspinall, he’s 2-0 since making his Cage Warriors debut last year, but beyond that, this is his first UFC appearance, and there’s no betting data on this, he’s never had a fight that’s had professional odds posted, until now. So, we’ll see how Aspinall against measure of expectation as a -220 favorite. I like Collier here at +200 or better, and I think this fight goes deep, and at +225 for ‘Fight Goes The Distance’, I think that’s a good solid play to make as well.


Welterweight

Nicolas Dalby (-240) vs Jesse Ronson (+225)

Nicolas Dalby is 35yrs old, he has a 18-3-1 record as a pro, he’s 5’11 with a 74.5 inch reach. His opponent Jesse Ronson is 34yrs old, 21-10 as a professional, he’s 5’10 with a 70.5 inch reach. So Dalby is the older fighter, little bit more UFC experience, and he has a 3 inch reach advantage here.

Nicolas Dalby is 8-3-2 since 2013, in his 5 career UFC fights, he’s 2-2-1, picking up two wins by decisions, two losses by decision, and a Draw to Darren Till actually. So all 5 of his UFC bouts went the distance and the went Over the betting total. 

As for Jesse Ronson, he actually debuted in the UFC back in 2013, but strung three losses together in a row and got cut from the promotion. So he’s getting an opportunity to the UFC here, but overall, not a whole lot of betting data on this guy.

Very similar situation for Nicolas Dalby, he too took a few losses in a row in the UFC, went to Cage Warriors for a few bouts, came back to the UFC and picked up a decision win over Cowboy Olivera, so he’s looking to build off that, so two fighters in similar situations here, trying to get back to being mainstays for the UFC. 

I think it’s most likely that this one goes the distance. Two guys who are well rounded, but not exactly specialized in any one area. The bookies clearly feel this way as well, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop sitting at -170. This is just pretty one-sided when it comes to overall betting data for these guys, with most of the data being on Dalby. But look, we go with the division trends in situations like this, and the Underdog cashes heavy in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division, over the last year and a half, 45-59 for +17.52 units profit. A 43% win rate and you’re getting Jesse Ronson at +200. I think you gotta take a shot on the underdog here. You know, in all likelihood, Dalby picks up the decision, but you’re getting into a lot of variances by taking that pick, you gotta survive 15 minutes of the fight, and you gotta hope Dalby did enough to ensure the victory. I remember his last fight, against Cowboy Olivera, was in Copenhagen actually, so, he picked up the decision victory in that fight, but he had a whole arena behind him, 20 thousand Danish fans supporting him, it will be an empty arena this time… And look, Dalby hasn’t fought since that bout back in September of 2019, while Jesse Ronson took on Tory Lamson at a regional event just back in February, so he’s fresh, he looked good in that fight too, picking up a submission victory. I think Ronson can get it done against Dalby here. I’ll take a small shot at Jesse Ronson at +200. 


Lightweight

Francisco Trinaldo (-127) vs. Jay Herbert (+130)

So Trinaldo comes in at 41yrs old, he will be 42 in a month, he’s 25-7 as a pro-fighter, he’s 5’9 with a 70 inch reach. As for Herbert, he’s 32 years old, 6’1, and his reach isn’t listed, but it looks like he’s significantly longer than Trinaldo. So Herbert is the younger fighter at 32, but he’s far less experienced taking on this seasoned UFC veteran. 

For Trinaldo, since his UFC debut he’s 15-6, and then in his last 18 fights going back to 2014, Trinaldo’s 13-5, with 4 wins coming by way of stoppage, and a whopping 9 wins coming by way of decision. 12 of Trinaldo’s last 18 UFC bouts have gone the distance, and the Over has gone 13-5 in Trinaldo’s fights since 2014. 

As for Jay Herbert, he’s 5-0 since his Cage Warriors debut in 2018, with 4 of those 5 coming by way of stoppage. Beyond that, there’s not a whole lot of betting history in regards to Herbert.

