Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Prediction | UFC 263 Odds: Flyweight champ Figueiredo has 7 stoppage victories to his name, profiting for +10.4 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop since his 2017 UFC debut. He looks to make it 8 on Saturday against Brandon Moreno in a rematch of their five round epic battle from last year.
The two flyweights fought to a five-round draw back at UFC 256, after Figureido was deducted a point due to a low blow early in the contest. Figueiredo was not 100% in their first meeting, with reports coming out after the bout that he was rushed to the hospital the night before the fight due to a stomach virus caused by rehydration after weigh-ins. The fight was runner-up for ‘Fight of the Year’ and was regarded as ‘the greatest UFC men’s flyweight fight of all time’ by UFC President Dana White.
⇢ More: UFC 263 Odds
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Odds
|UFC 263 Odds||Deiveson Figueiredo||Brandon Moreno|
|to Win Outright||-192||+177|
|Inside the Distance||+105||+550|
|to Win by Decision||+335||+305|
|Total Rounds||Over 4.5 (+117)||Under 4.5 (-132)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+120)||No (-150)|
|Where/When||Glendale, Arizona||Sat June 12th | 10:00 PM ET|
Deiveson Figueiredo comes in as the -192 favorite, with Brandon Moreno lined at +177 on the return. Figueiredo is lined at +130 to win ‘Inside the Distance,’ a prop that has been steamed all week heavily, having been bet down from +210 to where it is now.
Brandon Moreno is at long-shot odds of +550 to defeat Figueiredo by stoppage and at +305 to win by Decision. The ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop has also been steamed heavily throughout fight week, with the ‘No’ prop moving from plus-money last Saturday to currently sitting as high as -140.
Figueiredo vs Moreno: Line Movement
Deiveson Figueiredo opened as a -275 favorite before the fight was announced, immediately following the last year’s initial meeting. When the fight was officially announced back in March of this year, the market came in on the Moreno side, pushing Figueiredo down to the range of -250. The market was relatively calm from that point until fight week. The narrative of Figueiredo’s issues with cutting weight came to fruition on Friday afternoon, as the champion took all but 40 seconds to get himself down to 125lbs, narrowly making the two-hour weigh-in time limit. With that, support has come in heavily on Moreno, pushing him to as low as +175, with Figueiredo sitting as short as -190 at some sportsbooks.
Deiveson Figueiredo comes in with just one loss in his professional MMA career, with an 85% finish rate and 9 wins by T/KO. He gives up two inches of height and and reach to his opponent Brandon Moreno, who managed to use his size advantage relatively well in their first meeting. Figueiredo is 33 years old, six years older than the 27 year old Moreno.
Tale of the Tape: Figueiredo vs Moreno
|UFC Men’s Flyweight||Deiveson Figueiredo||Brandon Moreno|
|Record||20-1-1 (9-1-1 UFC)||18-5-2 (6-2-1 UFC)|
|Finish Rate||85% (9 Wins by T/KO)||65% (9 Wins by Submission)|
UFC Men’s Flyweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy/Fade|
Coming into UFC 263, the favorite in the Men’s Flyweight division has dominated over the last year and a half, having won 29 of the last 38 fights at men’s 125lbs, going 29-8-1 on the moneyline for +8.94 units profit, dating back to January of 2020.
Brandon Moreno has won 3 of his 10 UFC appearances by way of stoppage, going 3-7 for +13.2 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Moreno’s won 7 of his last 11 octagon appearances, including his LFA title fight back in 2019, before returning to the UFC. Moreno has gone the distance in 7 of his 10 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +4.4 units on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop.
Brandon Moreno: Betting Trends
|Since 2016 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Inside the Distance||3-7||+13.2u|
|to Win Fight (Including LFA)||7-2-2||+4.61u|
|Fight Goes Distance||7-3||+4.4u|
|to Win by Decision||3-7||+2.25u|
Deiveson Figueiredo has won 7 of his 11 UFC appearances by way of stoppage, turning a profit of +10.38 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, and has gone 9-1-1 in his UFC career, profiting for +7.2 units on the moneyline since his 2017 UFC debut. The ‘Under’ has gone 6-5 for +4.5 units profit in his UFC career, with just 4 of his bouts going the distance.
Deiveson Figueiredo: Betting Trends
|Since 2017 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Inside the Distance||7-4||+10.38u|
|to Win Fight||9-1-1||+7.17u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||7-4||+3.13u|
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Prediction
If you are backing Deiveson Figueiredo in this one, the best way to do it was probably on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, but at the current price of +130, you’re getting little to no value for a stoppage prop against a fighter who’s never been finished. With the most recent developments involving Figueiredo barely making weight, there has been a tsunami of money that has come in on Brandon Moreno, pushing Figueiredo to as low as -192 (via 5Dimes). If you’re backing the champ in this spot, you’re better off taking the discount and staying away from any method props, as there’s no telling what path to victory ‘the God of War is going to take. There are many question marks and obstacles that Figueiredo has brought upon himself as champion, and it seems as though this might be the toughest task to date for the 33-year-old Brazillian.
If you’re backing Brandon Moreno, there’s probably a case to be made for betting the ‘Assassin Baby’ to pull off the stoppage at the price of +550. However, considering that Figueiredo himself has never been finished, you’re much better off taking the big plus moneyline rather than setting yourself up to be middled by a five-round decision. From the time this fight was announced until just a few days ago, this fight was lined unreasonably. Brandon Moreno realistically has about a 35% chance of winning this fight, which saw value on him at the price of +185 or better. Now with the most recent developments concerning Figueiredo’s condition, you might be able to make a case for betting Moreno even at the current price of +177 (via 5Dimes).
As for the betting total, while the numbers don’t necessarily agree with the market movement, it seems like a general consensus among bettors that this fight will not go the distance. When factoring in all the tangibles concerning weight-cuts, as well as fans being in attendance, you begin to understand why the oddsmakers might have had this one wrong when they put a plus sign beside the “No” on this ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, which is why the market has come in and corrected that mistake. At the current price of -125 (via WilliamHill) for this one to go ‘Under 4.5 Rounds’, you’re still managing to squeak out a bit of value on a prop that should probably be closer to -150.
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Brandon Moreno (to Win Fight)||+190||BetOnline|
|2.5% (1u)||Figueiredo/Moreno (Under 4.5 Rounds)||-125||WilliamHill|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 228-255, +13.78u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 712-635, +28.56u
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