Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Prediction | UFC 263 Odds: Leon Edwards is 10-2 (1 NC) in the UFC and is riding an 8 fight winning streak into the highest-profile fight of his career at UFC 263, as he faces UFC legend Nate Diaz. Diaz is 15-10 in his UFC career but is 4-4 in his last 8 fights.
Edwards is a heavy (-435) favorite to defeat Diaz and is arguably just one win away from his rightful and long-overdue shot at the UFC Welterweight gold.
⇢ More: UFC Betting Trends
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Odds
|UFC 263||Leon Edwards||Nate Diaz|
|to Win Outright||-435||+332|
|Fight Reaches Round 5||Yes (-152)||No (+116)|
|Where/When||Glendale, Arizona||Sat June 12th | 10:00 PM ET|
Leon Edwards opened as a -275 favorite when the fight was announced back in March, buit but has taken a ton of money and is currently sitting at an average line of -449. As for Diaz, he opened as a surprising price of +220, and has since swelled to the current price of +334.
Edwards vs Diaz: Line Movement
Leon Edwards is 29 years old and is 7 years younger than Nate Diaz, at 36. Diaz will hold a 2-inch reach advantage over Edwards, despite Edwards standing two inches taller. As far as fight experience goes, Diaz has the apparent edge in that category and has 14 wins by stoppage to his name, including 11 by submission. Meanwhile, Leon Edwards holds 9 wins by stoppage in his UFC career, with 6 by T/KO.
Tale of the Tape: Edwards vs Diaz
|UFC Lightweight||Leon Edwards||Nate Diaz|
|Finish Rate||50% (6 Wins by T/KO)||80% (11 Wins by Submission)|
Edwards has won 7 of his 13 UFC appearances by way of the judge’s scorecards, with the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop turning a profit of +10.1 units in his 7-year UFC career. Edwards has gone ‘Over’ the betting total in all but two of his fights, with one of them being a ‘no contest.’ A $100 bettor who backed the ‘Over’ in every one of Edwards’ UFC appearances has gone 11-1-1 for +$607 profit. As far as an outright winner, ‘Rocky’ Edwards is 10-2 in the UFC and has turned a profit of +5.66 units on the moneyline, dating back to his 2014 octagon debut.
Leon Edwards: Betting Trends
|Since 2014 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win by Decision||7-5-1||+10.1u|
|to Win Fight||10-2-1||+5.66u|
|Fight Goes Distance||9-3-1||+5.38u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||3-9-1||+0.52u|
The most profitable way to bet on a Nate Diaz fight over his last 8 appearances has been by betting on his opponent to win ‘Inside the Distance.’ Thanks to Josh Thompson and Jorge Masvidal, a $100 bettor who has backed every opponent of Nate Diaz to win ‘Inside the Distance,’ has gone 2-6 for +$705 profit. Apart from that, Diaz has 2 wins by decision in that stretch, going 2-6 for +5.4 units profit on ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. From his loss to Josh Thompson to his most recent loss to Jorge Masvidal, Diaz has gone 4-4 over the last 8 years, turning a profit of +5.24 units on the moneyline.
Nate Diaz: Betting Trends
|Since 2013||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||2-6||+7.05u|
|to Win by Decision||2-6||+5.4u|
|to Win Fight||4-4||+5.24u|
|Opponent by Decision||2-6||+2.92u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||2-6||+2.07u|
|Fight Goes Distance: Yes||4-4||+1.1u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||4-4||+0.93u|
Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Prediction
Before breaking down this fight, it’s important to mention that this will be the very fight 5-round non-title co-main event in UFC history. With that, you have to give a bit of an edge in the later rounds to Diaz. As he has been known to out-volume his opponents and turns the tide in the championship rounds of the handful of five-round fights he’s been in.
The consensus prediction here among ‘experts’ will likely be on Edwards to pick a 5-round decision victory, but when you look at the odds we currently have available, the real value looks to be on Edwards to win this fight ‘Inside the Distance.’
Currently, at 1XBet, the ‘Fight Starts Round 3: Yes’ prop is lined at a steep -152, with the ‘No’ sitting at +116 on the comeback. With this, we can assume that the betting total will be at around ‘Over 4.5 (-125)’ and ‘Under 4.5 (+105).’ If that is the case, there should be some market value on Edwards to win ‘Inside the Distance’ at what should be a line of about +125.
Edwards has had a long stretch of inactivity but managed to get himself in the octagon in early 2021 against Belal Muhammed, albeit a fight that ended early due to an accidental eye poke. However, in that brief snapshot that we saw of Edwards, it was evident that he had improved in his striking. Edwards was already highly touted in the upper rankings of the welterweight division, but with the extended time off and the numerous training camps for fights that had fallen through, Edwards may have doubled down on his skill level and could be the next best challenger to Kamaru Usman and 170lbs gold.
As for Nate Diaz, we last saw him face a high-level striker in Jorge Masvidal back in November of 2019, in a heavily one-sided fight. In Nate’s defense, the fight was stopped prematurely due to a squeamish NYSAC doctor and probably would have went on if it took place in almost any other location. However, apart from Diaz having the long-shot chance of turning the tide in the later rounds, Jorge was having his way with Diaz, piecing him up in the stand-up, and dropping him numerous times.
MMA math does not work, and styles make fights and ultimately dictate the way we handicap them. However, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal do have similar weapons in their arsenal, and if Edwards can catch Diaz with one of those step-in elbows, you can be assured that he will be much more assertive against Diaz if he finds himself with a chance to finish the fight.
If the betting market expects this one to go the full 25-minutes, that expectation may be based more on perception rather than reality. Diaz is 36 years old and has been in more wars than most MMA fans can even remember. While we would all love to see an Edwards/Diaz 5-round battle for the ages, it seems that based on the current betting odds that the value will be on the fight not going the distance, and Edwards finding a path to put Diaz away.
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