It’s a very interesting match up, you got a guy in Trinaldo who’s a decision machine, taking on Jay Herbet in his UFC debut, who’s got 4 stoppage victories in a row. Big time age difference here, but the experience advantage is definitely with Trinaldo, who’s already fought in one of these empty arena shows, the first one back at UFC Brasilia. So, while I do think there’s a decent chance that Herbert could get the knockout and prove me completely wrong here, but I think the value is on Trinaldo by Decision. I know Trinaldo is getting up there in age, but there’s nothing that really says that Herbert has faced anyone, or has a win over anyone that’s really convincing me that he’s gonna go out and finish an experienced UFC veteran. I like Trinaldo by Decision at +190. 

As for the total, you know, there’s not really any value betting the Over or the fight to go the distance, and then coming in the other way on the Under. I think i’m just gonna take Trinaldo by decision for 1 unit, and leave it at that with this fight. 


Welterweight

Khamzat Chimaev (-1150) vs Reese McKee (+900)

Alright so. The Swedish Hamzat Chimaev is returning to the octagon on just 10 days notice, as he steps in to face the Englishman Rhys McKee who is making his UFC debut. 

Chimaev is 7-0 as a professional, 26yrs old, 6’2 with a 75inch reach. His opponent Reese McKee is 10-2-1 as a pro, 24yrs old, 6’1 and his reach is not listed. So it looks like Shimaev has a little bit of a size advantage on McKee here. 

So McKee is on a 3 fight winning streak, with all 3 wins coming in the Cage Warriors promotion. While SHimaev is undefeated at 7-0, but really hasn’t faced any serious elite caliber MMA talent just yet, so it’s very hard to judge this guy on his record. 

Both of these guys don’t really have any betting history behind them. I think you gotta lean on the Division Trends in a fight like this with two relatively unknowns. 

So you look at the Welterweight division, the Over since the start of 2019 has hit at a 67% rate, going 70-34 for +17.91 units profit. Also, the Underdog, has been immensely profitable at 43%, going 45-59 for +17.52 units profit. So, needless to say, the value is on both the Over and the Underdog in this match up. The betting market thinks that Shimaev is going to starch McKee and I think there’s a decent amount of value on the betting the Over 1.5 rounds at +170. If McKee can last 7.5 minutes is the question, but I like those odds. Give me the dog and the Over 1.5 rounds prop in this one.

Welterweight

Alex ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira (-167) vs Peter Sobotta (+176)

So ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira has a professional record of 21-8-1, he’s 32 years old, 5’11 with a 76.5 inch reach. Meanwhile, Peter Sobotta is 33 years old, 6ft tall with a 75 inch reach. So a really weird match-up here. Cowboy is the younger fighter, but gives up an inch on height, but has an inch and a half advantage when it comes to reach. Not to mention, it’s one of those fights where the younger fighter actually has more experience in the UFC, as Oliveira has 17 UFC fights, whereas Sobotta just has 9. 

So ‘Cowboy’ Oliveira is 10-6-1 since debuting in the UFC in 2015, which is crazy that he’s had 17 fights in just 5 years. I had to go back and count to make sure that was correct, but yea, 10-6-1. 7 of his 10 wins have come by stoppage, the other 3 by decisions. He’s been stopped 4 times and has dropped two fights by decision. 12 of his 17 fights have ended by way of stoppage, however, the over in his 17 UFC fights is 10-7. So some late finishes in Oliveira’s fights forsure. 

As for Sobotta, he’s 4-5 in his career in the UFC. It’s interesting…

Sobotta debuted in the UFC in 2009, went 0-3 to start, and left the promotion in 2011, returning in 2014. So, since his 2014 return, he’s 4-2, winning two bouts by stoppage and two by decisions, as well as dropping two fights by stoppage. So he’s never lost by decision in his UFC career, and it looks like the matchmakers are setting up a fight with a nice finish here.

