Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Predictions – UFC 261 Odds: Rose Namajunas has a 7-3 record in the UFC, with 2 of her 3 losses coming in title fights. Rose has profited for +7.7 units profit on the moneyline since her 2014 UFC debut, and with 4 wins by stoppage, she has gone 4-6 on the ‘Inside the Distance prop’ cashing for +6.89 units while doing so. Meanwhile, her opponent Weili Zhang has a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC, and with 3 wins on the judge’s scorecards, Zhang has gone 3-2 for +4.65 units profit, since in 2018 UFC Debut.
On Saturday, April 24th, these two women will square off for the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold, as the co-main event for UFC 261, in Jacksonville, Florida.
Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Odds
|UFC 261||Weili Zhang||Rose Namajunas|
|to Win Outright||-189||+154|
|Inside the Distance||+220||+300|
|to Win by Decision||+170||+400|
|Fight Goes Distance||Yes (-137)||No (-111)|
|Where/When||VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena||Sat April 24th | 10:00 PM ET|
‘Thug’ Rose Namajunas comes into her 11th UFC fight with a 7-3 record. She is the former UFC Women’s Strawweight champion, and has a chance to become the first strawweight champion to hold the belt on two difference occassions. Beyond that, this is also Rose’s third title fight in this division, with the innagural women’s strawweight bout seeing her lose to Carla Esparza by decision at TUF20 back in 2014, only for her to win the title in dramatic fashion over Joanna Jędrzejczyk as a 6-1 underdog three years ago at UFC 217. Rose would then defend the title successfully against Joanna in the rematch a year later at UFC 223, fighting to a unanimous decision victory. Her next bout saw her lose the title to Jessica Andrade at UFC 237, with Andrade ending the fight with horrifying slam directly on Rose’s head, Rose was knocked unconscious, and the fight was stopped immediately. Rose would avenge that loss to Andrade a year later at UFC 251, winning over Andrade via split decision. With that, this will be the fourth time Namajunas fights for the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold.
After defeating Rose Namajunas with that devastating slam, Andrade would go on to defend the title just three months against the rising Chinese star Weili Zhang, a fight that took place in Shenzhen, China at UFC Fight Night 157. Zhang defeated Andrade in just 42 seconds, capturing the UFC Women’s Strawweight gold, making her the first ever Chinese champion in UFC history.
A year after winning the title, in the last UFC event with fans before the COVID-19 struck, Weili Zhang defended her UFC Women’s Strawweight strap against Joanna Jędrzejczyk at UFC 248 in March of 2020. In what will be remembered as one of the best female fights in UFC history and in Women’s MMA history, Zhang captured a very tight split decision, in a fight that media members saw go both ways. In the end, Zhang is now set to face Rose Namajunas, in the first UFC event with fans since the pandemic started.
Tale of the Tape: Zhang vs Namajunas
|UFC Women’s Strawweight||Weili Zhang||Rose Namajunas|
|Finish Rate||81% (10 Wins by T/KO)||67% (5 Wins by Submission)|
UFC Women’s Strawweight Division
|Since 2020||Record||Win %||Profit (Units)||Buy/Fade|
|‘Coin Flip’ Dog||5-2||71%||+3.33u||‘Coin Flip’|
Coming into this weekend’s event, the ‘Over’ in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division has cashed in 23 of the last 34 UFC bouts dating back to the start of 2020. While the ‘Over’ has failed to turn a profit at -2.71 units, there is betting value on this prop, based on the betting trend, at -209 or better, or by fading it at +209 or better. The betting favorite has cashed at a 64.7% rate since the start of 2020, going 22-12, but has also failed to turn a profit. Based on the betting trend, the favorite has value in this division at -183 or better and has fading value at +183 or better.
Rose Namajunas has a 9-4 record as a professional, but is 7-3 in the UFC, with 2 of her 3 losses coming in title fights. ‘Thug’ Rose has profited +7.7 units on the moneyline in her UFC career since debuting in 2014. In that stretch, Rose has won 4 of her 10 fights by stoppage, profiting for +6.89 units on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, while going 3-7 for +3.55 units profit on the ‘to WIn by Decision’ prop. With 6 of her 10 fights ending before reaching the judge’s score cards. The ‘Fight Goes the Distance: No’ prop has gone 6-4 for +0.92 units profit in her 7 year UFC career, with the Under going a perfect 5-5 for a +0.7 unit profit in her career in the octagon.
Rose Namajunas: Betting Trends
|Since 2014 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win Outright||7-3||+7.7u|
|Inside the Distance||4-6||+6.89u|
|to Win by Decision||3-7||+3.55u|
|Fight Doesn’t Go Distance||6-4||+0.92u|
‘Magnum’ Weili Zhang has gone 5-0 in the UFC, cashing for +3.77 units profit since making her UFC debut in 2018. However, the most profitable way to back Zhang in her 5 fight run so far has been on the ‘to Win by Decision’ prop, where she is 3-2 for +4.65 units profit. Zhang has won 2 of her 5 fights by stoppage, going 2-3 for +3.14 units profit on the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop, with the Under going 2-3 for +0.35 units profit.
Weili Zhang: Betting Trends
|Since 2018 UFC Debut||Record||Profit (Units)|
|to Win by Decision||3-2||+4.65u|
|to Win Outright||5-0||+3.77u|
|Inside the Distance||2-3||+3.14u|
|Fight Goes Distance||3-2||+0.17u|
Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas Predictions
This fight is tough to break down from top to bottom. Weili Zhang should very well be the -190 betting favorite in this fight in a vacuum, but there seems to be a ton of intangible factors that are building up that could play a bit of a role in how this fight ends up playing out. With this fight being the first American UFC event with fans in attendance, it may very well be the most hostile environment Zhang has ever been in, especially considering Rose Namajunas’ recent comments concerning Zhang’s affiliation with communism.
With that being said, the moment could be too big for Rose, who has spoken publicly about her battle with anxiety and pre-fight jitters. With all of that in mind, while the betting line value looks to be on ‘Thug’ Rose at +155 currently, it would be very wise to wait until fight week and get a good look at both fights and where they may be at mentally and physically before placing a bet on this fight.
The path to victory for Rose would likely be a stoppage victory, because like many title fights, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor the champion. While it may be easy to envision Zhang pulling off the stoppage knock-out victory over Namajunas, ‘Thug’ Rose has shown her ability to drop her opponents in big fights, which leaves you to believe that Zhang will be more content to fight this fight on the outside if she finds her self up rounds headed into the later stages of the fight.
The betting value at the current moment in this fight looks to be on Rose ‘Inside the Distance’ at +300, or Zhang ‘by Decision at +170. Although if you’re backing Rose in this fight, it would probably be wise not to be greedy and settle at taking a shot at that juicy plus money number.