Warriors/Raptors Game 3: Predictions Cheat Sheet

Bet on MyBookiePredictive Analysis Of Game 2.

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Raptors lost their first game of the playoffs when leading in rebounds. With 49 to the Warriors 42, the Raptors are now 7-1 in the postseason when collecting more boards than their opponent. The Warriors bucked a hot in-game Raptors playoff streak in the second half of game 2. Coming into the 2H of game 2, the Raptors were 11-1 in the playoffs when leading after the 1st half. The Raptors lead was 27-26 after the 1Q and were 11-2 when leading after the 1st QTR in the playoffs. However, with the Warriors 109-104 win that trend cools, as does the Raptors at home winning streak of 5 and falls to 9-3 at home in the playoffs. The Warriors shot at 46% from the field but the sub .500 percentage didn’t matter, the Raptors record of 13-5 when their opponent shoots less than 50% in the playoffs drops to 13-6. Also their playoff record of 11-4 when scoring 100+ pts falls to 11-5 with the loss after scoring 104pts in game 2. The Raptors playoff record falls to 13-7 after the home loss to the Warriors in game 2 and their home record falls to 9-3 in the playoffs and 10-7 in the playoffs when shooting less than 50% from the field. After being doubled in assists by the Warriors in game 2, the Raptors record when they have fewer assists than their opponent in the playoffs falls to 5-6, as well – the Raptors record when allowing 100pts or more this postseason falls to 3-6. The Raptors won both Game 5 and Game 6 vs Milwaukee after trailing in the 3rd Q. However, overall they are now 2-5 in the post-season when trailing headed into the 4th Q. They are also now 2-6 when outshot by their opponent’s field goal percentage.

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As for the Warriors, they improve to 11-1 when they outshooting their opponents FG % in the playoffs, as well their record when their opponent shoots less than 50% from the field improves to 13-2. The Warriors lead 88-80 after the 3rd Q, and were 8-2 when leading after the 3rd QTR in the playoffs. They improved that trend to 9-2 even after trailing after the 1st half. Impressively the Warriors are now 4-1 in the 2019 playoffs when trailing after the 1st Q.

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In game 2, Golden State assisted on every basked in the second half, and finished game 2 with double the amount of assists than the Raptors (34-17) and improve their record when out assisting their opponents to 12-4. The Warriors also improve their playoff record to 13-5 after game 2 and are yet to score less than 100pts in a playoff game this season. Their regular season record in 18/19 was 0-8 when scoring less than 100pts. However the Warriors haven’t scored less than 100pts in a playoff game since GM5 of the 2018 WCF vs Houston (Loss: 94-98)

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After the 109-104 win by the Warriors, Golden State’s road record in the playoffs improves to 7-3. They also improve to 10-5 in the playoffs when allowing 100pts or more, and 8-4 in the playoffs when shooting less than 50% from the field. Also, after the game 2 come back win over the Raptors. The Warriors have now won 4 of the 7 games in the playoffs in which they trailed at half time. They are also now 4-1 this postseason when trailing after 1st Q and 8-1 in the playoffs when they have fewer steals than their opponent.

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Going forward the key to the series might be this… The Raptors are 3-0 this post-season when shooting +50% from the field. The Warriors are 0-3 when their opponent shoots +50% from the field.

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Something to consider:

With Curry, Durant, Green and Thompson in the line up, the Warriors are: 44-12 in 18/19 regular season, 7-4 in 2019 playoffs, 17-5 in the playoffs since 2017. They are 8-1 in the playoffs without Kevin Durant. However, Klay Thompson is questionable for Game 3 with a hamstring injury. The Warriors are 11-14 since 2013 when Klay Thompson is out of the line; 6-11 Since 2016. He has NEVER missed a playoff game.

Official Warriors Game 3: Media Notes – Click Here

Official Raptors Game 3: Media Notes – Click Here

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Betting Trends:

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An encouraging betting angle for Raptors backers going into games 3 and 4 in Oakland…
Fading the Warriors @ Home in the 2019 NBA playoffs has been an immensely profitable en devour. Bettors have gone: 2-6, +13.18u betting against the Dubs at home, that’s an ROI of +4.12% per wager and $100 bettors are netting +$165 per bet, win or lose.

GM2 vs LAC +902 (131-135),
GM5 vs LAC +1016 (121-129)

One of the hottest trends going for bettors in Raptors playoff games has been the 4Q under. Along with being one of the hottest trends alone in the NBA Playoffs. The Raptors have had the 4Q go under in 16 of their 20 playoff games so far. An ROI of +1.32% per wager, and $100 bettors are netting +$53 per bet win or lose. Overall throughout the entire NBA playoffs the 4Q under has gone: 47-30-1, +12.77u

Another hot Raptors playoff trend has been the 2H under which improved in game 2 to 15-4-1. The Warriors 2H Under has also been profitable in the playoffs improving to 12-6 in game 2. The pre-game 2H under in game 2 closed around 103.5 at offshore books. The 2H total in-game was around 108.5. The 2H final score landed on 100.

