UFC 262 Betting Look Ahead | UFC 262 Odds: The vacant UFC Lightweight championship is on the line as ‘do Bronx’ Charles Oliveira takes on ‘Iron’ Michael Chandler at UFC 262, Saturday, May 15th from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Prediction | UFC 262 Odds: Dating back to 2012, Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler have a combined record to the ‘Under’ of 25-12 for +17.3 units profit. The two square off in the main event of UFC 262, with the vacant UFC Lightweight championship on the line.
Oliveira comes in as the -122 favorite, with Chandler on the other side at even money. Oliveira hasn’t lost a fight since 2017 and has put together an 8-0 record since then, including 7 wins by stoppage. As for Chandler, he’s 1-0 in the UFC, and is on a 4 fight winning streak, with his last loss coming to Patricio Pitbull back in 2019.
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Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Odds
|UFC 262||Charles Oliveira||Michael Chandler|
|to Win Outright||-122||+100|
|Inside the Distance||+110||+197|
|to Win by Decision||+500||+450|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (+220)||No (-345)|
|Where/When||Toyota Center | Houston, TX||Sat May 15th | 10:00 PM ET|
Charles Oliveira opened as the -178 favorite back in March, with Chandler as the +146 underdog. Since then, heavy money has come in on Chandler, seeing him move all the way to an average line of +103, with Oliveira now sitting at -127.
Oliveira vs Chandler: Line Movement
Charles Oliveira holds a record of 30 wins and 8 losses in professional MMA, with a record of 18-8 (with 1 NC) in the UFC. Oliveira holds numerous UFC records, including most submissions at 14, and is tied for most finishes at 16. Oliveira has also secured 10 ‘Performance’ bonuses (a UFC record), 3 ‘Submission of the Night’ bonuses, and 3 ‘Fight of the Night’ bonuses. With a total of 16 bonuses, Oliveira is among just a handful of fighters who have earned over $800,000 in UFC ‘end of night’ bonuses.
As for Michael Chandler, he is a former NCAA Division I All American wrestler out of the University of Missouri, as well as the former, three-time Bellator Lightweight Champion. He holds a 22-5 record in professional MMA, with 26 of his 27 professional fights coming between Strikeforce (2-0), Bellator (18-5), and the UFC (1-0).
Oliveira will hold a significant reach advantage over Michael Chandler, with ‘do Bronx’ coming in at 5’10, with a 74-inch reach, Chandler is 5’8, with a 69-inch reach. Oliveira should have no issues making the 155lbs weight limit, having fought for the majority of his career at featherweight. As for Chandler, the veteran has been known for being in peak shape for his fights and has never had any issues making 155lbs. Chandler is 35 years old and has been known to have to cut down from 180 to 185lbs in training camp, something that is far outside of reality for Charles Oliveira, who is a decent size for the lightweight division but is much leaner than the thicker Michael Chandler.
Tale of the Tape: Oliveira vs Chandler
|UFC Lightweight||Charles Oliveira||Michael Chandler|
|Record||30-8-0 (1 No Contest)||22-5|
|Finish Rate||90% (19 Wins by Submission)||52% (16 Wins by T/KO)|
Charles Oliveira has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 14 of his last 21 fights in the UFC, dating back to 2013. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Under’ in each of those 21 fights has turned a profit of +$967. Meanwhile, Oliveira has 13 finishes in that stretch, going 13-8 for +8.78 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop.
Since his UFC debut in 2010, Oliveira has a betting record of 19-8 on the moneyline, turning a profit of +6.35 units on the moneyline.
Charles Oliveira: Betting Trends
|Since 2012||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Inside the Distance||13-8||+8.78u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||18-3||+6.91u|
|to Win Fight (Since 2010 UFC Debut)||19-8||+6.35u|
The most profitable betting trend to back in Michael Chandler’s UFC career has been the ‘Under’ which has cashed in 11 of his last 16 fights, turning a profit of +7.61 units. Chandler is 11-5 since 2013, with 8 of his 11 wins coming by way of stoppage, turning a profit of +4.01 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Chandler has been finished in 3 fights over the last eight years, with his opponent turning a profit of +5.3 units on the ‘Inside the DIstance’ prop, and with 2 losses by decision, Chandler’s opponents have turned a profit of +3.4 units on ‘to Win by Decision’
Michael Chandler: Betting Trends
|Since 2013||Record||Profit (Units)|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||3-13||+5.3u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||8-8||+4.01u|
|Opponent by Decision||2-14||+3.4u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||11-5||+2.9u|
|Opponent to Win Fight (Since 2011)||5-17||+3.86u|
|to Win Fight (Since 2011)||17-5||+3.49u|
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler Predictions
Based on each fighter’s individual betting trends, it seems like a no-brainer to handicap this fight to end before reaching the judge’s scorecards. When you put a fighter with the most stoppage victories in the UFC in Oliveira, up against a perennial finisher in Michael Chandler, you should be more than willing to wager that this one go Under.
