UFC Fight Island 3 – Division Betting Trends


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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
237-175, +9.91u
(Verified via OddsPortal)

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UFC Men’s Bantamweight
Nathaniel Wood (-412) vs. John Castaneda (+375)

The big trend here that sticks out, not as far as profits but as far as probability goes, the favorite has won at a 64% rate in the UFC Men’s Bantamweight division going back to January of 2019, going 58-30-2. But at 64%, the buy price on the favorite is at about -180, while Nathaniel Wood is currently sitting far north of that at -412. Based on the trend, the value is on the dog at +333.

As far as the total goes, the ‘Over’ in the UFC men’s bantamweight division is hitting at a 61% rate at 55-35 over the last year and a half, and again, not exactly profitable, but probable at 61%, and based on implied probability, if the the ‘Over’ prop is at -157 or better, it’s worth betting. The current total on this fight is sitting at ‘2.5 Rounds’ with the ‘Over’ at +111. Alot of value on that number, based on these trends. 

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UFC Women’s Bantamweight
Bethe Correia (+128) vs Pannie Kianzad (-139)

With this being a ‘coin flip’ fight, the Women’s Bantamweight division has seen a trend towards the coin flip favorite at -150 or better going 5-2 for +1.84 units profit over the last year and a half.  Kianzad is -146 to Correia at +118, so this is a typical coin flip fight, at first I lean towards the favorite here just based on that trend. 

Beyond that, as far as the total, the Over in this division has hit at a 79% rate, going 23-6 for +4.7u profit over the last year and a half. Based on an implied probability, an ‘Over’ in this division is a +EV bet at -380 or better, however, the ‘Over 2.5’ rounds prop is currently sitting at -455, far outside of the value price range. At +312, there is value on the under in this one.

UFC Men’s Featherweight
Movsar Evloev (-189) vs Mike Grundy (+175)

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has been a profitable and probable trend, hitting at a 65% rate since the start of 2019 (56-29) for +6.86 units profit. Based on implied probability, the ‘Over’ in the featherweight division is a solid bet to make at anything better than -190. The only problem, the ‘Over’ in this fight is currently listed at -233. If you were going to back the other side of this trend, the buy price at 31% is +193, and the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop is only at +176. 

As for a side, the favorite in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division has been a probable outcome over the last year and a half, going 52-33-1 for a win rate of 60%. Based on this trend, the buy price on favorite at featherweight is at about -150, while Movsar Evloev is currently sitting far beyond that price range at about -195. If you’re fading this 60% trend, the buy price on the Underdog would be at +161, and Mike Grundy is currently sitting at +164. Based on the division trends, there is value on the underdog at that price.

728x90UFC Men’s Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo (-160) vs Jai Herbert (+158)

The Favorite in the UFC Men’s Lightweight division has been immensely profitable and probable over the last year and a half, winning 71% of matches, going 75-30 for +5.02 units profit. Based on that trend, the buy price on the favorite at Lightweight is at -245 or better. Currently, Francisco Trinaldo is sitting at an average market price of -167, well within the value range for this trend. 

As for the total, the ‘Over’ in the Lightweight division has been probable and slightly profitable over the last year and a half, going 65-41 (61%) for +1.36 units profit. Based on implied probability, the buy price at (61%) is about -159 or better, while the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop is currently sitting outside of that value range, at about -185.
Bet on XbetUFC Women’s Strawweight
Carla Esparza (+148) vs Marina Rodriguez (-161)

The favorite in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has won at a 72% rate over the last year and a half, going 29-10-1 for +4.77 units profit. Bettors who have wagered $100 on the favorite, over the 40 fights in the strawweight division since January of last year, profited +$12 per bet, win or lose. Implied probability has the buy price on the favorite at strawweight at around -264, while Marina Rodriguez is currently sitting at -167. Based on these numbers, there is substantial value on Rodriguez at the current price. 
As for the total, the ‘Over’ has hit at a 75% rate since the start of 2019, going 30-10 for +1.02 units profit. With 3 out of every 4 fights in this division going over, implied probability has the buy price on this trend at -300 or better. Unfortunately, the secret is out on this division tendency, as the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop in this fight is currently sitting at -475. 