I think Cowboy gets it done here, between these two guys, 16 of 23 combined career UFC fights have ended by stoppage. Cowboy has 7 stoppage wins in his 17 fight career in the UFC, I think someone gets finished here and I think Oliveira is the one to get the job done. At +150 ‘Inside the Distance’ I am all over that for a full 2 unit play. 

As for the total, as mentioned, 16 of 23 fights between these two guys have ended by way of stoppage. The ‘Fight Doesn’t Go Distance’ prop is sitting at -145, and it’s a little bit steep but I still like it quite a bit. Then you got the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop at +103, so both of those I think are worth getting involved in, as well as Cowboy within the distance.




Light Heavyweight

‘the Bear Jew’ Paul Craig (-111) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+113)

Paul Craig is 12-4-1 as a pro, he’s 32yrs old at 6’3 with a 76 inch reach. While Antigulov is 33yrs old, 20-6 as a pro, he’s 5’11 with a 70.5 inch reach. So Craig is the younger fighter, and he has a significant height and reach advantage here, as well as overall experience, yea – Antigulov has 26 fights to Craig’s 17, but Craig has been in more UFC fights, even though they both debuted in 2016.

Antigulov debuted in the UFC in 2016, he’s 2-2 since then with two wins inside the distance, along with two losses by stoppage, so none of his UFC fights have gone the distance, and he’s 4-0 to the Under since the start of his UFC career. 

As for Paul Craig, he’s 4-4-1, as I said he also came into the UFC in 2016, but has 5 more fights than Antigulov. All 4 of his Craig’s have come by stoppage, as have his 4 losses, his one draw was his last fight against Shogun Hua, which was definitely controversial, to me it looked like Craig won that fight 29-28 easily. Either way. 8 of his 9 UFC fights have ended by stoppage one way or another, however the total is 5-4 to the Under, so just because his fights end inside the distance, it doesn’t necessarily mean they go Under the total. 

Paul Craig is the slight -111 favorite based on the global average line, with Antigulov at +113, so it’s a coin flip fight, which has favored the chalk in the last year and a half, with favorite at -150 or better going 10-7 since the start of 2019. But regardless of that, I think this is a home run spot for Paul Craig. He’s coming off a rough split-draw decision to Shogun Hua last year, which as I said, it looked to me like he clearly won that fight, I think he’s gonna be extra motivated. You look at Antigulov, his last fight against Mikal Olekzeychek, he just came out swinging, he made the same mistake over and over again and just kept getting caught, and that fight ended pretty quickly with Olekzeychek knocking him out. So, in most of his fights, it looks like he’s gonna be going for that big knock outshot, and I just think Paul Craig is too calculated to get caught with these big telegraphed punches that Antigulov loves to throw. You know I like Craig ‘Inside the Distance’ at +138, but look, I don’t want to get greedy, and i’m willing to wager a little bit more on Paul Craig straight up, as opposed to betting on him Inside the Distance. So i’m gonna bet Paul Craig here pretty big, 4.6% bankroll, so just under 2 units. I am really confident in this one. If you feel up to it, I would suggest inside the distance as well, but for me, i’m just gonna lay a nice hefty wager on Paul Craig here. 

As for the total, look, between these two guys they’ve had 13 career UFC fights, and only 1 of those 13 have gone to decision. Antigulov is 4-0 to the Under, Paul Craig is 5-4 to the Under. They’ve adjusted this one to 1.5 rounds, so the secret is out here, but just to roll the dice a little bit here, i’m gonna take it, I like the Under 1.5 in this one quite a bit. So i’m gonna bet little over a unit on the Under 1.5 rounds prop in this one.

Women’s Strawweight

Carla Esparza (+158) vs. Marina Rodriguez (-170)

Esparza is 32yrs old, 5’1 with a 63 inch reach, while Rodriguez is 33, 5.’6 and with a 65 inch reach. So Rodriguez has a 5 inch height and 2 inch reach advantage on Esparza, however, it’s the rare occurrence where you have the slightly younger fighter in Esparza at 32, the one with more UFC experience, as Marina Rodriguez is kind of a late bloomer so to speak. 

