Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Predictions: UFC 261 Odds

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Predictions – UFC 261 Odds: Kamaru Usman has won 9 of his 13 UFC bouts by decision, cashing for +9 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop in his UFC career. However, Usman has had three title defenses in his reign as champion, and has stoppage victories in 2 of those 3 title bouts. Usman will try to make up for what he called a poor performance against Jorge Masvidal back at UFC 251 in July of last year, as he promises to win by stoppage over ‘Gamebred’ in their rematch at UFC 261 on Saturday, April 24th in Jacksonville.

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Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Odds

UFC 261Kamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal
to Win Outright-400+308
Inside the Distance+190+400
to Win by Decision+100+1300
Fight Goes DistanceYes (-149)No (+100)
Where/WhenVyStar Veterans Memorial ArenaSat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET

Odds via 1XBet

The first fight between UFC Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal went down last July at UFC 251 on Fight Island, and the sequel could not be any more different than what we witnessed last summer. Last year’s fight took place behind closed doors in the ominous Flash Forum in Abu-Dhabi. Fast forward nine months to the rematch, and we see the UFC taking their show on the road and welcoming in over 18,000 fans to the VyStar Veteran Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. As for the betting odds, Kamaru Usman comes in as an even heavier betting favorite than he did in the first meeting.

Usman is lined as a -400 favorite, quite a contrast to the -230 price he was lined at last year. Meanwhile, the betting total has taken a bit of a flip from July 2020 to April 2021. Usman and Masvidal are favored to go to the judges in this fight at UFC 261, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop lined at -149, another stark contrast to last year’s bout, which was the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop lined at the plus-money price of +120.

Tale of the Tape: Usman vs Masvidal

UFC WelterweightsKamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal
Record18-135-14
Finish Rate50% (8 Wins by T/KO)52% (16 Wins by T/KO)
Age3336
Height6’05’11
Reach77.5″73″

Coming into UFC 261, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at a 66.7% rate, going 48-24 for +12.4 units profit since the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, the ‘Over’ at the price of -200 or better over the last 16 months has been a +EV play to make. Meanwhile, the betting favorite in the 170lbs division has also cashed at a 66% rate since the start of 2020, going 47-24-1. Even though the chalk side has only turned a profit of just +0.07 units, there has been value on the betting favorite, based on implied probability at -196 or higher.

UFC Welterweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite16-769.6%+4.81u‘Coin Flip’
Over48-2466.7%+12.4u-200
Favorites47-24-166.2%+0.07u-196

Jorge Masvidal has won 7 of his 19 UFC bouts by way of stoppage, going 7-12 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop for +5.28 units, dating back to his 2013 UFC debut. Jorge has a 12-7 record in the UFC, profiting for +3.11 units on the moneyline in his career in the octagon. Interestingly enough, one of the most profitable betting trends to back in Jorge Masvidal fights has been on his opponents ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, which has gone 7-12 for +2.06 units in Jorge’s eight-year UFC career.

Jorge Masvidal: Betting Trends

Since 2013 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win Inside the Distance7-12+5.28u
to Win Outright12-7+3.11u
Opponent to Win by Decision7-12+2.06u
Fight Goes Distance12-7+1.31u
Over13-6+1.02u

Kamaru Usman has won 9 of his 13 UFC bouts by way of decision, profiting for +9 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. Usman is undefeated in the UFC with a 13-0 record and has profited for +6.26 units on the moneyline since his UFC debut back in 2015. Usman has stoppage victories in 4 of his 13 fights in the UFC, including 2 of his 3 title defenses. Usman has gone 4-9 on the ‘to Win Inside the Distance’ prop, profiting for +2.73 units.

Kamaru Usman: Betting Trends

Since 2015 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win by Decision9-4+9u
to Win Outright13-0+6.26u
Fight Goes Distance9-4+4.14u
Over10-3+3.69u
to Win Inside the Distance4-9+2.73u

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Predictions

Based on the betting trends between both these fights, the most probable outcome looks to be Kamaru Usman picking up the victory via decision. However, Usman has already promised a stoppage victory over ‘Gamebred’, something that no UFC fighter has been able to do in Masvidal’s 19 fight UFC career. Usman and Masvidal have gone the distance in 20 of their combined 31 UFC bouts.

The way this fight breaks down is pretty simple. Masvidal is going to have to do some impactful damage on Usman at the beginning of every round, otherwise, Usman is going to smother and lay in on his overwhelming ground and pound for the majority of the fight. Usman is too smart of a fighter to stand and bang with Jorge, especially after feeling his power in the first fight. Masvidal will have a very small window at the beginning of each round, if he’s not able to take advantage of the fight starting on the feet then it’s Usman’s fight to win.

The question then becomes, can Usman get the stoppage over Jorge? After seeing what Usman was able to do to Gilbert Burns at UFC 258, it would not be overly surprising to see Usman take Masvidal out with some devastating ground and pound. However, what would be surprising is to see Usman be able to knock Masvidal out in the stand-up, as Jorge has made a name for himself as one of the best boxers in the UFC, which would make a knock out victory, even more of a legacy win for Kamaru Usman, as he goes for 14 straight wins in the octagon.

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