Wimbledon 2019: ATP Quarter Finals – Previews + Betting Trends

The 2019 Wimbledon Quarter Finals kicks off this morning on the ATP side at the All England Club. Get your Pimms and your strawberry ice cream, sit back and enjoy the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world.

If you feel like having a wager on the event, here is some key info for you for the ATP Quarter Finals!

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Djokovic/Goffin

Head to Head History:

Match Up Preview:

Djokovic has only lost one completed match in the quarterfinal stage of Wimbledon which was in 2009 vs Tommy Haas. Since the start of Wimbledon 2018, Djokovic has played in 31 grand slam matches and has won 30 of those matches.

Top seeds have failed to advance passed the quarter finals in the past two years. Federer lost to Kevin Anderson last year, and Andy Murray lost to Sam Querrey in 2017 – both in the quarterfinals.

Goffin won his first two matches at Wimbledon, he went the distance and defeated Daniil Medvedev and dropped a set in the round of 16 vs Fernando Verdasco. This is only Goffin’s third quarterfinal appearance at a Grand Slam event, both previous appearances resulted in Losses (Thiem in 2016 French Open, Dimitrov in 2017 US Open)

Djokovic has won 5 of 6 head to head matches vs Goffin, however only one of these matches was played in grass – in which Goffin won. Goffin has done very well on grass this season, his form and momentum should help him put on a decent showing here.

Betting Trends:

2019:
N. Djokovic: 31-6, -2.31u
D. Goffin: 24-16, -5.48u

Betting against David Goffin has been a profitable venture this season. Goffin has won 60% of his matches, however bettors fading Goffin have gone 16-24, +1.82u so far in 2019.
Fading Goffin is worth a shot at a 1% stake, but only in a parlay because Djokovic’s price is unbettable on it’s own.

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Pella/Bautista-Agut

Head to Head History:

Match Up Preview:

Guido Pella earned his spot in the quarter finals with a stunning come back victory over Canadian Milos Raonic. This was the 2nd 5 set match Pella has endured in this tournament, after needing 5 sets to bounce Andreas Seppi from the second round last week. Pella was winless in his last 3 matches on grass and had only won six grass matches before entering the draw at Wimbledon 2019.

Bautista-Agut hasn’t lost a set in this year’s Wimbledon tournament. Bautista-Agut has won 3/6 sets vs Pella at 6-0 and 6-1. This looks like an easy match for Bautista-Agut, however Pella has a large amount of momentum on his side and has nothing to lose here, which makes him a dangerous opponent to face.

Betting Trends:

2019:
G. Pella: 27-15, +11.19u
R. Bautista-Agut: 25-11, +7.03u

Bautista-Agut has won 69% of his matches and bettors backing him in 2019 have gone: 25-11, +7.03u, an ROI of +0.49% per wager and $100 bettors have netted +$20 per bet win or lose backing the Spainard. However, Guido Pella has more impressive numbers.
Pella has won only 64% of his matches, but he has been more profitable in 2019, bettors have gone: 27-15, +11.91u so far in 2019. An ROI of +0.71% per wager and $100 bettors have netted +$28 per bet win or lose backing the Argie.

Backing Guido Pella here is worth a shot at a 1.8% stake.

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Nishikori/Federer

Head to Head History:

Match Up Preview:

Roger Federer defeated red hot Matteo Berrettini in straight sets to get into the quarter finals of Wimbeldon 2019. The victory against Berrettini was his most impressive grass court match this season. Since dropping the opening set of this tournament to #86 Lloyd Harris, Federer has yet to lose a set – knocking off Jay Clarke, Lucas Pouille and Matteo Berrettini in straight sets. Roger Federer is the most successful tennis player to play in Wimbledon, winning the title 8 times and making the final 11 times. Federer’s two worst loses at Wimbledon were in the quarter finals and both matches he was up 2 sets to 0. (Tsonga in 2011, Anderson in 2018)

Nishikori has only dropped one set so far at this Wimbeldon 2019 tournament.

Federer is by far the better player on grass and is massively experienced at this stage.

Nishikori has beaten Federer three times, including in 2018 at ATP London (Nishikori 2-0)

Betting Trends:

2019:
R. Federer: 39-4, +2.83u
K. Nishikori: 26-9, -2.02u

Roger Federer has won 90% of his matches in 2019, bettors backing Fed have gone: 39-4, +2.83u, an ROI of +0.16% per bet and $100 bettors have netted +$7 win or lose per wager backing him. Backing Roger is worth a shot at a 1% stake. However, as is the case with Djokovic – this is a parlay only recommendation as the price is too high to bet on it’s own.

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Querrey/Nadal

Head to Head History:

Match Up Preview:

Nadal has straight set wins in this tournament over Joao Sousa, Jo Tsonga and Yuchi Sugita, the only set he dropped was against the controversial Nick Kyrgios in the second round. Nadal is 6-0 at Wimbledon in the quarterfinals. Nadal has won 12 straight matches, including the French Open finals and the Rome Masters. This is Sam Querrey’s first grand slam quarter final since the 2017 US Open. Nadal won the first four matches between the pair from 2006 to 2016, although most recently Querrey won a title deciding clash in Acapulco in 2017, that win ended Nadal’s 16 match winning streak vs Americans.
Since the Acapulco match in 2017, Nadal has gone 8-0 vs American opponent and hopes to continue the run by overcoming Sam Querrey to keep the streak alive.

Betting Trends:

2019:
S. Querrey: 16-8, -1.01u
R. Nadal: 36-5, -1.41u

Favorites in 2018 finished 97-29, +2.3u, an ROI of +0.05% per wager and $100 bettors netted +$2 per bet win or lose. Favorites in 2019 are currently: 87-29, -3.45u, so expect some regression towards the favorites in the final 7 matches of the tournament.

Backing Nadal here is worth a 1% stake, however at the current price it is to high to take on it’s own, a parlay anchor or pass.

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Wimbledon

ATP
1.77% – G. Pella +398

*ADDED PLAY*

Wimbledon
1% – N. Djokovic, R. Federer, R. Nadal, S. Williams (Parlay) -144



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