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UFC Men’s Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig (-110) vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov (+105)
Fabrício Werdum (+269) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-331)

There is two UFC Light Heavyweight bouts on the UFC Fight Island 3 card. The ‘coin flip’ favorite has been profitable and probable at Light Heavyweight over the last year and a half, going 10-7 for +0.89u profit. Paul Craig vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov is shaping up to close as a ‘coin flip’, so getting on the favorite site of that trend wouldn’t be a bad idea what so ever. 

The Underdog at Light Heavyweight has been profitable, winning 40% of fights in this division since January of 2019. With a 23-35-1 record for +1.31 units profit, the dog at Light Heavyweight has value at +150 or better. Antônio Rogério Nogueira is in the co-main event, and is currently a +153 underdog. Based on this division trend, there is value on Nogueira at the current price.

The total at Light Heavyweight has been perfectly split down the middle since the start of 2019, going 29-29-1. The ‘Under’ is a hair below the margin of profit at -0.24 units, but at 49%, there is value on the Under in this division at +103 or better. The ‘Under 1.5 Rounds’ prop in the Craig/Antigulov fight is currently at -134, while the ‘Under 1.5’ in Rua/Nogueira is currently at +100. If some more money comes in on the ‘Over’ in the Rua/Nogueira bout, there may be some value that becomes available. 

UFC Men’s Heavyweight
Fabrício Werdum (+289) vs Alexander Gustafsson (-331)
Tom Aspinall (-200) vs Jake Collier (+186)
Tanner Boser (-235) vs Raphael Pessoa (+216)

While the ‘Coin Flip Dog’ in the UFC Men’s Heavyweight division has had success over the last year and a half (14-7, +7.57u). There isn’t a single fight out of the three heavyweight bouts on the card that is in the ‘coin flip’ range.

As for the total, the ‘Over’ has hit at a 60% at heavyweight since the start of 2020, going 12-8 for +2.8 units profit. At 60%, the buy price on the ‘Over’ in this division is -150 or better. Currently, the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop in the Collier/Aspinall fight is listed at -150. ‘Over 2.5’ in Werdum/Gustavsson is -101. While the ‘Over 2.5’ in Pessoa/Boser is outside of the value range at -169. There is value on the over in two of the three heavyweight bouts on this card. 

Meanwhile, the Underdog at Heavyweight is just barely in the black, currently sitting at 25-36-2 for +0.1 units profit, over the last year and a half. At 39%, the dog has value in this division at +152 or better, while all three heavyweight dogs on this card are currently at least +170 or better. While it’s risky business to back a 39% trend that is barely above profit, when you’re getting almost 2-1 odds on all three underdogs, you can’t exactly go wrong.

UFC Men’s Welterweight
Alex Oliveira (-162) vs. Peter Sobotta (+150)
Khamzat Chimaev (-833) vs. Rhys McKee (+800)
Nicolas Dalby (-249) vs. Jesse Ronson (+225)
Ramazan Emeev (-370) vs. Niklas Stolze (+330)

It is a Welterweight heavy card with 4 bouts on this card at 170lbs. The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019 has been immensely profitable, going 70-34 for +17.91u. At a 67% rate, the ‘Over’ in the Welterweight division has value, based on implied probability, at -207 or better. Dalby/Ronson is just barely in the price range at ‘Over 2.5’ at -204, Emeev/Stolze is far out of the price range at -286, while the ‘Over 1.5’ in Chimaev/McKee is currently sitting at +171. Finally, Oliveira/Sobotta is the last Welterweight fight of the night, with the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop sitting at -128. 

Meanwhile, as far as a side goes, the Underdog has been very lucrative over the last year and a half, going 45-59 for +17.52 units profit. Bettors who have wagered $100 on the underdog in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division since January of 2019, have profited +$1752, that’s +$17 per fight, win or lose. At 43%, the buy price on the dog is +131 or better, which every Welterweight dog on this card is.

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UFC Men’s Middleweight Division – Main Event.
Robert Whittaker (-109)) vs Darren Till (+100)

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Men’s middleweight division has been profitable and probable, going 40-22 for +3.31u. At 64%, implied probability has the buy price on the ‘Over’ in the middleweight division to be at -182 or better, while the ‘Over 4.5 Rounds’ prop in Whittaker/Till is currently listed at +101

Full Main Event Break via MMASucka.com

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