Demetrious Johnson vs Adriano Moraes – Betting Breakdown: In each of their last four fights, Adriano Moraes and Demetrious Johnson have a combined record of 7-1 to the ‘Over’, cashing for a profit of +4.5 units. On Wednesday at ONE on TNT 1, Demetrious ‘Mighty Mouse’ Johnson attempts to win his second MMA world title when he faces Adriano Moraes for the ONE Championship Flyweight (135lbs) championship. Johnson comes in as the heavy -900 favorite as the challenger, with Moraes lined on the comeback at +465.
The event takes place on Wednesday night in North American, and at 10 AM local time Thursday morning in Singapore. It can be viewed live on TNT, or on the ‘ONE Super App’, with the preliminary bouts starting at 8:30 PM ET, and the main event starting at 10:00 PM ET. For full broadcast details, visit the ONE Championship website.
Demetrious Johnson vs Adriano Moraes Odds
|One on TNT 1||Demetrious Johnson||Adriano Moraes|
|to Win Outright||-900||+465|
|Inside the Distance||+110||+700|
|to Win by Decision||-105||+900|
|Total Rounds||Over 4.5 (-130)||Under 4.5 (-103)|
|Where/When||Singapore Indoor Stadium||Wed, April 7th | 10:00 PM ET|
Adriano Moraes: ‘Mikinho’ comes into his eighth ONE Championship title bout, and holds a 9-3 record in the promotion since making his debut back in 2013. After a 2-1 record, Moraes would fight for the ONE Flyweight Championship in 2014 against Geje Eustaquio, winning the title via unanimous decision. Moraes would lose the title twice in his reign as champion, regaining the belt on two separate occasions, making him the only three-time ONE Flyweight Champion in the promotion’s history.
Moraes has continued to advance his skills even after having massive success in the sport of MMA. In fact, after winning the ONE flyweight title in 2014. Moraes traveled to the United States to compete in a handful of BJJ tournaments; he won the New York BJJ Open and the 2014 NAGA No-Gi Blackbelt Division Championship. Moraes also would end up moving to American in 2015, joining American Top Team in south Florida, where he now trains with fighters like Jorge Masvidal and Pedro Munhoz.
Moraes is a high-level grappler and jiu-jitsu player but has improved significantly in his stand-up game, which was put on display in his trilogy bout against Geje Eustaquio. However, it was ultimately his ground game that stunned the crowd and the judges that night.
Moraes displayed his high-level submission skills in his trilogy title bout against Geje Eustaquio, putting him in a Suloev stretch in the 4th round, with Eustaquio miraculously escaping after almost a full minute in the hold. The Suloev stretch is a modified knee-bar, first used by Russian UFC and Pride fighter Amar Suloev.
The ‘Suloev Stretch’ is an extremely difficult hold to maneuver out of, yet someone Eustaquio managed to get out of what looked like one of the most painful submissions you will ever see in the sport of MMA.
Moraes has an elite-level ‘get up game’ and can be very dangerous in scrambles. On the mat, he has an ability to pull off sweeps and reversals in high-risk situations. This specific skill set makes him a very interesting match-up for ‘Mighty Mouse’, who is also known for being an elusive wrestler, with his ability to escape vulnerable positions with slick scrambling technique. This will make for a very entertaining match-up if the fight ends up on the ground.
Moraes will come in with a 5-inch height advantage over ‘Mighty Mouse’, which is not exactly a massive factor for Johnson, who has fought bigger opponents almost his entire career. However, there’s still something to be said about Moraes being one of the biggest men that Johnson has ever faced.
Demetrious Johnson: Johnson comes into his first title bout in ONE Championship with a 3-0 record in the promotion, after going 15-2-1 in the UFC. In his last 14 bouts in the UFC, Johnson won 7 by stoppage, six by decision, and lost his final fight in the promotion by decision. A decision loss to Henry Cejudo, it was just his second loss in the UFC in 7 years. After dropping the UFC Flyweight championship, Johnson would be traded to ONE Championship for Ben Askren.
Johnson would immediately enter the ONE Championship Flyweight Grand Prix. Johnson went 3-0 in the tournament, earning himself a title shot against Adriano Moraes.
In the first fight of the tournament, Johnson faced Yuya Wakamatsu. After a competitive first round, Johnson finished the fight 2 minutes and 40 seconds into the second round with a guillotine choke. In the second round, Johnson faced Tatsumitsu Wada, yet another competitive match-up ended with Johnson picking up the unanimous decision victory.
In his third and final fight of the tournament, Johnson faced Danny Kingad, with the winner being crowned as the winner of the ONE Championship Flyweight Grand Prix.
Johnson took a bit of damage going toe to toe with Kingad, getting dropped early in the 2nd round. However, it was Mighty Mouse’s defensive wrestling that got him through the dangerous moments of the fight, as he was able to eventually take the fight to the mat, hold dominant position for the majority of the fight, and pick up the unanimous decision.
Johnson does an excellent job at mixing up his offensive, using faints and fakes that keeps his opponent guessing. Johnson will fake the take-down attempt to draw out his opponent’s reaction and then catch his opponent with an off-rhythm shoot when he least expects it. Mighty Mouse has perfected the art of mixing his striking up with his grappling. Even if his stand-up game isn’t where it once was, he can still be a serious problem for Moraes if he manages to land the takedown throughout the fight continuously.
