UFC Vegas 28 Picks and Best Bets: UFC Vegas 28 goes down on Saturday, June 5th from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The event is headlined by a heavyweight showdown between Jairzinho ‘Bigi Boy’ Rozenstruik and Contender Series heavyweight graduate Augusto Sakai.
Both fighters are coming off of respective losses and will look to bounce back and make a move in a division that is wide open outside of the top five.
⇢ UFC Betting Trends
The current UFC Vegas 28 odds see Rozenstruik as a slight -115 favorite to Sakai, who comes in as a short +108 underdog, making it the 18th ‘coin flip’ bout in the UFC heavyweight division over the last year and a half. The underdog has won 11 of the last 17 ‘coin flip’ bouts in the heavyweight division, going 11-6 for +4.96 units profit, since January 2020.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Augusto Sakai Pick
Coming into the event, Jairzinho Rozenstruik has won 5 of his 7 octagon appearances by way of stoppage, going 5-2 for +4.43 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. Meanwhile, Augusto Sakai is 4-1 in the octagon since his 2018 UFC debut, turning a marginal profit of +1.93 units on the moneyline in that stretch. Sakai has split his wins between stoppages and decisions, with two apiece, and his only stoppage loss coming in his last appearance against the now-defunct UFC heavyweight, Alistair Overeem.
This might be a situation where you are getting value on the sell-off we are seeing on Jair Rozenstruik, who was brought into the UFC booked as a heavyweight contender but has since fallen out of the UFC’s graces with a few lackluster performances. However, aside from being a very calculated and risk-averse fighter, Jairinzo Rozenstruik is also a high-level striker and should not be underestimated, even with a few bad losses on his record.
Rozenstruik likely gets the stoppage victory in this one, but even at the price of -115 (via 5Dimes) on the moneyline, you can’t go wrong backing Bigi Boy here. As for the betting total, while it’s easy to assume that two heavyweights in a five-round fight should almost certainly not go the distance, we have seen both Rozenstruik and Sakai reach the later rounds of their bouts as of late, which makes backing either side of the total in this one a very risky proposition. It’s too close to call when it comes to handicapping the duration of this bout, and you’re better off just picking a winner and moving on.
Walt Harris vs. Marcin Tybura Pick
Marcin Tybura has won 5 of his last 8 UFC appearances, with 4 of his last 5 wins coming by way of decision. Tybura has also managed to lose 3 of his last 8 octagon appearances by way of stoppage, making him a prime candidate to fade by backing his opponent on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop. However, his opponent, Walt Harris, has lost 4 of his last 10 UFC appearances by way of stoppage and is riding a two-fight losing streak, failing to pick up a win in almost two calendar years.
All in all, it’s a first round or bust type deal for Walt Harris here, and while Tybura has been vulnerable against heavy hitters in the past, it seems like there is some value on the Polak, facing a fighter in Harris who could be one loss away from finding himself outside of the UFC.
Tybura is lined a +225 (via BetOnline) to win by Decision, and while it wouldn’t be shocking to see this one go the full five minutes, you’re probably better off taking a small shot at the ‘Over 2.5 Rounds’ prop at +105 (via 5Dimes), and maybe pairing Tybura on the moneyline (-170 via 5Dimes) with another selection to create a +EV ‘If Bet.’
Roman Dolidze vs. Laureano Staropoli Pick
Roman Dolidze comes into this one with an 8-1 MMA record, going 2-1 so far in the UFC, while his opponent Laureano Staropoli has split 4 octagon appearances, going 2-2 since making his debut back in 2018. Dolidize is an animated fighter who may be his own worst enemy at times. Between Dolidze and Staropoli, 6 of their 7 UFC appearances have gone the distance. With that in mind, there may be some value on the underdog ‘Pepe’ at +132 (via BetOnline).