Carla Esparza debuted in the UFC in 2014, she has a 7-4 record since then, with 1 stoppage win and 6 decisions. She’s lost twice by stoppage and twice by decision in the UFC. 8 of Espraza’s 11 UFC fights have gone the distance, and 9 have gone over the betting total.

As for Marina Rodriguez, she’s 2-0-2 since coming into the UFC in 2018, with 2 decision wins and 2 draws. All 4 of her UFC fights have gone the distance and have gone Over the betting total. 

The thing for me with this fight is all about expectations, alot of people thought that Esparza lost her last fight at UFC 249 to Michelle Waterson, and I think because of that she’s getting the underdog side of this match-up because of that underwhelming performance. But I mean, when looking at Marina Rodriguez, she’s performed below expectations since she’s come into the UFC, probably with exception to that fight against Teshia Torres.

I know that Rodriguez has some heavy hands for featherweight, but look Carla Esparza’s tough and she clearly knows what it takes to win on the judge’s scorecards, she’s gonna be a little bit more experienced in this situation, as she’s already fought in the empty arena in her last fight at UFC 249 in May. and look, I know the sharps are all on Rodriguez by Decision, but i’m gonna go contrarian here. I think there’s a path to victory for Esparza, not gonna go crazy on it, but I think it’s worth a half unit shot. Give me Carla Esparza by decision at +165.

Heavyweight

Fabrício Werdum (+309) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (-333)

Alright so Werdum, he’ll be 43 next month, he’s 6’4 with a 77 inch reach, while Gustafsson is 33 years old, 6’5 with a 79 inch reach. So Gustafsson is the much younger fighter, and has a height and reach advantage here. Both fighters are 2-3 in their last five, and are both coming off back to back losses,

Werdum is 14-7 since debuting in the UFC back in 2007. Since 2012 he’s 8-4, picking up stoppage wins in 5 of those 12 fights, and the other 3 wins coming by way of decision. Werdum has gone to the judge’s scorecards in 7 of his last 12 UFC fights, with the Over/Under splitting at 6-6. 

Since his debut in 2009, Alexander Gustafsson is 10-6 in the UFC, however in his last 9 UFC bouts, going back to 2012, he’s is just 4-5, dropping 3 fights by way of stoppage and 2 by decision. 5 of his last 9 UFC bouts have ended inside the distance, however, the total has actually gone 6-3 to the Over in those 9 fights since 2012. 

With this fight, I think it’s two guys that are more or less past their primes of their career, I mean without question that’s the case with Werdum. Now, Fabricio Werdum is without a doubt one of the greatest grapplers in MMA of all time, but he’s far from the fighter he once was, especially at his age. Gustavsson is known for his striking ability, but he might not be the same type of fighter that we’ve known from watching him at Light Heavyweight, fighting at heavyweight is a pretty big jump, so it’ll be interesting to see what he brings against a grappler like Werdum. 

I think there is some value on Fabricio Werdum here, you know Gustafsson probably wins this fight, but there’s just far too many question marks for him, coming back at heavyweight, retiring over a year ago, I know he had an exhibition bout a little while ago, but still… you’re going from being off the couch, moving up a weight division and then facing one of the greatest UFC heavyweights of all time, it’s a pretty tough ask, I think the odds are way out of line. I think alot of people are judging Werdum off of his last fight, he was a heavy favorite in that fight, and you look at Fabricio Werdum’s career, he’s had many upset victories as an underdog, he’s definitely not going to take Gustafsson lightly. I like the value on Werdum here, not a giant wager, about a half unit, but I think there’s value on the former heavyweight champ in this one. 

