UFC 261 Betting Odds and Predictions:

UFC 261 Betting Odds and Predictions: This Saturday the UFC welcomes fans to an American arena for the first time since prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, as UFC 261 goes live from Jacksonville, Florida. The event is headlined by three title fights, including the rematch between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal, for the UFC Welterweight championship.

Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Predictions – UFC 261 Odds: Kamaru Usman has won 9 of his 13 UFC bouts by decision, cashing for +9 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop in his UFC career. However, Usman has had three title defenses in his reign as champion, and has stoppage victories in 2 of those 3 title bouts. Usman will try to make up for what he called a poor performance against Jorge Masvidal back at UFC 251 in July of last year, as he promises to win by stoppage over ‘Gamebred’ in their rematch at UFC 261 on Saturday, April 24th in Jacksonville.

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Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Odds

UFC 261Kamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal
to Win Outright-400+308
Inside the Distance+190+400
to Win by Decision+100+1300
Fight Goes DistanceYes (-149)No (+100)
Where/WhenVyStar Veterans Memorial ArenaSat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET

Odds via 1XBet

The first fight between UFC Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal went down last July at UFC 251 on Fight Island, and the sequel could not be any more different than what we witnessed last summer. Last year’s fight took place behind closed doors in the ominous Flash Forum in Abu-Dhabi. Fast forward nine months to the rematch, and we see the UFC taking their show on the road and welcoming in over 18,000 fans to the VyStar Veteran Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. As for the betting odds, Kamaru Usman comes in as an even heavier betting favorite than he did in the first meeting.

Usman is lined as a -400 favorite, quite a contrast to the -230 price he was lined at last year. Meanwhile, the betting total has taken a bit of a flip from July 2020 to April 2021. Usman and Masvidal are favored to go to the judges in this fight at UFC 261, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop lined at -149, another stark contrast to last year’s bout, which was the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop lined at the plus-money price of +120.

Tale of the Tape: Usman vs Masvidal

UFC WelterweightsKamaru UsmanJorge Masvidal
Record18-135-14
Finish Rate50% (8 Wins by T/KO)52% (16 Wins by T/KO)
Age3336
Height6’05’11
Reach77.5″73″

Coming into UFC 261, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Welterweight division has cashed at a 66.7% rate, going 48-24 for +12.4 units profit since the start of 2020. Based on the betting trend, the ‘Over’ at the price of -200 or better over the last 16 months has been a +EV play to make. Meanwhile, the betting favorite in the 170lbs division has also cashed at a 66% rate since the start of 2020, going 47-24-1. Even though the chalk side has only turned a profit of just +0.07 units, there has been value on the betting favorite, based on implied probability at -196 or higher.

UFC Welterweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Favorite16-769.6%+4.81u‘Coin Flip’
Over48-2466.7%+12.4u-200
Favorites47-24-166.2%+0.07u-196

Jorge Masvidal has won 7 of his 19 UFC bouts by way of stoppage, going 7-12 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop for +5.28 units, dating back to his 2013 UFC debut. Jorge has a 12-7 record in the UFC, profiting for +3.11 units on the moneyline in his career in the octagon. Interestingly enough, one of the most profitable betting trends to back in Jorge Masvidal fights has been on his opponents ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, which has gone 7-12 for +2.06 units in Jorge’s eight-year UFC career.

Jorge Masvidal: Betting Trends

Since 2013 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win Inside the Distance7-12+5.28u
to Win Outright12-7+3.11u
Opponent to Win by Decision7-12+2.06u
Fight Goes Distance12-7+1.31u
Over13-6+1.02u

Kamaru Usman has won 9 of his 13 UFC bouts by way of decision, profiting for +9 units on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop. Usman is undefeated in the UFC with a 13-0 record and has profited for +6.26 units on the moneyline since his UFC debut back in 2015. Usman has stoppage victories in 4 of his 13 fights in the UFC, including 2 of his 3 title defenses. Usman has gone 4-9 on the ‘to Win Inside the Distance’ prop, profiting for +2.73 units.

Kamaru Usman: Betting Trends

Since 2015 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win by Decision9-4+9u
to Win Outright13-0+6.26u
Fight Goes Distance9-4+4.14u
Over10-3+3.69u
to Win Inside the Distance4-9+2.73u


Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal 2 Predictions

Based on the betting trends between both these fights, the most probable outcome looks to be Kamaru Usman picking up the victory via decision. However, Usman has already promised a stoppage victory over ‘Gamebred’, something that no UFC fighter has been able to do in Masvidal’s 19 fight UFC career. Usman and Masvidal have gone the distance in 20 of their combined 31 UFC bouts.