Dolidze showed a kink in his game in his last appearances against Trevin Giles, which was his gas tank. Dolidze is a blown-up middleweight with alot of muscle and may lack the stamina to go a full 15 minutes at an elite level in the UFC. If we’re assuming that the trend continues, and this fight goes the distance, you’d probably be best to be on the side of the fighter with the better conditioning down the stretch, take Staropoli in this one.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Miguel Baeza Pick
Santiago Ponzinibbio makes his second attempt at a successful UFC come back on Saturday as he comes in as the ‘coin flip’ underdog to ‘Carmela Thunder’ Miguel Baeza.
Ponzinibbio is coming off a devastating KO loss to Jingliang Li back in January at UFC on ABC, his first fight back since contracting a life-threatening blood infection that almost ended his career.
Coming into the bout, Ponzinibbio is 8-2 in his last 10 UFC appearances, dating back to 2015. However, it’s incredibly difficult to judge this fighter based on his previous form, considering how bad he looked in his most recent performance.
As for Baeza, he’s 4-0 since making his debut on the Contender Series back in 2019, with 3 of his 4 wins coming by way of stoppage.
Analytically, the market value looks to be on Ponzinibbio here. However, its analytics don’t tell the human side of the story, and that’s why we’re getting some serious betting value on Miguel Baeza at almost a pick’em price (-115 via 5Dimes).
As for the betting total, between Ponzinibbio and Baeza, 9 of their last 14 combined UFC appearances have ended by stoppage. If there’s still any question about the Argentine’s conditioning or chin, they will be answered quickly against the slick moving and hard-hitting Baeza. At the current price of -150 (via 5Dimes), the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop has a ton of value.
Duško Todorović vs. Gregory Rodrigues Pick
Dusko Todorovic is 1-1 in the UFC and is coming off the first loss of his MMA career back at UFC on ABC. He takes on the current LFA Middleweight champion Gregory Rodrigues on short notice. Todorovic is a -122 (via 5Dimes) betting favorite. Still, he is in tough against the very dangerous and hungry Rodrigues, who is making his UFC debut after competing just two weeks ago at LFA 108.
We saw Todorovic rush in with a head of steam in his last fight against Punahele Soriano, a strategy that ultimately got him knocked out with just 12 seconds remaining in the first round. If Todorovic has learned from that outing, he will be much more measured and conservative this time around. As for Rodrigues, he is coming off of back-to-back wins spanning just two months, with both wins coming within the first seven minutes of the fight.
While Rodrigues is coming into this fight on a red hot roll, we did see him stumble in his only UFC octagon appearance, taking a knock-out loss to Jordan Williams in the Contender Series back in September of 2020. When you add in the potential octagon jitters, the third fight in four months factor, as well as the short notice call, you gotta side with the Serbian To
dorovic, who will be looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career.
As for the betting total, the market expects this one to be short-lived, with the total sitting at just ‘1.5 Rounds’ with the chalk side on the ‘Over’ at -115 (via SportsInteraction), and the ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop sitting at -270. Considering that Dusko’s path to victory relies on him being much more calculated than in his previous performance while adding in the factors regarding Rodrigues and his path to this match-up, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this fight go further than we think. Take the Over.
Tom Breese vs. Antônio Arroyo Pick
Tom Breese comes in as a steep -240 favorite against Antonio Arroyo. Breese is 5-3 in the UFC since making his debut in 2015, with 4 of his 5 wins coming by way of stoppage. He takes on a struggling Arroyo, who is winless in the UFC since winning his octagon debut in the 2019 season of the Contender Series. Arroyo is coming off a disappointing and underwhelming loss to UFC newcomer Deron Winn in a fight that was hailed as one of the worst UFC bouts of 2020. Arroyo showed pedestrian skill level against Winn and could very well be a lost cause in the UFC going forward.
The way this breaks down is pretty simple. If Arroyo sticks to his game plan, he probably losses this fight by way of decision. If Tom Breese sticks to his game plan, Arroyo probably losses this fight by stoppage. It’s a tale of two fight paths that both lead to Tom Breese getting the victory. The total is too close to call, but one thing is forsure, even at the steep price of -240 (via 5Dimes), Tom Breese is the way to go here.