Tale of the Tape: Johnson vs Moraes
|ONE Men’s Flyweight||Demetrious Johnson||Adriano Moraes|
|Finish Rate||57% (12 Wins by Submission)||67% (9 Wins by Submission)|
Unlike many other promotions, the ONE Championship Flyweight division is set at 135lbs, which would be the bantamweight weight class in many other promotions, including the UFC and Bellator.
Over the last two years, there have been 28 bouts in the ONE Men’s Flyweight division with odds posted; of those 28 fights, 20 of them have been won by the betting favorite. However, even with a 20-8 record, the favorite has failed to turn a profit. Meanwhile, the total has been posted in 20 bouts in this division over the past two years, with the result going a perfect 10-10, with both sides failing to turn a profit.
ONE FC Men’s Flyweight Divsion: Betting Trends
|Since 2019||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy Price|
Moraes has gone beyond the betting total of 3 of his last four fights, with the Over going 3-1 for +1.47 units profit, dating back to 2017. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Over’ in each of Moraes’ last four fights has profited +$36 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, in that same stretch, Moraes is 3-1 on the moneyline, profiting a marginal +0.21u profit.
Adriano Moraes: Betting Trends
|Since 2017: ONE Championship||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Outright||3-1||+0.21u|
In his last 17 professional MMA fights, dating back to his rematch victory over Ian McCall, Demetrious Johnson has gone 16-1, turning a moneyline profit of +5.27 units. An ROI of +31%, with a $100 bettor profiting +$31 per fight, win or lose. Meanwhile, Johnson has gone Over the betting total in 12 of his previous 17 fights, going 12-5 for +5.22 units profit.
Johnson has gone Over the betting total in 6 of his last seven bouts, dating back to his decision victory over Tim Elliot in 2016. He has gone to decision in 3 of his previous four bouts, dating back to his split decision loss to Henry Cejudo back in 2018.
Bettors who have backed both the Over and the ‘Mighty Mouse’ moneyline in his last 17 fights have gone 28-6, profiting +10.49 units profit.
Demetrious Johnson: Betting Trends
|Since 2012: UFC/ONE Championship||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Outright||16-1||+5.27u|
For Demetrious Johnson, this will be his first five-round fight since his loss to Cejudo in 2018, while Moraes hasn’t had a fight scheduled for three rounds since his 2016 bout against Eugene Toquero. This may give a slight advantage to Moraes, as Johnson has come out with a relatively high pace in his first three fights in ONE Championship and will have to adjust to a more conservative pace in this fight while facing a fighter in Moraes who can go at it with the pedal to the floor for a full five rounds.
Both fighters are coming off lengthy layoffs, with Moraes not having stepped into the cage since January of 2019, and Johnson not seeing action since October of 2019. The layoff may be a little bit taxing for both fighters, who from 2014 to 2018 managed to compete atleast two times a year.
Demetrious Johnson vs Adriano Moraes: Best Bets
When this line first came out with Mighty Mouse lined as a -400 favorite, that line swelled to as high as -950 in some places, before some buy back came in on Moraes and pushed it to where it sits now at about -790. The immediate reaction to this line movement was that this is now a ‘dog or pass’ play. However, beyond analyzing the paths to victory for both fighters, there just isn’t enough market value on Moraes pulling off the upset at the current price, when you have a chance of getting a much better line closer to fight night.
Demetrious Johnson hasn’t looked spectacular by any stretch in his three appearances in ONE Championship, but never the less, this is a fighter who is one of the pound for pound best to ever do it, and a fighter who has just 3 losses in what will be after Wednesday, a 35 fight career. So there is no denying that ‘DJ’ deserves to be the betting favorite, but to what point do you start to look at these odds and see clear value on Moraes, regardless of how you have this fight handicapped. It hasn’t gotten to that point just yet, but when it does, regardless of how you think this fight is going to play out, if the betting odds are giving Moraes less of a chance than what any educated person will tell you he actually has, then the wager is worth making, whether your bet wins or not.
It’s also worth mentioning that all three of Moraes’ losses came by split decision, with two of those three losses being labeled as robberies. This is a fighter who has never lost by stoppage, or by unanimous decision, and if you consider his only three losses were on split scorecards, there is some who can argue that Adrian Moraes should still be undefeated. With that in mind, don’t be surprised to see this one ending up as a close decision, which ultimately should favor the savvy ‘Mighty Mouse’
The underdog backers who have handicapped Moraes to win, should take what they can get on a fighter who has never been an underdog in his career period, let alone a dog of +450. At the same time, if you’re coming at this from a value betting perspective, and if you’re trying to get the best price on Moraes, all signs are pointing to this line getting juicier and juicier as we get closer to Wednesday night.
If you’re approaching this fight looking for a way to back Demetrious Johnson, then the best way to do so is on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at -105. Meanwhile, with the ‘Over’ sitting at 4.5 rounds with a -130 price tag, considering both of these fighters have been trending to the Over in their recent careers, it seems to be the right play to make.
If you want to get fancy, you can make a 2 unit bet on Demetrious to win by decision, and then wager 0.4 units on Moraes to win outright at +500, setting yourself up for either +1.5 units profit, or winning your money back. You can cover your Mighty Mouse wager with even smaller stakes if you decide to take the Moraes ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +700, but then you leave yourself open to get middle’d if Mukinho ends up taking the decision victory.
It all goes down Wednesday night on the ONE Championship youtube channel, and on TNT. Be sure to stay tuned for more coverage of ONE Championship on TNT in the coming days.