The way this fight breaks down is pretty simple. Masvidal is going to have to do some impactful damage on Usman at the begining of every round, otherwise, Usman is going to smother and lay in on his overwhelming ground and pound for the majority of the fight. Usman is too smart of a fighter to stand and bang with Jorge, especially after feeling his power in the first fight. Masvidal will have a very small window at the beginning of each round, if he’s not able to take advantage of the fight starting on the feet then it’s Usman’s fight to win.

The question then becomes, can Usman get the stoppage over Jorge? After seeing what Usman was able to do to Gilbert Burns at UFC 258, it would not be overly surprising to see Usman take Masvidal out with some devastating ground and pound. However, what would be surprising is to see Usman be able to knock Masvidal out in the stand-up, as Jorge has made a name for himself as one of the best boxers in the UFC, which would make a knock out victory, even more of a legacy win for Kamaru Usman, as he goes for 14 straight wins in the octagon.

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Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Predictions – UFC 261 Odds: Rose Namajunas has a 7-3 record in the UFC, with 2 of her 3 losses coming in title fights. Rose has profited for +7.7 units profit on the moneyline since her 2014 UFC debut, and with 4 wins by stoppage, she has gone 4-6 on the ‘Inside the Distance prop’ cashing for +6.89 units while doing so. Meanwhile, her opponent Weili Zhang has a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC, and with 3 wins on the judge’s scorecards, Zhang has gone 3-2 for +4.65 units profit, since in 2018 UFC Debut.

On Saturday, April 24th, these two women will square off for the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold, as the co-main event for UFC 261, in Jacksonville, Florida.

Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Odds

UFC 261Weili ZhangRose Namajunas
to Win Outright-189+154
Inside the Distance+220+300
to Win by Decision+170+400
Fight Goes DistanceYes (-137)No (-111)
Where/WhenVyStar Veterans Memorial ArenaSat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET

Odds via 1XBet

‘Thug’ Rose Namajunas comes into her 11th UFC fight with a 7-3 record. She is the former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion, and has a chance to become the first strawweight champion to hold the belt on two difference occassions. Beyond that, this is also Rose’s third title fight in this division, with the innagural women’s strawweight bout seeing her lose to Carla Esparza by decision at TUF20 back in 2014, only for her to win the title in dramatic fashion over Joanna Jędrzejczyk as a 6-1 underdog three years ago at UFC 217. Rose would then defend the title successfully against Joanna in the rematch a year later at UFC 223, fighting to a unanimous decision victory. Her next bout saw her lose the title to Jessica Andrade at UFC 237, with Andrade ending the fight with horrifying slam directly on Rose’s head, Rose was knocked unconscious, and the fight was stopped immediately. Rose would avenge that loss to Andrade a year later at UFC 251, winning over Andrade via split decision. With that, this will be the fourth time Namajunas fights for the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold.

After defeating Rose Namajunas with that devastating slam, Andrade would go on to defend the title just three months against the rising Chinese star Weili Zhang, a fight that took place in Shenzhen, China at UFC Fight Night 157. Zhang defeated Andrade in just 42 seconds, capturing the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold, making her the first ever Chinese champion in UFC history.

A year after winning the title, in the last UFC event with fans before the COVID-19 struck, Weili Zhang defended her UFC Women’s Strawweight strap against Joanna Jędrzejczyk at UFC 248 in March of 2020. In what will be remembered as one of the best female fights in UFC history and in Women’s MMA history, Zhang captured a very tight split decision, in a fight that media members saw go both ways. In the end, Zhang is now set to face Rose Namajunas, in the first UFC event with fans since the pandemic started.