Another Raptors hot streak that was snapped was their 2H ATS run which was hitting at about 68% in the playoffs so far. In game 2, the Raptors were -1 pre-game at offshore books that offered the 2H ATS line. Unfortunately for Raptors backers the 3Q did them in and the Raptors lost the 2H by 10 pts. Their 2H ATS record in the playoffs falls to 13-6-1

The Warriors on the other hand who have also been on a hot streak in the 2H have improved their 2H ATS record to 12-6 with a 10pt margin of victory over the Raptors in the 2H of game 2.

On a more positive Raptors note the dinos are still continuing to dominate in the 1st half of games in the playoffs. Covering the 1H spread of -1.5 and improving their 1H ATS record in the playoffs to: 13-6-1, +5.83u so far.

As for the hot trends on the Warriors side. The 2Q Over in Warriors playoff games improves to 14-4 after a 2Q betting total of 54 gets to 60 (32-28). The over on the road in Warriors playoff games stayed idle at 7-2-2 as the total of 213 landed on a push with the two final points coming from the Iguodala dagger at the end of the 4th Q.

With the Warriors win on the road they improve their road playoff record to: 9-3 and ML backers of the Warriors on the road have gone: 9-3, +3.44u so far in the playoffs.

On the cold side of trendy bets for the Warriors. Betting against them in the 2Q on the ATS line has been profitable all playoffs. After game 2’s 2Q score of 32-28 for the Raptors. Fading the Warriors in the 2Q ATS has improved to 13-5, +6.83u so far in the playoffs.

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Spark Sports’ Betting Tips:

Based on the matter in which the odds were posted for this game 3, there is only one side to take in this game and that is on the side of the Toronto Raptors. Vegas and the offshore markets were so fast to make the Warriors a -6 home favorite, even without the injury information on Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney and Kevin Durant – which is why we are seeing so much money coming in on Toronto. The line has since moved down to as low as -4.5, considering that Looney was updated to out indefinitely. Klay was updated to questionable and Durant – who we are pretty sure will not return to the Warriors line up for the remainder of the playoffs – was also updated as OUT for game 3.

Not only that but the Warriors – although, have fared well at home in the playoffs, from a betting standpoint have been a great investment to bet against, simply because of their two losses to the Clippers in the first round. The Warriors are 6-2 at home, although bettors who have faded the Warriors at home on the moneyline are 2-6, +13.18u, losing twice to the Clippers at 9-1 and 10-1 odds.

The Warriors are a disappointing 3-5 ATS at home so far in the playoffs. Considering the injury questions and the line up uncertainty, backing the Raptors here is the smart move to make.

You can find the Warriors offshore at places like 1Xbet, Bet365, Intertops, Pinnacle and even in the United States at William Hill, at a consensus line of +4.5. This is well worth a shot at a 1.5% stake, without a doubt. It is also not outside the realm of suggestion to buy the 4.5 up to 6.5, even if you are laying -145 in juice. There is very little confidence that the Warriors should be 6.5pt favorites, with so many injuries concerns in their line up.

Also considering that the road team has been profitable as a blind bet in these playoffs at 32-46, +12.61u and the underdog is profitable at 25-53, +5.6u. There is only one way to bet this game wisely, and that’s by backing the Raptors.

Another MUST bet to make in this game is the 4Q UNDER. The Raptors 4Q Under is 16-4 in the playoffs, For the Warriors it is 10-8, and in the NBA playoffs overall the 4Q UNDER is 47-30-1, +12.77u, an ROI of +0.41% per bet and $100 bettors have been netting +$16 per bet, win or lose. If you’ve been betting this from the start of the post-seaosn like we have – there is absolutely no reason not be riding the 4Q Under here, you’re playing with house money. Besides the +EV factor, as far as a handicap is concerned, if this game is at all close – the pace will more than likely slow down and the shooting will more than likely speed up, so it may be a sweat but it is a solid bet to make. Currently offshore the 4Q total is 53.5 (via BetCris) jump on it now, it is a must bet!

Now something that is correlated to the Raptors 4Q Under worth looking at as well is the pre-flop market on the 2H total. The Raptors 2H’s have gone UNDER the total in 15 of their 20 games so far in the playoffs. Bettors are: 15-4-1, +9.65u. Considering what was mentioned previously, that the pace of this game will more than likely slowdown and defensive stops and clock management will be more and more of a factor. With the Raptors having the best defensive rating in these 2019 playoffs, it is obvious as to why these 2H unders are hitting so much.

The Raptors are either going to be shooting well and playing well defensively, or they are going to be struggling offensively, thus playing even BETTER on defense. That’s how they got to where they are right now.