As for the total, I got a good feeling that this fight goes the distance. Between the two of them, over their last 21 UFC fights, they have a 12-9 record to the Over. 4 of Gustafsson’s last 9 fights have gone the distance, while 5 of Werdum’s last 12 have gone to the judges. At Bet365 you can get the Fight to go the distance at +125, as well as the Over 2.5 rounds at +even money. So I think there’s value there. Even with Gustafsson, in his last fight against Anthony Smith, the fight went into the later rounds before Smith caught him on the ground and got off a choke to finish him. I can see this one going 15 minutes. Give me the dog, the distance, and the Over in this one. 


Light Heavyweight

Maurício Rua (-161) vs. Antônio Rogério Nogueira (+170)

So Nogueira is 44 years old, he has a 23-9 professional record, he’s 6’2 with a 75 inch reach. 

Meanwhile, Shogun is 38 years old, 26-11-1 professional record, he’s 6’1 and a 76-inch reach.

So Rua is the younger fighter, and he’s got a slight height and reach advantage.

So since coming into the UFC in 2009, Nogueira is 6-6, although he’s won just 2 of his last 7 fights by stoppage, going back to 2013, so not a whole of great performances by Noguiera as of late. As for Shogun, he’s 10-9-1 since debuting in the UFC all the way back in 2007, but since 2012 he’s had 12 fights, he’s dropped 4 of those by stoppage, and won 4 by stoppage. So both these guys have had a very up and down run in the twilight of their careers. Nogueira’s had the fight go Under the total in 4 of his last 7 fights, while Shogun has gone Under the total in 6 of his last 12. 

I think the value is on Nogueira here. I’m not overly confident, but I do think there is value here. As far as the measure of expectation goes, Nogueira has performed way better against what his expectations have been in his career in comparison to Shogun. I still think there’s something left from him, and especially in a rematch of a fight he lost. My only concern is betting on a 44yr old to who’s had alot of up and downs in his career and has taken alot of damage. I’m gonna take a very small shot on Little Nog here, like a 1% play. Based on my data, this should be like a 1unit/2.5% bet, but I’m just not confident enough to play a full unit here. 

I like the Under alot in this fight, Under 1.5 at even money I think is a value play, especially considering these guys have had a tendency not to go the distance. So give me Nogieura and the Under 1.5 Rounds in this one.

Middleweight Robert Whittaker (-138) vs Darren Till (+100)

(VIDEO) UFC Fight Island 3: Whittaker vs Till – Main Event Betting Guide



SparkSportsBestBets
UFC Fight Island 3

3.3% – Darren Till -104

1.4% – Whittaker/Till (Fight Goes Distance) +110

1% – Whittaker/Till o3.5 (-125)

1% – Antonio Nogueira +153

2.1% – Nogueira/Rua u1.5 (-101)

1.25% – Fabricio Werdum +275

2.3% – Werdum/Gustafsson (Fight Goes Distance) -105

1.6% – Werdum/Gustafsson o2.5 (-107)

1.25% – Carla Esparza (by Decision) +165

4.6% – Paul Craig -126

2.8% – Craig/Antigulov u1.5 (-123)

5% – Alex Oliveira (Inside the Distance) +150

2.6% – Oliveira/Sabbota (Fight Doesn’t Go Distance) -145

1.1% – Oliveira/Sabbota u2.5 (+103)

1.1% – McKee/Chimaev o1.5 (+177)

1.1% – Rhys McKee +725

2.5% – Francisco Trinaldo (By Decision) +190
1.1% – Jesse Ronson +200

2.1% – Jake Collier +249

1.1% – Collier/Aspinall (Fight Goes Distance) +225
1% – Grundy/Evloev u2.5 (+202)

1% – Raphael Pessoa +213

1% – Pessoa/Boser u2.5 (+141)

1% – Pannie Kianzad (by Decision) +110

1% – Pannie Kianzad -147
1% – Stolze/Emeev u2.5 (+216)

1% – Niklas Stolze +320

1% – John Castaneda +335

1% – Wood/Castaneda o2.5 (+105)

 

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