UFC on ESPN 13 – Betting Trends + Best Bets

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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
215-146, +17.51u
(Verified via OddsPortal)

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UFC Men’s Catchweight (174 lb)

Abdul Razak Alhassan (-315) vs Mounir Lazzez (+285)


Fighter Trends: 

Razak Al-Hassan has won 4 of his 5 UFC fights by stoppage, going back to his debut in 2016. Backing Alhassan ‘Inside the Distance’ has been profitable over his UFC career, going 4-1, +2.18 units profit. The ‘Under’ has hit in 4 of Alhassan’s 5 UFC fights, for a profit of +2.12 units. I think Al-Hassan gets it done inside the distance, which may be worth throwing into a parlay.

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UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Molly McCann (-139) vs Taila Santos (+138)

Fighter Trends: 

Since debuting in 2018, Molly McCann has gone to decision in 3 of her 4 UFC fights. Bettors backing McCann by decision in those fights have gone 3-1 for +4.95 units profit. McCann has also been profitable to back straight up, going 6-1 for +4.23 units on the moneyline in her MMA career, going back to 2017. I am confident backing McCann with a full unit to pick up the victory by way of decision.


Division Trends:

Since the start of 2020, the Underdog in the UFC Women’s flyweight division has been quite profitable, going 7-8 for +6.59 units profit. Meanwhile, over the last year and a half, the ‘coin flip’ favorite of -150 or better has won 64% of bouts in this division, going 9-5, for +1.7 units. This ‘underdog’ trend doesn’t scare me off McCann in this fight, and if I’m going to back her, I would much rather get +money on the ‘by Decision’ prop, rather than backing her as a ‘coin flip’ -130 favorite. As for the total, the over in this division has gone 37-15 for -0.28 units over the last year and a half. Not exactly profitable, but the prop is still hitting at a 71% rate. This trend gives a reason to be confident in backing McMann by decision. 

Best Bets:
2.5% – Molly McCann (By Decision)

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UFC Men’s Featherweight Division
Jimmie Rivera (-130) vs Cody Stamann (+120)

Fighter Trends:
Cody Stamann has won by decision in 5 of his 7 career UFC fights dating back to 2017. Bettors who backed Stamann to win by decision over those 7 fights went 5-2 for +4.74 units profit. Meanwhile, Jimmie Rivera has gone to decision in 5 of his 9 UFC fights, going back to 2015. Betting Rivera by decision has gotten backers a record of 5-4 for +4.05 units. Rivera backers have gone 7-3 straight up on the moneyline throughout his MMA career, for +4.43 units profit. While Stamann has gone 5-1-1 for +2.87 units. Between Stamann and Rivera’s 16 combined career UFC fights, 13 of them have gone to decision. That’s a combined decision rate of 81%. My initial reaction was to stay away from the ‘by Decision’ prop, but after seeing the Over 2.5 rounds prop listed at -380, I feel much more confident taking Stamann to win via scorecards. 


Division Trends

Since 2019 the ‘Coin flip underdog’ has gone 20-15 for +6.24 units profit in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division. Cody Stamann is currently in the ‘coin flip’ range as a +112 underdog. As for the total, the ‘Over’ prop has gone 52-28 for +4.91 units at featherweight. This trend makes me even more confident in Stamann picking up the decision victory. 

Best Bets:
2.5% – Cody Stamann by Decision +160

UFC Men’s Flyweight
Tim Elliott (-125) vs Ryan Benoit (+115)

Fighter Trends

Ryan Benoit has won 2 of his 7 UFC fights by stoppage. Backing Benoit to win ‘Inside the Distance’ has profited +6.09 units with a record of just 2-5. Meanwhile, Tim Elliot’s opponents have enjoyed success with the judge’s scorecards, as Elliot has dropped 5 of his 12 UFC fights by decision. If you’ve backed Tim Elliot’s opponents to win ‘by Decision’ you’ve gone 5-7 for +5.68 units over the last eight years. I have a strong lean towards Ryan Benoit in this bout, it’s just tough to decide which method of victory to take. Benoit has won 6 of his last 11 MMA fights going back to 2012, going 6-5 for +3.77 units on the moneyline. While I’m not completely sold on betting Benoit ‘Inside the Distance’ or ‘by Decision’ I am content with putting a 2.1% wager on him to win outright at +105. 
Division Trends: 

Since 2019, the ‘Under’ has been a profitable trend to back in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division. Hitting at a 43% rate, the ‘Under’ has still managed to profit with a 13-17 record, for +3.89 units. I am confident taking a 1% shot at this fight to go Under the total.

Best Bets:
2.1% – Ryan Benoit +103
1% – Benoit/Elliot u2.5 (+134)


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UFC Men’s Featherweight

Calvin Kattar (-290) vs Dan Ige (+265)

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Best Bets: 
5% – Calvin Kattar (Inside the Distance) -125
2.6% – Kattar/Ige u3.5 (-118)

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UFC on ESPN 13
5% – Calvin Kattar (Inside the Distance) -125
2.6% – Kattar/Ige u3.5 (-118)
2.1% – Ryan Benoit +103
1% – Benoit/Elliot u2.5 (+134)
2.5% – Cody Stamann (by Decision) +160
2.5% – Molly McMann (by Decision) +115
2.5% – Kattar/Ige (Inside Distance), Alhassan/Lazzez (Inside Distance) (Parlay) -115
1% – Phillips/Chimaev o1.5 (+134)
2.8% – Alhassan (Inside the Distance), Chimaev (Inside the Distance) (Parlay) +141
2.5% – Ricardo Ramos (By Decision) +158
1% – Andreas Michailidis +130
2.5% – Jared Gordon (Inside the Distance) +230
2.5% – Gordon/Fishgold u2.5 (-142)
2.5% – Liana Jojua +173
1.8% – Jojua/Belbita o2.5, Gordon/Fishgold (Inside the Distance) (Parlay) +135
1% – Aaron Phillips +590
1% – Phillips/Shore o1.5 (-127)


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