Tale of the Tape: Zhang vs Namajunas

UFC Women’s StrawweightWeili ZhangRose Namajunas
Record21-19-4
Finish Rate81% (10 Wins by T/KO)67% (5 Wins by Submission)
Age3128
Height5’45’5
Reach63′65′

UFC Women’s Strawweight Division

Since 2020RecordWin %Profit (Units)Buy/Fade
‘Coin Flip’ Dog5-271%+3.33u‘Coin Flip’
Over23-1167.6%-2.71u-209
Favorites22-1264.7%-3.67u-183

Coming into this weekend’s event, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has cashed in 23 of the last 34 UFC bouts dating back to the start of 2020. While the ‘Over’ has failed to turn a profit at -2.71 units, there is betting value on this prop, based on the betting trend, at -209 or better, or by fading it at +209 or better. The betting favorite has cashed at a 64.7% rate since the start of 2020, going 22-12, but has also failed to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, the favorite has value in this division at -183 or better and has fading value at +183 or better.

Rose Namajunas has a 9-4 record as a professional, but is 7-3 in the UFC, with 2 of her 3 losses coming in title fights. ‘Thug’ Rose has profited +7.7 units on the moneyline in her UFC career since debuting in 2014. In that stretch, Rose has won 4 of her 10 fights by stoppage, profiting for +6.89 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, while going 3-7 for +3.55 units profit on the ‘to WIn by Decision’ prop. With 6 of her 10 fights ending before reaching the judge’s scorecards. The ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop has gone 6-4 for +0.92 units profit in her 7 year UFC career, with the ‘Under’ going a perfect 5-5 for a +0.7 unit profit in her career in the octagon.

Rose Namajunas: Betting Trends

Since 2014 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win Outright7-3+7.7u
Inside the Distance4-6+6.89u
to Win by Decision3-7+3.55u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance6-4+0.92u
Under5-5+0.7u

‘Magnum’ Weili Zhang has gone 5-0 in the UFC, cashing for +3.77 units profit since making her UFC debut in 2018. However, the most profitable way to back Zhang in her 5 fight run so far has been on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, where she is 3-2 for +4.65 units profit. Zhang has won 2 of her 5 fights by stoppage, going 2-3 for +3.14 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with the Under going 2-3 for +0.35 units profit.

Weili Zhang: Betting Trends

Since 2018 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win by Decision3-2+4.65u
to Win Outright5-0+3.77u
Inside the Distance2-3+3.14u
Under2-3+0.35u
Fight Goes Distance3-2+0.17u


Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Predictions

This fight is tough to break down from top to bottom. Weili Zhang should very well be the -190 betting favorite in this fight in a vacuum, but there seems to be a ton of intangible factors that are building up that could play a bit of a role in how this fight ends up playing out. With this fight being the first American UFC event with fans in attendance, it may very well be the most hostile environment Zhang has ever been in, especially considering Rose Namajunas’ recent comments concerning Zhang’s affiliation with communism.

With that being said, the moment could be too big for Rose, who has spoken publicly about her battle with anxiety and pre-fight jitters. With all of that in mind, while the betting line value looks to be on ‘Thug’ Rose at +155 currently, it would be very wise to wait until fight week and get a good look at both fights and where they may be at mentally and physically before placing a bet on this fight.

The path to victory for Rose would likely be a stoppage victory, because like many title fights, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor the champion. While it may be easy to envision Zhang pulling off the stoppage knock-out victory over Namajunas, ‘Thug’ Rose has shown her ability to drop her opponents in big fights, which leaves you to believe that Zhang will be more content to fight this fight on the outside if she finds her self up rounds headed into the later stages of the fight.

The betting value at the current moment in this fight looks to be on Rose ‘Inside the Distance’ at +300, or Zhang ‘by Decision at +170. Although if you’re backing Rose in this fight, it would probably be wise not to be greedy and settle at taking a shot at that juicy plus money number.

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Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Prediction – UFC 261 Odds: Valentina Shevchenko has won 5 of her 11 UFC bouts by way of the judge’s scorecards, going 5-6 on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, for +6.71 units profit, dating back to her 2015 UFC debut. Meanwhile, Jessica Andrade has won by stoppage in 6 of her 18 bouts since her 2013 UFC debut, going 6-12 on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, for +7.88 units profit. The two women square off for the UFC Women’s Flyweight gold on Saturday, April 24th at UFC 261.