While there is currently no market for the betting total in this fight just yet, the market agrees with the notion that this fight will not reach a decision, with the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop sitting at a steep -350 (via 5Dimes).
As far as the winner goes, it looks like Charles Oliveira has more value in this spot than Chandler, who is making just his second UFC appearance. Chandler comes into this fight with three straight wins by stoppage and is riding high in the public’s eye as a worthy contender for the UFC gold, after making short work of the Dan Hooker back at UFC 257.
Michael Chandler is closing in on becoming a chalk betting underdog and even has a chance of closing as the outright favorite. If that happens, you can not deny that the betting value will side unquestionably with Oliveira, who has one of the most deadly ground games in the UFC’s 155lbs division, something that Michael Chandler has rarely, if ever, had to deal with.
The main reason that Chandler was able to land such a devastating knockout punch to Dan Hooker, was because Hooker was constantly in the position to defend against the takedown, which left him leaving his hands down. In the case of Charles Oliveira, we are talking about a high-level jiu-jitsu player, who will, if anything, welcome the fight going to the ground.
When you consider how dangerous Oliveira is on the ground, it will be in Chandler’s best interest to keep this fight standing as long as he can, and look for that same, well-timed shot that he was able to land against Hooker, Henderson, and Outlaw. However, Oliveira has managed to improve his stand-up game significantly over the last few years and held his own against the likes of Kevin Lee, and Tony Ferguson. If Chandler isn’t able to find the button early in this fight, Oliveira’s output may begin to take over, which will lead to Chandler taking undisciplined shots and takedown attempts, which will leave him wide open to get his neck taken in some way shape or form.
Currently, the betting market has Oliveira as high as -115 (via SportsInteraction) to win this fight outright, and at +110 (via 5Dimes) to win ‘Inside the Distance’. While there isn’t a whole lot of value at +110 on the stoppage prop, you are likely to get a better number of the Oliveira moneyline as this bout reaches closer to fight night, as the betting public may continue to pour in on Michael Chandler.
If you are able to get ‘do Bronx’ at plus money at any point in the lead-up to this fight, it’s probably in your best interest to take it, regardless of how you think this fight plays out. While the stoppage victory seems like the most obvious path to victory for Oliveira, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him cruise to another blow out a victory on the scorecards, using his jiu-jitsu and ground game to secure an easy decision, similar to what he was able to do to Tony Ferguson. However, with this being a 5 round championship bout, you have to give the edge in the later rounds to the younger, and more agile Oliveira, especially against what could be a fatigued Chandler.
Take a look at the Under when it comes out, and if you’re backing Charles Oliveira in this one, wait until fight week, as that number is looking to be getting better and better as we get closer to UFC 262.
Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Prediction | UFC 262 Odds: Tony Ferguson’s back is against the wall at UFC 262 as he tries to avoid his third straight loss. El Cucuy takes on Beneil Dariush, who is on a six-fight win streak, dating back to November of 2018.
For the second straight fight, Ferguson finds himself as the betting underdog, with Beneil Dariush coming in as a -142 betting favorite against the potential future UFC Hall of Famer Ferguson, who is lined as the +118 underdog.
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Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Odds
|UFC 262||Tony Ferguson||Beneil Dariush|
|to Win Outright||+118||-142|
|Fight Reaches Round 3||Yes (-167)||No (+125)|
|Where/When||Toyota Center | Houston, TX||Sat May 15th | 10:00 PM ET|
For a very brief moment in time, this fight was lined with Tony Ferguson as the betting favorite, with the opening odds seeing him on the -125 chalk side. However, that changed quickly as the market came in heavily on Dariush, quickly pushing him from a +105 underdog to a -167 favorite. Since then, Ferguson has been as high as a +150 dog but is now sitting at an average line of +122. Meanwhile, Dariush has drifted from that original market move to -167, all the way down to a relatively affordable -148.
