UFC Vegas 5: Best Bets

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Spark Sports 2020 MMA Betting Record:
283-159, +12.85u
(Verified via OddsPortal)

Bet on Xbet

Shahbayzan vs Brunson – Main Event Betting Guide
(AlMac’s Article via MMASucka)

UFC Vegas 5: 5 keys to victory for Derek Brunson
(AlMac’s Article via Fansided MMA)

UFC Women’s Flyweight
Joanne Calderwood vs. Jennifer Maia

This is one where I think the value is actually on the underdog. I respect Joanne Calderwood’s stand-up game, but I don’t know if she’s going to be able to utilize it against a smart fighter like Jennifer Maia. we’re also banking on that Women’s Flyweight trend since the start of 2020, the underdog has gone 9-9 for +8.8u profit, i’ve been on almost all of those dogs, so I am willing to put a little bit on the line against the A-side in Calderwood here. Give me Jennifer Maia on the moneyline at +125.

UFC Men’s Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs. Randy Brown

Vicente Luque is ranked #12 in the UFC Men’s Welterweight division right now, he’s taking on Randy Brown, who is currently ranked well outside of the top 15 in the division, but he’s coming off two stoppage victories in a row. Vicente Luque is the silent assassin, he doesn’t get alot of coverage but he’s a very well rounded fighter, we seen him piece up Niko Price back in May at UFC 249, but look stylistically i think this is a pretty bad match up for Luque. He’s giving up alot of height to his opponent at 6’3 with him being just 5’11, and Randy Brown also has a 2 inch reach advantage in this one. I think this fight is alot closer than what the odds indicate, and you look at these two fighters and looks like Vicente Luque is in a class above Randy Brown, considering Luque’s only two losses over the last three years are to Stephen Wonderboy Thompson and Leon Edwards, but when we’re talking about Randy Brown, I don’t know exactly what it is, but the UFC obviously believes in him enough to give him a shot at a ranked opponent. It’s super tough to call, I think one way or another someone gets finished here. Although there’s really no value on the ‘Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance’ prop at -200. Yea this is a really interesting fight, because I have a hard time seeing Luque getting the finish, although Nike Price beat Brown by knock out form the bottom position, and Vicente Luque pieced up Niko Price on two different occasions. I think if you’re backing Vicente Luque you’re best to bet him Inside the Distance because I feel like there’s a more clear path for Randy Brown to win this one by decision than there is for Luque, whereas Luque has a clearer path to win this one by stoppage. So it’s really tough. Ugh, while I think there is probably more value as far as measure of expectation goes on Randy Brown in this one. I think I just gotta punt and take a shot at Randy Brown here, and that’s not taking anything away from Vicente Luque, look he probably wins this fight, but the odds are a little bit lop sided here I think. I like the Over 2.5 Rounds at +100, and I like getting Randy Brown at +170 on the moneyline here, both small 1% plays.

UFC Vegas 5
3.4% – Brunson/Shahbayzan u1.5 (-120)
3.1% – Edmen Shahbazyan (T/KO or DQ) -161
2.5% – Jennifer Maia +125
1% – Luque/Brown o2.5 (+100)
1% – Randy Brown +140
1% – Lando Vannata -157
1% – Vannata/Green u2.5 (+256)
1% – Giles/Holland o2.5 (-112)
1% – Trevin Giles +175
1% – Herman/Meerschaert u2.5 (-120)

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