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Odds

UFC 261Valentina ShevchenkoJessica Andrade
to Win Outright-556+374
Inside the Distance+140+400
to Win by Decision+135+1000
Fight Goes DistanceYes (+105)No (-149)
Where/WhenVyStar Veterans Memorial ArenaSat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET

Odds via 1XBet

Valentina Shevchenko is the -400 favorite, which is the shortest moneyline favorite she has been since winning the title over Joanna Jędrzejczyk as a -320 favorite back UFC 231 in 2018. In her four fights since then, Shevchenko has come in as an average betting favorite of -1000. This bout against the former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion, Jessica Andrade, could be one of her toughest tests to date in the 125lbs division. As for Andrade, this is just her second fight in the past three years, coming in as the betting underdog. Andrade made her return to Flyweight in her last bout at UFC Fight Island 6 against Katlyn Chookagian, winning the bout in the first round with a TKO body shot. The former 115lbs champ will look to pull off the unthinkable and get the win over the ‘Bullet,’ Shevchenko.

Tale of the Tape: Shevchenko vs Andrade

UFC Women’s FlyweightValentina ShevhcenkoJessica Andrade
Record20-321-8
Finish Rate65% (7 Wins by Submission)71% (8 Wins by T/KO)
Age3329
Height5’55’1
Reach65.5′62′

Andrade comes into UFC 261 with a 12-6 record in the UFC, dating back to her debut in 2013. Andrade has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 10 of her 18 octagon appearances. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Under’ in every bout in Jessica Andrade’s UFC career has gone 10-8 for +$788 profit. Andrade has 6 of her 12 wins by way of stoppage, going 6-12 for +6.97 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop going 10-8, for +4.87 units profit in her 18 UFC appearances.

Jessica Andrade: Betting Trends

Since 2013 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
Under10-8+7.88u
Inside the Distance6-12+6.97u
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance10-8+4.87u
to Win Fight12-6+3.24u
to Win by Decision6-12+2.31u
Opponent to Win Inside the Distance4-14+0.73u

Valentina Shevchenko is 9-2 in the UFC, profiting for +3.01 units on the moneyline in her 11 octagon appearances; she has won 5 of her 11 UFC bouts by way of the judge’s scorecards, going 5-6 on the ‘to Win by Decision prop for +6.71 units profit. The ‘Over’ and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ props have both gone 7-4 in her UFC career, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ turning a +4.31 units profit since her 2015 UFC debut. Shevchenko has never been stopped in the UFC< with her only two losses in the octagon coming to Amanda Nunes, at Bantamweight, both by way of decision.

Valentina Shevchenko: Betting Trends

Since 2015 UFC DebutRecordProfit (Units)
to Win by Decision5-6+6.71u
Fight Goes the Distance7-4+4.31u
to Win Outright9-2+3.01u
Over7-4+1.15u
Opponent to Win by Decision2-9+0.92u

Valentina Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade Predictions

As tough as this fight is to break down from a technical perspective, based on the betting odds, there is a pretty simple handicap for the way this one should play out. It is the classic story of the longer the fight goes, the more it favors the champion; and if Andrade has a chance to win this fight, her most probable path to victory to get on the inside and either drop Shevchenko cold or drop her and follow it up with some ground and pound or a choke. Beyond that, if Shevchenko can keep her distance and stay outside of the much shorter Andrade’s range, she should be able to cruise to a five-round decision. 

Jessica Andrade is a tough woman, and she may be Valentina’s toughest test to date at 125lbs pounds. However, considering Shevchenko was coming off an MCL surgery in her last appearance against Jennifer Maia, there may still be some betting value on the board on Shevchenko winning this fight on the judge’s scorecards. 

If you are backing Shevchenko in this fight, the most likely way she wins this fight is by decision, which still seems to have some value at the current price of +135 (via 1XBet). However, on the flip side, if you are backing Jessica Andrade to win this fight, while you are better off not being greedy and just taking the hefty plus money on her to win outright, there is no question that her most probable path to victory is to pick up a stoppage win. With that being said, Andrade may also be able to get Shevchenko down, gain top control, and stay on top of Shevchenko long enough to bank enough rounds to win the fight. 

Apart from picking a winner, the prop with the most betting value on the board in this fight at the current price is the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ at +105. Between these two women, 15 of their combined 29 UFC bouts have gone the distance. Based on implied probably, the +105 prop has a 48.8% chance of cashing, which is a mispricing of a line that has seen the fight goes the distance in more than half of these two women’s career octagonal appearances. 

By betting the fight to g the distance, you are, in a sense, backing both fighters by hoping Andrade can hold her own against the seemingly untouchable Shevchenko while also hoping that Valentina can live up to the expectations and handle the challenge that is Andrade. Out of all the bets on the board, this one seems to have the best market value.

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