Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Prediction | UFC 263 Odds: Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori have gone the distance in 14 of their combined 19 octagon appearances, combining for a total of 10 decision wins in their respective UFC careers. The two square off in a rematch in Glendale on Saturday, this time for the UFC Middleweight gold.
Israel Adesanya is coming off his first-ever MMA loss, losing his chance at becoming a double-champion at the hands of a decision win by Jan Blachowicz back at UFC 259 earlier this year. Marvin Vettori is coming off a dominant decision victory over Kevin Holland back at UFC on ABC 2 in early April and hasn’t lost a fight since the decision loss to Adesanya back in 2018.
⇢ More: UFC 263 Odds
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Odds
|UFC 263 Odds||Israel Adesanya||Marvin Vettori|
|to Win Outright||-260||+220|
|Inside the Distance||+170||+550|
|to Win by Decision||+160||+405|
|Total Rounds||Over 4.5 (-135)||Under 4.5 (+115)|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (-130)||No (+100)|
|Where/When||Glendale, Arizona||Sat June 12th | 10:00 PM ET|
Israel Adesanya comes in as the -260 betting favorite over Marvin Vettori, who comes back as the +220 underdog. The Nigerian born kiwi Adesanya is lined at +160 to win the fight once again by the judge’s scorecards, while Vettori is a hefty +405 to get the judge’s nod in the rematch.
In their previous metting, Adesanya was a similarly priced favorite at -235, with Vettori as the +210 dog. Adesanya managed to cash at +450 to win the fight by decision, with the ‘Over 1.5 Rounds’ prop coming in at -160.
Adesanya vs Vettori: Line Movement
Adesanya opened as a heavy -290 favorite but saw an immediate correction, moving closer to the range of -230, with Vettori at +200. Since then, Adesanya has taken a steady stream of money and has moved back and forth between -270 and -250, with Vettori at +215, depending on what book you’re looking at.
Israel Adesanya is 20-1 as a professional, with 15 wins by T/KO, while his opponent Vettori holds a 17-3-1 professional record, with 9 wins by submission. Adesanya will come in with a 4 inch height and 6 inch reach advantage over Vettori, and is four years his senior at 31 years old.
Tale of the Tape: Adesanya vs Vettori
|UFC Middleweight||Israel Adesanya||Marvin Vettori|
|Record||20-1 (9-1 UFC)||17-3-1 (7-2-1 UFC)|
|Finish Rate||75% (15 Wins by T/KO)||65% (9 Wins by Submission)|
UFC Betting Trends: Middleweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy/Fade|
The favorite in the UFC Middleweight division has cashed at a 64.4% rate since the start of 2020, winning 47 of the 73 bouts at 185lbs. Despite failing to turn a profit, there has been market value on the favorite at middleweight at the buy price of -181 or better. Meanwhile, the betting total in the UFC middleweight division has split almost exactly down the middle, with the ‘Over’ going 37-36 since the start of 2020.
The most profitable way to back Marvin Vettori in his UFC career has been on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, with Vettori going to the judge’s scorecards in 8 of his 10 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +6.67 units on the distance prop in that stretch. Vettori has won 5 of his 10 UFC fights by decision, going 5-5 for +4.61 units on the decision prop, with the ‘Over’ going 8-2 for +3.74 units since his 2016 UFC debut.
Marvin Vettori: Betting Trends
|Since 2016 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Fight Goes Distance||8-2||+6.67u|
|to Win by Decision||5-5||+4.61u|
|to Win Fight||7-2-1||+1.53u|
The most profitable way to back Israel Adesanya in his UFC career has been on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, winning 5 of his 10 octagon appearances by way of the judge’s scorecards, turning a profit of +10.65 units. Since his 2018 UFC debut, Adesanya has gone the distance in 6 of his 10 UFC fights, turning a profit of +4 units on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop. Adesanya has won 9 of his 10 octagon appearances, averaging as higher than a -200 favorite in each of those 10 fights.
Israel Adesanya: Betting Trends
|Since 2018 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win by Decision||5-5||+10.65u|
|Fight Goes Distance||6-4||+4.01u|
|to Win Fight||9-1||+3.72u|
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori Prediction
Israel Adesanya and Marvin Vettori have combined for 10 decision wins in their respective UFC careers, profiting for a total of 15.26 units between the two of them on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. In their combined 19 UFC appearances, only 6 fights have failed to go the distance. At the current price of -125 (via WilliamHill) on the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop, you’re getting a reasonable price for a fight that may be slow-paced and uneventful for the opening rounds, which has been the case for many of Adesanya’s title fights.
The path to victory for Marvin Vettori in this fight is very clear and obvious. He needs to take Israel Adesanya down. In their first meeting, Vettori spent the first two rounds of the fight going toe to toe with Adesanya, which ultimately cost him the fight, losing two rounds to one. Adesanya will need to avoid getting taken down in the middle of the octagon, so it will be best for him to stay on the inner part of the cage, within the two black lines.
For Adesanya, it seems that his goal is to finish Vettori in the lead-up to this fight. However, it may be more realistic for the middleweight champ to keep the pace down, stay on the outside of Vettori’s shooting range, and evade the Italian challenger as much as he can. We have seen Adesanya take the conservative route before, going the full five rounds against Yoel Romero back at UFC 248 in a fight that was quickly forgotten.
If you are going to back Israel Adesanya, the most logical way to do so would be on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop at +160 (via 5Dimes). The only problem is that at the price of +160, you just simply aren’t getting enough value; especially considering that Adesanya has never been lined at such a short price to win a fight on the scorecards, with the shortest price before this being a +175 decision prop against Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236.
Adesanya was lined at an even shorter price of +140 ‘to Win by Decision when this fight first opened,’ with the Adesanya ‘Inside the Distance’ prop at +190. Since then, the ‘ITD’ prop has taken some serious money, moving down to +165 at some books, a slightly higher return than the ‘by Decision’ prop. If you were going to take Adesanya by decision, you would need the market to come in even heavier on the ‘ITD’ prop, in hopes of being able to get a price closer to that +190 range the ‘ITD’ prop opened at, but that’s likely not going to happen.
Beyond that, there is little to no value in betting Israel Adesanya in this match-up. When the market opened at the moneyline price of -235, you could have made a case for the kiwi to retain the title, even at a 70% implied probability. However, anything beyond that price, you have to go the other way. We’ve already seen Marvin Vettori go 15 minutes against Adesanya and managed a split decision winning two rounds on one judge’s scorecards. Vettori has improved drastically since that 2018 meeting, and if he implements an intelligent game plan and leaves his emotions out of the fight, he has a much better chance than the current odds indicate. Take a small shot on Marvin Vettori at +226 (via SportBet).
AlMac’s Best Bets
|2.5% (1u)||Adesanya/Vettori (Fight Goes Distance)||-125||WilliamHill|
|1% (0.4u)||Marvin Vettori (to Win Fight)||+226||SportBet|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 228-255, +13.78u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 712-635, +28.56u
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