Tanner Boser vs. Ilir Latifi Pick
The Canadian heavyweight prospect Tanner Boser finds himself 3-2 in the UFC, coming off a decision loss to former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski back in November of last year. He is taking a big step down in competition, taking on Ilir Latifi, 7-6 in the UFC, and riding a 3 fight losing streak.
While Latifi sits as high as +164 at some books, there is probably some market value on the Swede in this spot, but by and large, there is just no good reason to be backing a 37-year-old heavyweight who is barely above .500 in the octagon against someone as talented as Tanner Boser.
With that said, at -160, you’re paying a steep price to back a fighter in Boser who still hasn’t exactly proven his worth. Not to mention against a UFC veteran in Latifi, who has his back against the wall. As far as a winner goes, this fight is a pass.
The real betting value in this fight may be on the total. Both Latifi and Boser have gone the distance 3 of their last 5 octagon appearances, which has the market favoring this one to go the distance at -120. However, with Latifi in a must-win situation, and Boser trying to get back on track after a setback loss, we may be in store for some unexpected fireworks. At +130 (via Pinnacle) on the ‘Under 2.5 Rounds’ prop, you can’t go wrong.
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Muslim Salikhov Pick
Francisco Trinaldo is a bonafide decision machine, with 12 wins by decision in his professional MMA career. He takes on Muslim Salikhov as a sizable underdog, although he may be overlooked by the betting market. Even if Trinaldo only had about a 40% chance of winning this fight, he should still be lined closed to +150, while you can currently get him at the price of +200 (via Bovada).
AlMac’s Best Bets
|1.7% (0.68u)||Jairzinho Rozenstruik (to Win Fight)||-115||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Harris/Tybura (Over 2.5 Rounds)||+105||5Dimes|
|2.5% (1u)||Dolidze/Staropoli (Fight Goes Distance)||-140||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Laureano Staropoli (to Win Fight)||+132||BetOnline|
|2.2% (0.88u)||Ponzinibbio/Baeza (Under 2.5 Rounds)||-150||5Dimes|
|2.2% (0.88u)||Miguel Baeza (to Win Fight)||-115||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Todorovic/Rodriguez (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-115||SportsInteraction|
|1% (0.4u)||Dusko Todorovic (to Win Fight)||-122||5Dimes|
|1.4% (0.56u)||Ariane Lipski (to Win Fight)||+235||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Lipski/deLaRosa (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+200||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Boser/Latifi (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+130||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Trinaldo/Salikhov (Over 2.5 Rounds)||-135||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Amirkhani/Kirk (Fight Goes Distance)||+138||WilliamHill|
|1% (0.4u)||Kamuela Kirk (to Win Fight)||+170||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Francisco Trinaldo (to Win Fight)||+200||Bovada|
|1% (0.4u)||Fiorot/Ricci (Over 1.5 Rounds)||-125||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Alan Patrick (to Win Fight)||+270||BetOnline|
|1% (0.4u)||Patrick/Jones (Over 2.5 Rounds)||-110||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Sean Woodson (to Win Fight)||-150||CoolBet|
|1% (0.4u)||Woodson/Zala (Under 2.5 Rounds)||+225||5Dimes|
|1% (0.4u)||Claudio Puelles (to Win Fight)||+197||Pinnacle|
|1% (0.4u)||Puelles/Leavitt (Over 2.5 Rounds)||+112||5Dimes|
|2.4% (0.96u)||Marcin Tybura + Tom Breese (Parlay)||+125||5Dimes|
@AlMacOdds 2021 MMA Record: 216-246, +12.13u Verified via BetMMA.tips MMA Record Since 2020: 700-626, +26.91u
For all the latest UFC betting content, keep it locked to SparkSports.ca