The 2019 Wimbledon round of 16 kicks off this morning at the All England Club.
Get your Pimms and your strawberry ice cream, sit back and enjoy the most prestigious tennis tournament in the world.
If you feel like having a wager on the event, here is some key info for you for the Round of 16!
Short Favorites on the Women’s side.
On the WTA side. Favorites of -143 or better are currently: 10-4, +3.54u. $100 bettors are netting +$24 per wager win or lose. With an ROI of +0.59% per bet, any favorite on the WTA side -143 or better is worth about a 1.6% stake in my opinion going forward.
Something to consider however is that last year Underdogs vs favorites of -143 or better faired very well at Wimbledon. 14-10, +4.68u
So be aware of regression. A 1.6% stake is a conservative stake.
Konta beat her.
This morning at Wimbledon, Johanna Konta takes on Petra Kvitova.
Konta is 35-11 so far in 2019.
Kvitova is 31-7 this year.
Konta has profited +9.47u with an ROI of +0.51% per wager.
Kvitova has profited +6.32u, with an ROI of +0.42% per wager.
Johanna Konta in a dog spot is the +EV play here.
Worth a shot at 1.3%
Ashes to Ashes.
Also this morning at Wimbledon. Defending WTA French Open Champion Ash Barty is a heavy favorite against the unseeded American Allison Riske. Riske has split time between the WTA tour and the ITF tour. She is 21-13 so far in 2019, with an ROI of +0.32% per wager.
However, on the other side of the net – Ash Barty has won 86% of her matches in 2019, going 39-6, +7.42u with an ROI of +0.41% per wager.
Even at the monster favorite price. Barty is the +EV play here. Tying Barty in a ML favorite parlay is worth a shot at just over a 1% stake.
Someone let the dogs out.
This year at the WTA Wimbledon Open.
Backing underdogs has not been a profitable venture. The underdog has gone 31-78, -13.08u so far in 2019.
However, there may be some regression from the mean about to occur.
At last year’s WTA Wimbledon. Backing the underdog was profitable, going 45-82, +15.24u on the WTA side. Considering this year’s underdog record is only 4 losses shy of the overall record in 2018 – I sense we could see some upsets in the rounds to come.
Backing the underdog from here on out is worth a 1% stake.
Has Roger met his match ??
On the ATP side this morning. The 8 time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer takes on the surging Matteo Berrettini.
Federer’s season has been superb so far. Winning 90% of his matches, going 38-4, +2.73u in 2019. $100 bettors backing Federer this year have netted +$7 per wager win or lose, an ROI of +0.16% per bet.
However, on the opposite end of the court – Matteo Berrettini is having the season of a life time.
Berrettini has won 73% of his matches in 2019, going 34-12, +12.19u, $100 bettors backing Berrettini have netted +$27 per wager win or lose, an ROI of +0.66% per bet.
Although it may be a hard pill to swallow. Fading Federer may be the play here. Matteo Berrettini has played only 4 matches more than Roger and is over 10u’s more profitable than him.
That is the definition of +EV.
Take Berrettini at a 1.65% stake.
Favorites could dance.
As for the rest of the ATP side, it is some what of a mixed bag of results.
Favorites have won 74% of the matches so far (80-28), however they are unprofitable sitting at -3.41u so far.
However, like the WTA side concerning underdogs – it seems there may be some regression here when comparing to last year’s results.
Last year favorites won at a 77% clip, finishing 97-29, +2.3u profit. An ROI of +0.05% per wager win or lose.
Considering there are no favorites higher than -300 today, combining a bunch of favorites into a money line parlay at a 1% stake – may not be the worst idea in the world.
1.03% – A. Barty, M. Raonic, K. Nishikor, N. Djokovic, R. Nadal, S. Querrey (Parlay) -110
1.03% – A. Barty, D. Goffin, R. Bautista-Agut (Parlay) -124
1.58% – E. Mertens -138
1.58% – E. Svitolina -108
1.29% – J. Konta +166
1% – C. Suarez Navarro +513
1% – K. Muchova +513
1% – S. Zhang +154
1% – C. Gauff +398
1.66% – M. Berrettini +646
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