Not to mention, that the Warriors 2H Under numbers are also profitable as a flat bet so far in the playoffs. 12-6, +4.92u to be exact. Also just a flat bet on the 2H Under in every NBA Playoff game has been profitable. 44-34, +6.04u an ROI of +0.19% per wager and $100 bettors are profiting +$8 per bet, win or lose. This is a no brainer. Not only that – but the full game under may be a no brainer as well.

The Raptors have the tendency to slow the pace down immensely in the 2nd half. By virtue of elite defense, or on the other end of the spectrum, by virtue of failing to shoot well. Whatever it is, this has been especially true on the road in the playoffs.

The under has hit in 6 of their 8 road games so far in the playoffs. The 2H Under; which you can find pre-flop on the global markets around 107 (1XBet: -110/-110) is worth a shot at a 3% stake.

The full game total currently sits where it was for game 2, roughly around 213 (BetCris: -110/-110) the under is worth a shot at just over a 2.5% stake.

Something else to take a serious look at in this game is the 2Q Over. In alot of these Warriors games, especially in the games in which they start at a slow pace. The 2Q has been where the Warriors offense starts to heat up, and at the same time – the defense seems to kind of open up in the 2Q where they slowly start to get away from the opening game plan when they start gaining confidence in their scoring.

The Warriors 2Q over is: 14-4 so far in the playoffs. This is definitely a play worth shooting more than just 1 unit at. Considering that overall in the NBA playoffs, the 2Q over is 41-36-1, +1.31u. So blindly betting 2Q Over in every NBA playoff game this year, you are SLIGHTLY profitable. That makes this a must play. The only reason this is not a MAX BET for us, is because the Raptors 2Q Under is 10-8-2 in the playoffs. That creates a small bit of doubt, but not enough to be trigger shy. This play is worth about a 3% stake.
At BetCris you can get the 2Q over at a total of 52 (-118/+102) but if you shop around, at places globally like 1XBet, the 2Q Over is 51.5 (-107/-115).

Another angle in the 2Q to look at is fading the Warriors on the ATS line. The Warriors are 5-13 ATS in the 2Q so far in the playoffs. To compliment that, consider taking the Warriors on the 1Q ATS line, as they are 12-5-1 in the opening quarter of the ball game so far in the playoffs. At BetCris you can get the Raptors 2Q +1 @ -115, at 1XBet you can get the Warriors 1Q -1.5 @ -110. Both are worth about a 2-2.5% stake.

Although the Raptors may not have the best ATS record so far in the playoffs (11-9), they are hitting at +60% so far as a 1H and 2H ATS team. The Raptors on the 2H and 1H ATS line are: 13-6-1 respectively. Both of these bets are worth making at about a 2% stake. Regardless if you have the Warriors on the 1Q ATS line. These Raptors playoff games have been a tale of 4 quarters. Just because the Warriors can cover in the 1Q, does not exactly mean that will correlate to a 1H ATS cover as well. You can get the Raptors 1H +2 globally at places like BetCris @ -107. You are also able to find the pre-flop 2H ATS line for this game at far away places like 1XBet at Raptors 2H +2 (-110)

The 1st quarter is going to dictate the pace of play for the rest of the game. Typically the Warriors have started off slow but speed up in the later part of the 1st half, this is notable because although the Warriors 1H Over record in the playoffs is 11-7, their 1Q under record is identical. The 1st half total in Vegas and at the offshore markets is a consensus of 104.5, which is a low total for two teams that can shoot well when they are locked in. The 1Q total can be found globally at places like Bet365, Intertops, Pinnacle, 1XBet at 53. It would be a wise move to back both of these plays at a 1 – 1.5% stake.

Something to take advantage of here coming into this game 3 is the massive overreaction of the public towards the Warriors 3Q ATS play. In the past the Warriors 3Q ATS play was an incredible success worth blindly betting every single game, especially in the playoffs.
However, the reality is that the Warriors have actually struggled to cover the number in the 3Q throughout the playoffs, regardless of their 20-0 run in game 2 which has resurrected the public’s confidence in the Warriors being a 3Q team.

This is a recency bias that we can exploit. In reality the Warriors are 8-10 ATS in the 3Q so far in the playoffs, and in fact that the Raptors so far in the playoffs are 12-8 ATS in the 3Q. Certainly, you can make no bones about it that the Raptors are not going to let themselves get ran out of the building in the 3Q like they did in game 2.

So add that into the factor of the recency bias towards the Warriors 3Q, and the extra motivation Toronto will have to stay with the Warriors to start the 2H. The 3Q ATS line on the Raptors side is an very easy side to get behind. You can find the Raptors on the 3Q ATS line of +1.5 as a consensus in Vegas and on the offshore markets. At BetCris at the time of this article being posted you can find the Raptors 3Q ATS line of +1.5 @ +102. This is incredible value when you factor in the previously mentioned, this is well worth a shot at a 1 – 1.5% stake normally. However, adding in the market bias and the motivation factor. This is a max bet situation.

