UFC 261 Betting Trends

UFC 261 Betting Trends | UFC Picks: So far in 2021 the betting favorite mas managed to cash at a 65.1% rate in the UFC, with the chalk side winning 95 of the first 143 fights this year, but has failed to turn a profit of -4.6 units. The ‘Coin Flip’ favorite has gotten the upper hand in 23 of the 43 fights this year with a favorite lined at -150 or better. However, either side has managed to turn a profit, with both sides in the negative. Let’s take a look at the best UFC betting trends for this Saturday’s UFC 261.

2021 UFC Betting Trends

Since 2021RecordWin %Profit
Favorites95-51-365.1%-4.6u
Dogs51-95-334.9%-8.8u
Over96-51-265.3%+10.8u
Under51-96-234.7%-36.4u
Fight Goes Distance80-67-254.4%+9.8u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance67-80-245.6%-20.8u
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite23-19-154.8%-1.1u
‘Coin Flip’ Dogs19-23-145.2%-2.56u
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UFC Welterweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite16-769.6%+4.81u‘Coin Flip’
Over48-2466.7%+12.4u-200
Favorites47-24-166.2%+0.07u-196

Coming into UFC 261, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at a 66.7% rate, going 48-24 for +12.4 units profit since the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, the ‘Over’ at the price of -200 or better over the last 16 months has been a +EV play to make. Meanwhile, the betting favorite in the 170lbs division has also cashed at a 66% rate since the start of 2020, going 47-24-1. Even though the chalk side has only turned a profit of just +0.07 units, there has been value on the betting favorite, based on implied probability at -196 or higher.

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UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Dog5-271%+3.33u‘Coin Flip’
Over23-1167.6%-2.71u-209
Favorites22-1264.7%-3.67u-183

Coming into this weekend’s event, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has cashed in 23 of the last 34 UFC bouts dating back to the start of 2020. While the ‘Over’ has failed to turn a profit at -2.71 units, there is betting value on this prop, based on the betting trend, at -209 or better, or by fading it at +209 or better. The betting favorite has cashed at a 64.7% rate since the start of 2020, going 22-12, but has also failed to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, the favorite has value in this division at -183 or better and has fading value at +183 or better.

UFC Women’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Dogs16-25-139%+9.1u+156
Under16-2638.1%+3.02u+162

Since the start of 2020 the underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has turned massive profits, going 16-25-1 for +9.1 units. Based on the betting trend, any underdog in this division at the price of +156 or better has been a +EV to make long term. Meanwhile, the ‘Under’ has also been a profitable prop to back in this division, with 16 of the last 42 bouts at women’s 125lbs having gone ‘Under’ the betting total, turning a profit of +3.02 units in that stretch.

UFC Middleweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Under32-3051.6%+2.93u-107
Favorites42-2067.7%+0.78u-210

Coming into UFC 261, the ‘Under’ in the UFC Middleweight division has cashed at a 51.6% rate since the start of 2020, going 32-30 for +2.93 units profit. Based on the betting trend, any ‘Under’ at the price of -107 or better over the last 16 months has been a +EV wager to make in this division. Meanwhile, the betting favorite in the UFC 185lbs division has cashed at a 67.7% rate since the start of last year, going 42-20 for +0.78 untis profit.

UFC Light Heavyweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Over25-21-154.3%-0.33u-119
Favorites29-1664.4%-0.94u-181

The ‘Over’ in the UFC Light Heavyweight has cashed at a 54.3% rate since the start of last year, going 25-21, but failing to turn a profit. While the favorite in the 205lbs division has won 29 of the last 45 bouts in this division dating back to the start of 2020. Based on the betting trends, there has been value fading the betting favorite in this division at the price of +181 or better.

UFC Men’s Featherweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Over52-2072.2%+18.03u-260
Favorites46-25-164.8%-3.79u-184

Coming into UFC 261, the ‘Over’ has cashed at a 72.2% rate in the UFC Men’s Featherweight division dating back to the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, the ‘Over’ has value in this division at the price of -260 or better.

UFC Men’s Bantamweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Under35-3450.7%+12.11u-103
Favorites45-22-267.2%-0.91u-205

The Under has cashed at a 50.7% rate in the UFC Men’s Bantaweight division stinace the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, there has been value on the UNder in the men’s 135lbs diviison at the price of -103 or better over the lat 16 months.

UFC Lightweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
Dogs28-4240%+5.89u+150
Under32-3845.7%-0.87u+119

The Underdog in the UFC Lightweight division has turned a profit of +5.89 units on the moneyline over the last 16 months, going 28-42 since the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, there has been value on the underdog in this division at +150 or better.

UFC Men’s Flyweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite11-378.6%+5.44uCoin Flip
Favorites27-8-177.1%+7.84u-337
Over20-1655.6%-3.27u-125

The favorite has won all but 8 of the last 36 fightsi in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division, going 27-8-1 for +7.84 units profit since the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, there has been value on the favorite at flyweight in the UFC at the price of -337 or better. Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ has cashed at just a 55.6% rate over the last 16 months, failing to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, there has been value on betting the ‘Under’ in this division at the price of +125 or better.


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