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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
(Verified via OddsPortal)
UFC Women’s Bantamweight
Bethe Correia (+128) vs Pannie Kianzad (-139)
With this being a ‘coin flip’ fight, the Women’s Bantamweight division has seen a trend towards the coin flip favorite at -150 or better going 5-2 for +1.84 units profit over the last year and a half. Kianzad is -146 to Correia at +118, so this is a typical coin flip fight, at first I lean towards the favorite here just based on that trend.
Beyond that, as far as the total, the Over in this division has hit at a 79% rate, going 23-6 for +4.7u profit over the last year and a half. Based on an implied probability, an ‘Over’ in this division is a +EV bet at -380 or better, however, the ‘Over 2.5’ rounds prop is currently sitting at -455, far outside of the value price range. At +312, there is value on the under in this one.
UFC Men’s Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo (-160) vs Jai Herbert (+158)
The Favorite in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division has been immensely profitable and probable over the last year and a half, winning 71% of matches, going 75-30 for +5.02 units profit. Based on that trend, the buy price on the favorite at Lightweight is at -245 or better. Currently, Francisco Trinaldo is sitting at an average market price of -167, well within the value range for this trend.
As for the total, the ‘Over’ in the Lightweight division has been probable and slightly profitable over the last year and a half, going 65-41 (61%) for +1.36 units profit. Based on implied probability, the buy price at (61%) is about -159 or better, while the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently sitting outside of that value range, at about -185.
UFC Women’s Strawweight
Carla Esparza (+148) vs Marina Rodriguez (-161)
The favorite in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has won at a 72% rate over the last year and a half, going 29-10-1 for +4.77 units profit. Bettors who have wagered $100 on the favorite, over the 40 fights in the strawweight division since January of last year, profited +$12 per bet, win or lose. Implied probability has the buy price on the favorite at strawweight at around -264, while Marina Rodriguez is currently sitting at -167. Based on these numbers, there is substantial value on Rodriguez at the current price.
As for the total, the ‘Over’ has hit at a 75% rate since the start of 2019, going 30-10 for +1.02 units profit. With 3 out of every 4 fights in this division going over, implied probability has the buy price on this trend at -300 or better. Unfortunately, the secret is out on this division tendency, as the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in this fight is currently sitting at -475.
UFC Men’s Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (-110) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+105)
Fabrício Werdum (+269) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-331)
There is two UFC Light Heavyweight bouts on the UFC Fight Island 3 card. The ‘coin flip’ favorite has been profitable and probable at Light Heavyweight over the last year and a half, going 10-7 for +0.89u profit. Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov is shaping up to close as a ‘coin flip’, so getting on the favorite site of that trend wouldn’t be a bad idea what so ever.
The Underdog at Light Heavyweight has been profitable, winning 40% of fights in this division since January of 2019. With a 23-35-1 record for +1.31 units profit, the dog at Light Heavyweight has value at +150 or better. Antônio Rogério Nogueira is in the co-main event, and is currently a +153 underdog. Based on this division trend, there is value on Nogueira at the current price.
The total at Light Heavyweight has been perfectly split down the middle since the start of 2019, going 29-29-1. The ‘Under’ is a hair below the margin of profit at -0.24 units, but at 49%, there is value on the Under in this division at +103 or better. The ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop in the Craig/Antigulov fight is currently at -134, while the ‘Under 1.5’ in Rua/Nogueira is currently at +100. If some more money comes in on the ‘Over’ in the Rua/Nogueira bout, there may be some value that becomes available.
UFC Men’s Heavyweight
Fabrício Werdum (+289) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-331)
Tom Aspinall (-200) vs Jake Collier (+186)
Tanner Boser (-235) vs Raphael Pessoa (+216)
While the ‘Coin Flip Dog’ in the UFC Men’s Heavyweight division has had success over the last year and a half (14-7, +7.57u). There isn’t a single fight out of the three heavyweight bouts on the card that is in the ‘coin flip’ range.
As for the total, the ‘Over’ has hit at a 60% at heavyweight since the start of 2020, going 12-8 for +2.8 units profit. At 60%, the buy price on the ‘Over’ in this division is -150 or better. Currently, the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop in the Collier/Aspinall fight is listed at -150. ‘Over 2.5’ in Werdum/Gustavsson is -101. While the ‘Over 2.5’ in Pessoa/Boser is outside of the value range at -169. There is value on the over in two of the three heavyweight bouts on this card.
Meanwhile, the Underdog at Heavyweight is just barely in the black, currently sitting at 25-36-2 for +0.1 units profit, over the last year and a half. At 39%, the dog has value in this division at +152 or better, while all three heavyweight dogs on this card are currently at least +170 or better. While it’s risky business to back a 39% trend that is barely above profit, when you’re getting almost 2-1 odds on all three underdogs, you can’t exactly go wrong.
UFC Men’s Welterweight
Alex Oliveira (-162) vs. Peter Sobotta (+150)
Khamzat Chimaev (-833) vs. Rhys McKee (+800)
Nicolas Dalby (-249) vs. Jesse Ronson (+225)
Ramazan Emeev (-370) vs. Niklas Stolze (+330)
It is a Welterweight heavy card with 4 bouts on this card at 170lbs. The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019 has been immensely profitable, going 70-34 for +17.91u. At a 67% rate, the ‘Over’ in the Welterweight division has value, based on implied probability, at -207 or better. Dalby/Ronson is just barely in the price range at ‘Over 2.5’ at -204, Emeev/Stolze is far out of the price range at -286, while the ‘Over 1.5’ in Chimaev/McKee is currently sitting at +171. Finally, Oliveira/Sobotta is the last Welterweight fight of the night, with the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop sitting at -128.
Meanwhile, as far as a side goes, the Underdog has been very lucrative over the last year and a half, going 45-59 for +17.52 units profit. Bettors who have wagered $100 on the underdog in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019, have profited +$1752, that’s +$17 per fight, win or lose. At 43%, the buy price on the dog is +131 or better, which every Welterweight dog on this card is.
UFC Men’s Middleweight Division – Main Event.
Robert Whittaker (-109)) vs Darren Till (+100)
The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s middleweight division has been profitable and probable, going 40-22 for +3.31u. At 64%, implied probability has the buy price on the ‘Over’ in the middleweight division to be at -182 or better, while the ‘Over 4.5 Rounds’ prop in Whittaker/Till is currently listed at +101
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