One of the hottest props of the playoffs over the past few years has been the ‘Largest Lead Over Prop’ – something that we have been betting in every single NBA Playoff game this season, and although it hasn’t hit in the last 4 games, we are still profitable at 45-32-1, +8.95u. This prop is hard to find at some places, but is totally worth a shot at a 1% stake. If you haven’t jumped on it from the start, don’t over bet this because it only hits at about a 57% rate. File it away for next post-season because this is a prop that has been profitable for the past two years.

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In Game Betting Tips:

As far as in game goes, there is the always obvious trend of the 1Q going over thus the 1st half will go over the closing total. This is something that you may not have the opportunity to do because – if the pace picks up so much that the 1Q goes over by more than a few points, you may miss out on that original 1H total number. But if by chance if the 1Q goes over by just a small margin, or if the 2Q starts to slow down, it is always a good bet to make on the 1H over at the closing total number – when the 1Q has gone over.

The 1Q Over = 1H Over trend has gone: 29-8 so far in these playoffs. As well the 1Q Under = 1H Under trend has gone: 30-11 so far. So if you don’t mind writing down your closing 1H total down, and watching throughout the 2Q, you may be able to make some serious advantage plays at some point in the 1st half.

The same applies to the 2H, if you are willing to focus on the totals market you can make some more advantage plays. Depending on the outcome of the 3Q. If the 3Q goes under the 2H has gone under as well 68.6% of the time in the playoffs (24-11)

Now besides the obvious trends such as 1Q Over = 1H Over or 3Q Under = 2H Under. There are some prediction indicators in the pace of the game that have been profitable to ride so far in the playoffs. For example. If the 2Q goes over, the 4Q Under is hitting at 68.3% so far in the playoffs (28-13). This is mostly because of what was mentioned earlier in this article. The defense starts to die down and the pace starts to open up in the later part of the 1st half. However, if the game is close or within any kind of reachable margin for the trailing team – the pace slows down immensely in the 4Q. This is something worth tracking while watching the game live.

The same thinking can be applied to the 1H Over = 4Q Under trend which is hitting at a 65% rate in these playoffs (26-14). Also the 1Q Over = 4Q Under trend is hitting at 62% so far in the playoffs (23-14) and the 1Q Over = 2H Under trend is hitting at 62% with an identical record.

Also the 3Q Over = 4Q Under trend is hitting at a 61% rate in the playoffs (25-16) So overall, think of these non-correlating factors if the game is close. If the pace starts out hot in the 2H. Write down the 4Q closing total line (Currently 53.5) and add it to the total at the start of the 4Q. If the total is higher than what the current score is + the 53.5 at the start of the 4th. A significant shot at the full game under would be a great play to make.
Especially considering that overall the 4Q Under is hitting at a 60.3% rate in the playoffs, at 47-30-1.

Again, the pace of the game will depend mostly on the way the 1Q starts. If the 1Q starts slow, more than likely the 3Q will start fast. In fact, when the 1Q goes over, the 3Q over is 23-16-1 (57.5%) so far in the playoffs. Keep an eye on that as the game progresses.
Again, the same can be said about the 4Q. When the 1Q goes under the 4Q Under is hitting at 58.5% (24-17).

For in game wagering purposes, it is always useful to write down to closing numbers for each total to be able to fully take advantage of these pace trends.

Totals: (via BetCris + 1XBet)
1Q = 52.5
2Q = 52
3Q = 54
4Q = 53.5
1H = 105
2H = 107 (1XBet)


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SparkSportsBestBets

NBA Finals: Game 3
10.3% – Raptors +184 ✅
5% – Raptors (3Q) +1.5 (+102)✅
3.3% – GS/TOR (4Q) u53.5 (-108)✅
3.03% – GS/TOR (2Q) o51.5 (-107)❌
3.02% – GS/TOR (2H) u107 (-110)❌
2.7% – GS/TOR u213 (-110)❌
2.37% – Raptors (2Q) +1 (-113)✅
2.06% – Warriors (1Q) -1.5 (-110)
1.82% – Raptors (1H) +2 (-105)✅
1.82% – Raptors (2H) +2 (-110)✅
1.21% – Raptors +4.5 (-103)✅
1.05% – GS/TOR (1Q) u53 (-110)❌
1.05% – GS/TOR (1H) o104.5 (-110)✅
1% – GS/TOR (3Q) u54 (-108)❌
1% – Warriors (4Q) -0.5 (-108)❌
1% – Raptors +4.5, GS/TOR u213.5 (Parlay) +267❌
2.5% – Raptors +10, GS/TOR u219 (Teaser) -120❌


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