Ferguson vs Dariush: Line Movement
Tony Ferguson is six years older than Beneil Dariush at 37 years of age to Dariush’s 31. Ferguson will hold a 4-inch reach advantage, as well as a 1-inch height advantage. If Tony has the right game plan, that can play a huge factor. However, we have recently seen Tony lose as a strong betting favorite against Justin Gaethje in a fight that saw Ferguson holding an even more significant, 6-inch reach advantage. While Dariush is not as heavy-handed as Justin Gathje, he is more than willing to stand and bang, in similar fashion.
Tale of the Tape: Ferguson vs Dariush
|UFC Lightweight||Tony Ferguson||Beneil Dariush|
|Finish Rate||80% (12 Wins by T/KO)||65% (8 Wins by Submission)|
Tony Ferguson is 8-2 in his last 10 fights dating back to 2015 and has turned a profit of +2.22 units on the moneyline in that stretch. In those 10 bouts, Ferguson has 2 wins by decision, and 6 by stoppage, turning a profit of +2.05 units on the ‘Decision’ prop and +1.97 units on ‘Inside the Distance.’
Tony Ferguson: Betting Trends
|Since 2015||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Fight||8-2||+2.22u|
|to Win by Decision||2-8||+2.05u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||6-4||+1.97u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||7-3||+1.15u|
Beneil Dariush is 11-3-1 in his last 15 fights, dating back to 2015, and turned a profit of +5.82 units on the moneyline in that stretch. He has gone ‘Under’ the betting total in 9 of those 15 bouts, with the ‘Under’ prop profiting +5.3 units along the way. Dariush has 5 wins by decision, and 6 by stoppage in his last 15 octagon appearances, turning a profit of +4.15 units on the ‘Decision’ prop, and +3.16 units ‘Inside the Distance.’
Beneil Dariush: Betting Trends
|Since 2015||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Fight||11-3-1||+5.82u|
|to Win by Decision||5-10||+4.15u|
|Fight Goes Distance: No||9-6||+3.23u|
|to Win Inside the Distance||6-9||+3.16u|
|Opponent Inside the Distance||3-12||+2.44u|
Tony Ferguson vs Beneil Dariush Prediction
While this is a hard fight to break down, simply because it’s tough to count out Tony Ferguson in any fight he’s in. You have to acknowledge the betting value that we see on Beneil Dariush in this fight. Dariush currently sits as a -148 betting favorite, which is a relatively solid price considering Dariush has been lined as an average favorite of -172 in his last 11 wins and is facing a potentially past his prime Tony Ferguson, who is on the wrong side of the 35 and has taken back to back demoralizing beatings.
To make matters worse for Tony Ferguson, Beneil Dariush is a very durable fighter that may force Tony to push the pace, which may turn this one into another all-out war.
With this in mind, you have to take a strong look at the ‘Under’ in this fight when it becomes available. Currently, the closest market we have to a betting total right now is (via 1XBet) ‘Fight Reaches Round 3’, with the ‘Yes’ lined at -167 and the ‘No’ lined at +125. Based on that line, we can estimate the total will likely be priced at ‘Over 2.5 at -147’ and ‘Under 2.5 at +110.’ If that’s the case, you’ve got to go with the Under, as anything at plus money or better seems to be worth taking a shot on.
Tony Ferguson has his back against the wall, and apart from flat out saying he could be facing the chopping block if he losses this fight; even if he keeps his job, his reign as a top 10 lightweight would surely be in jeopardy. Recently we’ve seen other fighters with their backs against the wall come out with guns blazing, hoping to either get a finish or put on a good show while doing so. Which is precisely what Tony might do here, especially in front of a sold-out UFC crowd.
At the end of the day, with the way this line is moving, you’ll probably be able to get a decent price on Dariush come fight night, and an even better line on the ‘Under.’ While it’s never out of the realm of possibilities for Tony Ferguson to pull off something you are not expecting. It is very hard to argue against the fact that Tony’s best days might be behind him. The fighter with more of themselves left to give might end up being the one to win this contest, and if that’s the case, then look for Dariush to get the victory.
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