Adriano Moraes vs Demetrious Johnson – Best Bets: Additional odds have been posted for Wednesday night’s ONE Championship Men’s MMA Flyweight title fight between the current champ Adriano Moraes, and the former UFC flyweight champion Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson.
DJ comes in as a heavy favorite, but is lined at an affordable -105 ‘to Win by Decision’ and +110 to win ‘Inside the Distance’. Meanwhile, the current champion Adriano Moraes is as high as a +500 underdog, lined at 7-1 odds to get the stoppage victory, and +900 to ‘Win by Decision’. Let’s take a look at the best bets for this Wednesday night’s ONE on TNT main event.
Demetrious Johnson vs Adriano Moraes Odds
| One on TNT 1 | Demetrious Johnson | Adriano Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| to Win Outright | -900 | +465 |
| Inside the Distance | +110 | +700 |
| to Win by Decision | -105 | +900 |
| Total Rounds | Over 4.5 (-130) | Under 4.5 (-103) |
| Where/When | Singapore Indoor Stadium | Wed, April 7th | 10:00 PM ET |
The event takes place on Wednesday night in North American, and at 10 AM local time Thursday morning in Singapore. It can be viewed live on TNT, or on the ‘ONE Super App’, with the preliminary bouts starting at 8:30 PM ET, and the main event starting at 10:00 PM ET. For full broadcast details, visit the ONE Championship website.
Tale of the Tape: Johnson vs Moraes
| ONE Men’s Flyweight | Demetrious Johnson | Adriano Moraes |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 30-3-1 | 18-3 |
| Finish Rate | 57% (12 Wins by Submission) | 67% (9 Wins by Submission) |
| Age | 34 | 31 |
| Height | 5’3 | 5’8 |
| Reach | 66′ | N/A |
Unlike many other promotions, the ONE Championship Flyweight division is set at 135lbs, which would be the bantamweight weight class in many other promotions, including the UFC and Bellator.
Over the last two years, there have been 28 bouts in the ONE Men’s Flyweight division with odds posted; of those 28 fights, 20 of them have been won by the betting favorite. However, even with a 20-8 record, the favorite has failed to turn a profit. Meanwhile, the total has been posted in 20 bouts in this division over the past two years, with the result going a perfect 10-10, with both sides failing to turn a profit.
ONE FC Men’s Flyweight Divsion: Betting Trends
| Since 2019 | Record | Win % | Profit (Units) | Buy Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorite | 20-8 | 71.4% | -1.86u | -250 |
| Under | 10-10 | 50% | -2.93u | +100 |
Moraes has gone beyond the betting total of 3 of his last four fights, with the Over going 3-1 for +1.47 units profit, dating back to 2017. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Over’ in each of Moraes’ last four fights has profited +$36 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, in that same stretch, Moraes is 3-1 on the moneyline, profiting a marginal +0.21u profit.
Adriano Moraes: Betting Trends
| Since 2017: ONE Championship | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 3-1 | +1.47u |
| to Win Outright | 3-1 | +0.21u |
In his last 17 professional MMA fights, dating back to his rematch victory over Ian McCall, Demetrious Johnson has gone 16-1, turning a moneyline profit of +5.27 units. An ROI of +31%, with a $100 bettor profiting +$31 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, Johnson has gone Over the betting total in 12 of his previous 17 fights, going 12-5 for +5.22 units profit.
Johnson has gone Over the betting total in 6 of his last seven bouts, dating back to his decision victory over Tim Elliot in 2016. He has gone to decision in 3 of his previous four bouts, dating back to his split decision loss to Henry Cejudo back in 2018.
Bettors who have backed both the Over and the ‘Mighty Mouse’ moneyline in his last 17 fights have gone 28-6, profiting +10.49 units profit.
Demetrious Johnson: Betting Trends
| Since 2012: UFC/ONE Championship | Record | Profit (Units) |
|---|---|---|
| to Win Outright | 16-1 | +5.27u |
| Over | 12-5 | +5.22u |
Adriano Moraes vs Demetrious Johnson: Best Bets
Demetrious Johnson comes into Wednesday’s main event having gone to decision in 7 of his last 14 fights, picking up the victory on the judge’s scorecards in 6 of those 7 decisions, with the only loss being his UFC Flyweight Championship loss to Henry Cejudo.
As for Adriano Moraes, all 3 of his losses in his MMA career have come via split decision, this is a fighter who has never been stoppage, and has never lost by unanimous decision. Between both ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson and ‘Mikinho’ seven of their previous eight fights combined have gone ‘Over’ the betting total, with 6 of those 8 going the distance.
The ‘fight goes the distance’ prop is lined at -130, which is the most likely path to victory for the heavy favorite Demetrious Johnson. Meanwhile, it seems like the path to victory for Moraes is a narrow space in the early rounds of this fight. It’s classic MMA betting scenario where the ‘Over’ correlates with one fighter winning, while the ‘Under’ correlates with their opponent winning. In this case, it seems rather unlikely that Moraes will be able to keep up with ‘Mighty Mouse’ for a full 25 minutes, there is still a path to victory for him that sees him getting a submission victory in the early rounds. However, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor the savvy veteran in Johnson.
It’s been awfully tough pinpointing the best way to bet this fight, but a combination of wagering 2.1 units on Johnson on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at -105 (via 1XBet), and 0.4 units on Moreas on the moneyline seem like the best way to go. You set yourself up for a 1.5 unit profit if Johnson is able to get the decision victory, while you can save your wager on the Moraes moneyline, that can be found at some places at odds as high as +500.
Apart from picking an outright winner, the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop at -130 seems like the most probable outcome, and is worth a full unit stake.
AlMac’s Best Bets
| Stake | Wager | Odds | Sportsbook |
| 5.25% (2.1u) | Johnson by Decision | -105 | 1XBet |
| 1.05% (0.42u) | Moraes to Win Outright | +500 | Pinnacle |
| 2.5% (1u) | Fight Goes Distance | -130 | 1XBet |
AlMac's 2021 MMA Record: 118-133, +4.4 units
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